At $1,654 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level Observed Rent Index for 33615 is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-specific quote. The index is 1.7% below its year-earlier level, making the current reading a softer recent asking-rent signal. For wider, non-interchangeable context, Tampa city asking-rent context is $1,999, Hillsborough County asking-rent context is $2,025, and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro asking-rent context is $2,020. Those city, county, and metro figures describe their respective broader geographies rather than ZIP comparables, but they place this ZIP’s current index below each context value.
The longer Zillow history complicates the current snapshot. Exact same-month annualized rent change was -1.7% over one-year, -1.0% over three-year, and +3.5% over five-year intervals. Thus, the recent and medium-term direction breaks from the positive five-year path rather than confirming it. The backward-looking history has 138 monthly observations with 100% coverage. Monthly movement produces 3.6% annualized variability, so one current ZORI reading warrants less confidence as a stable level than a low-variability series would support. Separately, the largest historical peak-to-trough decline was 4.9%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,759 for momentum, 2,310 for stability, and 2,811 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. These measurements describe prior rent behavior, not a forecast or investment conclusion.
A local HUD bedroom ladder can translate the all-types ZORI into modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents: $1,336 for a studio, $1,416 for one bedroom, $1,654 for two bedrooms, $2,116 for three bedrooms, and $2,571 for four bedrooms. The ladder preserves the ZIP index as its anchor and scales it by the local HUD pattern. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,290, putting the modelled two-bedroom estimate at 72.2% of that benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so the comparison identifies benchmark distance but does not establish market rents for any particular unit size.
The matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,656 with a $52 margin of error. The 33615 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS median gross rent covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s asking-rent index, so their near match does not make them interchangeable. ACS median household income is $69,274 with a $4,135 margin of error. Applying the 30% screen to annualized ZORI gives required income of $66,160 and an asking-rent-to-income arithmetic ratio of 28.7%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Meanwhile, 3,758 of 7,787 renter households, or 48.3%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent, showing that aggregate burden remains material despite the ZIP-level screen.
Housing-stock evidence gives the burden and rent readings needed structure. The matched ACS ZCTA contains 20,110 housing units, of which 1,775 are vacant, an 8.8% vacancy rate. Renter households represent 42.5% of occupied homes. The stock includes 11,855 single-family units and 1,521 units in larger multifamily structures, indicating that neither a single property form nor a single bedroom configuration can stand in for the whole ZIP index. Vacancies include units categorized for rent and units categorized for seasonal use. Those aggregate classifications do not prove that a particular home is available, rentable at the index, or suitable for a given household.
Redfin supplies a separate, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price is $404,908, up 1.2% year over year, with 137 homes sold. Marketing time is 43 days on market. Redfin reports 215 homes of inventory and 4.8 months of supply, while the average sale-to-list ratio is 97.5% and 21.8% of sales closed above list. Together, those for-sale measures show actual resale activity, time to market, available supply, and pricing-to-list signals within the ZIP. They cannot be used as rental comps, as evidence about lease execution, or as property operating economics.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 4.9% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or valuation conclusion. The key tension is that the one-year asking-rent history is negative while the direct resale median price is positive year over year. At the same time, the below-list average sale-to-list result and 4.8 months of supply qualify any simple interpretation of resale strength. This resale evidence therefore challenges a single-direction reading from rent, affordability arithmetic, or sold-price change alone; the sources track different markets and their signals do not resolve into one outcome.
Several limits remain decisive. ZORI is an all-types asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation; timing, populations, and definitions differ. The reported ACS margins of error and the history’s elevated variability further limit precision around a single rent snapshot. A property-level review would require the actual advertised rent and lease term, bedroom and utility treatment, current availability category, physical condition, and the specific listing and closed-sale record. None of the aggregate measures establishes what a particular unit will rent for, sell for, or cost to hold.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is below its year-earlier reading, and the three-year history is also negative. That breaks from the positive five-year annualized path. Full historical coverage supports the measurement record, but elevated variability and a meaningful historical drawdown reduce confidence that one monthly index level represents a fixed local rent condition.","title":"Recent rent direction has weakened"},{"body":"The ZIP-level 30% income screen places annualized ZORI slightly below the reported median household income threshold. However, nearly half of ACS renter households report rent burden at or above 30% of income. The arithmetic screen and burden measure describe different populations and methods, so neither replaces the other.","title":"Affordability screens and renter burden diverge"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale evidence shows a year-over-year increase in median sold price and a meaningful count of homes sold. Yet the average sale closes below list, only a minority sell above list, and months of supply is not a zero-friction market signal. These are for-sale observations, not rental evidence.","title":"Resale data provide a mixed for-sale signal"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates produced by scaling the all-types ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for a consistent size ladder, but they are not observed bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard and should not be treated as a current asking-rent survey.","title":"Bedroom figures are benchmark-scaled estimates"}],"risks":["Recent Zillow rent declines occur within a high-variability historical category, so a current index level may move meaningfully even when the long-run record remains complete and internally consistent.","ACS gross rent, ZORI asking rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR describe different universes, dates, utility treatments, and household populations; apparent agreement between their dollar values does not validate a particular property rent.","Redfin resale measures are direct ZIP for-sale observations rather than rental transactions. Median sold price, inventory, and sale-to-list patterns cannot determine lease demand, lease pricing, or operating results.","Vacancy, renter burden, and housing-stock figures are aggregate ZCTA measurements with survey uncertainty. They cannot prove availability, affordability, condition, or tenant outcomes for an individual dwelling."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their similar dollar readings are informative context, but the source populations, timing, and rent definitions differ materially.","q":"Why do the Zillow and ACS rent figures look similar but mean different things?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by 30% to produce an arithmetic income threshold. It is not lending guidance, lease approval guidance, household advice, or an applicant qualification rule. The separate ACS burden statistic instead reports how surveyed renter households described their actual rent-to-income burden.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure show?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the all-types Zillow index. They offer a consistent scale from studio through four bedrooms, but they are not measured advertised rents, executed leases, or evidence that a specific available unit carries that price.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"The ratio is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, combining two different source universes for a narrow screening comparison. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, valuation, or substitute for property-specific income, expense, and transaction records.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + 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