In 33612, the sharpest measured tension is that a relatively low current asking-rent index sits beside a demanding income and burden picture. Zillow ZIP ZORI is $1,545, while matched ZCTA median household income is $47,199. Dividing the monthly asking-rent index into annual income produces a 39.3% screen, and the annual income required for that rent at 30% is $61,800. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 62.4% of surveyed occupied renter households reported spending at least the burden threshold on rent, a broad household measure that does not establish the situation of any particular available home.
The rent path adds moderation rather than a simple acceleration story. The exact same-month one-year annualized ZIP ZORI change was 2.5%, the three-year measure was 1.0%, and the five-year measure was 5.5%. Recent direction therefore confirms that rents remained above prior levels, but it breaks from the materially faster pace visible across the longer five-year record. Monthly movements translate to 3.4% annualized variability, so one current rent snapshot deserves measured rather than absolute confidence. The historical series also recorded a 4.0% maximum drawdown. Coverage is complete across 122 observations, supporting continuity of measurement rather than a claim about future rents. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,599 for momentum, 2,126 for stability, and 2,092 for the balanced measure; lower ranks place higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source scope explains why rent figures should not be treated as substitutes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The matched Census ZCTA median gross rent was $1,352 with a $40 margin of error, placing the current Zillow index 14.3% above that survey median. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent: the local two-bedroom standard is $1,750, with ZORI at 88.3% of that benchmark. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, of $1,245 for a studio, $1,324 for one bedroom, $1,545 for two bedrooms, $1,978 for three bedrooms, and $2,401 for four bedrooms.
Wider benchmarks show that the ZIP-level rent reading is below surrounding context, even as its household screens are tighter. Tampa city context shows a $1,999 rent level, a 49.7% renter share, and an 8.9% vacancy rate; Hillsborough County context shows $2,025, 38.5%, and 7.5%, respectively; and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro context shows $2,020 rent, a 32.6% rent-to-income screen, and 8.6% apartment vacancy. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-geography context only, not alternate ZIP estimates or direct substitutes for 33612 observations. The comparison reinforces the measured tension: lower ZIP asking rent does not automatically imply a looser affordability screen when local reported income is also lower.
The matched ZCTA housing base contains 49,005 people and 21,489 housing units, of which 19,020 were occupied and 2,469 were vacant, yielding an 11.5% vacancy rate. Renters occupied 11,944 homes versus 7,076 owner-occupied homes, making the renter share 62.8%. The stock includes 10,443 single-family units and 4,083 units in large multifamily structures, showing that neither structure type represents the entire housing base. There were 1,341 units classified as vacant for rent. That count is useful for describing the survey-era stock, but it neither proves current availability nor identifies pricing, condition, concessions, or tenancy terms for a specific unit. Likewise, the burden statistic is a household-level survey result rather than evidence about a particular lease.
Redfin supplies a distinct for-sale signal through a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $347,421, up 6.1% from the comparable prior period. The observation recorded 95 homes sold and 25 days on market, alongside inventory of 97 homes and 3.1 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 97.7%, while 16.3% of sales closed above list. Together, these measures describe resale pricing, liquidity, marketing time, available for-sale stock, and negotiation signals only. They cannot be used as rental comparables, as evidence of a particular property’s income, or as a substitute for the asking-rent and ACS household measures.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin median sold price gives a 5.3% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The resale evidence challenges a simplistic rent-only reading: sold prices rose faster than the one-year asking-rent index while the ZIP also showed a high reported renter-burden share and a rent-to-income screen above the stated threshold. Conversely, the ZIP’s asking-rent index remains below the wider city, county, and metro rent contexts. The resulting tension is not resolved by either source: resale data describe transactions of sold homes, while ZORI describes typical observed asking rents across rental types.
