At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP market identifier 33611 reported a $2,480 typical observed asking-rent index, up only 0.01% from a year earlier. ZORI is blended across rental types, so it is an index of observed asking rents rather than a rent quote for a particular bedroom or home. Its matched Census ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,778; that survey concerns occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The asking index stands 39.5% above that backward-looking survey median, a source and timing difference that prevents treating either figure as a substitute for the other.
History makes the current near-stall more notable. The exact same-month one-year rent-history measure was 0.005%, versus 1.63% annualized across three years and 5.60% annualized across five years. Thus, recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the materially stronger longer path. The record contains 138 direct Zillow ZIP observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns, with 100% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.75%, suggesting that past month-to-month index movement was relatively contained, but it does not make a single current reading certain. The largest peak-to-trough historical retreat reached 2.23%, a limited drawdown that still shows rents have not moved in only one direction. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,128 for momentum, 1,156 for stability, and 1,939 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view is a scaling exercise rather than a set of observed bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,002 for a studio, $2,131 for one bedroom, $2,480 for two bedrooms, $3,167 for three bedrooms, and $3,864 for four bedrooms. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder behind that scale is $2,010, $2,140, $2,490, $3,180, and $3,880, respectively. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The tight alignment between the modelled two-bedroom estimate and the headline index is mechanical because the ladder is used to scale that index; it is not confirmation that measured two-bedroom asking rent equals either figure.
The current asking-rent screen is tighter than the area-wide income midpoint. Annualizing the ZIP ZORI and applying a 30% housing-cost share produces required income of $99,200, compared with ACS median household income of $90,910; the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 32.7%. That calculation is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports 8,350 occupied renter homes, of which 4,317, or 51.7%, had gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of household income. Because the burden statistic uses survey gross rent, including selected utilities, and reflects occupied renter households rather than current listings, it does not prove the affordability of any specific available unit. It does, however, frame the current asking index against a renter population already showing substantial measured cost pressure.
The housing base is mixed rather than exclusively renter-oriented. Of 19,334 housing units in the matched ZCTA, 18,047 were occupied, yielding a 6.7% all-housing vacancy rate; the ZIP’s renter share was 46.3%. Structure counts include 10,687 single-family units and 3,798 units in large multifamily structures. Those stock measures provide context for how rental and owner occupancy coexist, but they do not describe lease terms, unit condition, or current asking rents. Vacant-for-rent homes are only one component of the vacant inventory, and the overall vacancy rate cannot establish availability, competition, or pricing for a particular property. The ACS housing measures are survey estimates, so they should be read as area-level composition rather than a live listing census.
For wider context only, the Tampa city-scope rent is $1,999, the Hillsborough County-scope rent is $2,025, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro-scope rent is $2,020. Each is below the ZIP-level ZORI, but none is a substitute for the ZIP observation because city, county, and metro figures cover wider geographies. The ZIP’s renter-burden share is lower than the corresponding Tampa city and Hillsborough County context measures, while its renter share falls between those broader figures. The metro rent-to-income context is close to the ZIP arithmetic screen, yet metro apartment vacancy and apartment marketing-time figures are separate apartment-market measures, not replacements for the ZIP’s all-housing vacancy rate or its blended asking-rent index. The main comparison is therefore one of relative level, not proof of local rental conditions.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation supplies a different market lens. Median sold price was $584,868, up 4.44% year over year, with 233 homes sold and a median 22 days on market. Resale inventory was 239 homes and months of supply was 3.1. Sale-to-list signals remained below list on average: the average sale-to-list ratio was 97.19%, while 14.11% of sales closed above list. This is direct ZIP for-sale/resale evidence, not rental transactions, rental comps, or property economics. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 5.09% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The resale price increase challenges the flat one-year rent reading, creating a tension between a rising sold-price measure and a recently level asking-rent index rather than a unified signal.
Several limits remain material. ZORI cannot identify the actual bedroom mix, lease duration, concessions, utilities, furnishings, or condition of a specific offering; ACS cannot update occupied-renter conditions to the present; and HUD standards should not be read as observed asking rents. A property-level review would need to verify the unit’s bedroom count, advertised rent, included utilities, concessions, availability date, and building type before comparing it with the modelled ladder or the gross-rent survey. It would also need separate direct resale transaction details if evaluating the Redfin evidence, since an area median sold price does not describe an individual asset. The central question raised by the packet is whether a specific current listing’s all-in terms resemble the blended asking index, rather than whether any single area statistic can answer that question alone.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was essentially unchanged over the one-year history measure, while the three-year and five-year annualized measures remained positive. That contrast means the latest direction does not extend the longer historical growth pattern. Full observation coverage and low measured variability strengthen the historical record, but they do not convert its backward-looking movement into a forecast.","title":"Recent rent direction is flat despite stronger multi-year history"},{"body":"The 30% screen based on annualized ZIP ZORI requires income above the ACS median household income. More than half of surveyed renter households also reported gross-rent burdens of at least 30%. These figures describe area-level arithmetic and survey conditions, not a qualification threshold or a finding about the affordability of a specific listed home.","title":"Current asking-rent arithmetic exceeds the median-income midpoint"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom estimates were generated by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. Their closeness to HUD values reflects the construction method. They are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents, while HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative standard rather than evidence of active asking prices.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled through HUD standards"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a higher year-over-year median sold price alongside a nearly flat one-year asking-rent index. Sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes describe the for-sale market only. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price figure is useful solely as a cross-source screen and cannot establish property-level economics, returns, or rental demand.","title":"Resale pricing and rent momentum point in different directions"}],"risks":["The gap between a blended current asking-rent index and the ACS median gross-rent survey can reflect timing, utility treatment, tenant composition, and rental-type mix; it cannot establish a specific unit’s attainable rent.","Low historical variability and a limited maximum drawdown describe prior index behavior, but the current one-year slowdown means a single ZORI snapshot should not be treated as a durable direction signal.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values and the bedroom ladder are administrative scaling inputs, so using them as observed bedroom asking rents would overstate the precision of the modelled estimates.","Redfin resale indicators concern sold homes and active for-sale inventory; they may tension with rent measures, but they do not show leasing velocity, rent concessions, expenses, or individual-property returns."],"qa":[{"a":"The two values measure different evidence universes. ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Timing, renter occupancy, utility treatment, and rental mix can all produce a difference without making either source incorrect.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for maintaining a transparent size relationship around the blended asking-rent index, but they are not directly measured bedroom-specific rents and should not be interpreted as listing quotes.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates measured market rents?"},{"a":"It is an arithmetic screen: annualized ZIP ZORI divided by a 30% housing-cost share. It is not financial advice, a recommended budget, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden result is separate evidence showing the share of surveyed renter households whose reported gross rent reached that threshold.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price in a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. The ratio provides a cross-source comparison between an asking-rent index and a resale-price median. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or a measure of a specific home’s operating economics.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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