Useful property-level checks should keep these evidence universes separate. Verify the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, unit size, utility billing, lease concessions, listing date, condition, legal unit configuration, and whether a listing is genuinely available rather than merely marketed. For a resale comparison, confirm the transaction date, property type, sale condition, and list-price history rather than treating the ZIP median as a valuation for an individual address. Readers should also distinguish a HUD administrative standard from a landlord’s asking price and an ACS occupied-household result from a live listing. These checks narrow the gap between broad ZIP measurements and a specific property without turning historical data, vacancy counts, burden shares, or resale observations into predictions.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZIP ZORI of $1,545 is below broader city, county, and metro rent context, yet the matched ZCTA median household income is comparatively low. The resulting 39.3% asking-rent-to-income screen exceeds the stated 30% arithmetic threshold. ACS also reports that 62.4% of occupied renter households were burdened at that threshold or above, though that survey result cannot describe a particular rental unit.","title":"Affordability pressure is the central ZIP-level tension"},{"body":"Exact same-month annualized ZORI growth was 2.5% over one year, 1.0% over three years, and 5.5% over five years. That sequence shows positive recent movement but a substantial slowdown from the longer historical pace. Complete history coverage and 122 observations improve continuity, while annualized variability and the recorded drawdown limit confidence in treating one current index reading as fixed.","title":"Recent rent growth is positive but slower than the long path"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures scale ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for showing the relative ladder implied by local HUD standards, but they are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, while Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index and ACS gross rent reflects occupied renter homes with selected utilities.","title":"Bedroom figures are model outputs, not observed rent medians"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation showed a rising median sold price, measurable sales volume, short marketing time, and a sale-to-list result below full list on average. Those figures describe the for-sale market only. The 5.3% annualized-rent-to-sold-price screen is a cross-source ratio, not a measure of operating income, property expenses, cap rate, or expected return.","title":"Resale evidence creates a separate price-versus-rent tension"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index and does not identify the actual rent, availability, size, condition, lease term, utility treatment, or concessions for a particular property.","ACS ZCTA results are five-year survey estimates for occupied homes, carry reported margins of error, and should not be read as a live rental listing inventory or current tenant ledger.","Vacancy and renter-burden figures describe broad survey categories; neither can prove that a specific unit is vacant, affordable, accessible, or occupied by a household with similar circumstances.","Redfin resale statistics concern homes that sold in a rolling ZIP observation, so they cannot establish rental income, operating costs, valuation, financing terms, or the economics of an individual address."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures describe different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, occupied-versus-advertised status, utility treatment, and rental mix can therefore produce different values without either source being invalid.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They illustrate a bedroom-size relationship implied by that method. They are not measured bedroom asking rents, executed lease rents, apartment-class medians, or evidence of the price for a specific available unit.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"The one-year, three-year, and five-year same-month measures indicate that recent asking-rent growth remained positive but was much slower than the longer five-year pace. Complete coverage supports continuity of the record, but annualized variability and the observed maximum drawdown show that monthly index movement has not been perfectly smooth. The history is descriptive and backward-looking, not predictive.","q":"What does the rent history indicate about confidence in the current index?"},{"a":"Redfin should be read as direct ZIP for-sale evidence: sold price, sales count, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not a rental-comparable source. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio; it does not include expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy performance, or property-specific rent.","q":"How should the Redfin resale data be used with the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":826.992367},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":825.263823},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":834.141161},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":837.588754},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":850.215179},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":856.600756},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":859.851376},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":857.250893},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":860.564069},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":871.366914},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":877.565657},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":883.705556},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":888.708538},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":902.504347},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":906.7607},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":906.284166},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":900.062395},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":904.215171},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":911.469495},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":917.689378},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":920.96057},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":919.697086},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":922.530092},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":928.745721},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":930.287429},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":925.895001},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":933.12988},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":942.106878},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":960.614095},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":954.320685},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":965.791953},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":974.895736},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":984.164012},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":992.441865},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":997.614067},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1004.352587},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1011.457975},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1022.009389},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1025.644033},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1031.568202},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1030.504305},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1045.218393},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1044.664235},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1047.766494},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1050.331887},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1054.547685},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1067.814939},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1067.478184},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1066.959627},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1050.05028},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1048.36022},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1051.497949},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1062.109813},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1078.017641},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1081.212264},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1091.403253},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1092.316463},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1093.014281},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1104.520068},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1120.882581},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1140.823037},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1182.36935},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1222.787016},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1277.441547},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1301.743613},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1318.67902},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1344.490904},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1366.072201},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1407.471221},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1448.748346},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1473.204996},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1488.948953},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1491.548923},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1501.260535},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1511.380961},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1509.239092},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1506.94886},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1518.806869},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1518.037472},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1529.222324},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1510.588693},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1499.407402},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1490.46273},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1491.066476},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1506.781796},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1500.581321},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1504.04629},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1478.514946},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1484.463299},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1468.195288},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1480.128673},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1476.797655},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1492.019117},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1492.032279},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1498.657895},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1509.781068},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1534.318091},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1549.680463},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1539.403859},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1527.337077},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1519.933999},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1533.43539},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1543.567614},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1548.331571},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1534.9875},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1535.318703},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1536.227418},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1541.395603},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1520.757962},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1507.76121},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1515.07174},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1538.773453},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1544.97506},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1543.096287},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1531.92685},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1529.861784},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1537.158739},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1540.341314},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1540.252808},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1533.615769},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1537.68409},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1544.937518}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":122,"firstPeriod":"2016-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":122,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1507.76121,"endRent":1544.937518,"change":0.02465662848562089,"cagr":0.02465662848562089},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1500.581321,"endRent":1544.937518,"change":0.029559342355695017,"cagr":0.009757593806106524},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1182.36935,"endRent":1544.937518,"change":0.3066454386693973,"cagr":0.05494921024067656}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03990723588207323,"annualizedVolatility":0.033834652525220006,"consecutiveReturnCount":121}}