ZIP 33624 opens with a cooling asking-rent signal rather than a broad claim about every available unit. At the stated Zillow endpoint, the Zillow Observed Rent Index is $1,761 per month, down 2.4% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a lease-level quote or a measure of every bedroom category. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters when comparing the index with survey and administrative sources.
The longer rent path puts the current decline in perspective. Exact same-month ZORI change was -2.3% over one year, while the three-year change was 0.6% annualized and the five-year change was 5.7% annualized. Thus, recent direction breaks from the longer expansion rather than confirming it. The history has complete coverage across 138 observations, supporting continuity of the backward-looking series. Its annualized monthly-return variability of 3.0% suggests that a single current reading warrants moderate caution, while the 3.1% maximum drawdown shows the observed retreat has been limited in this history. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place stability at 1,698, ahead of momentum at 2,643 and balanced history at 2,622; lower ranks are stronger. These are retrospective measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Current-price comparisons require source discipline. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,782 with a $56 margin of error. That occupied-renter-home measure includes selected utilities and sits 1.2% above the ZORI reading, a close numerical comparison that does not make the two series interchangeable. HUD provides a different benchmark: its two-bedroom Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent standard is $2,210, and the current ZORI equals 79.7% of that administrative amount. HUD is bedroom-specific program administration, not an asking-rent observation, so the difference should not be read as a discount on a particular listing.
The bedroom ladder is useful only as a modelled translation of the ZIP-wide ZORI. Scaling the index by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,418 for a studio, $1,514 for one bedroom, $1,761 for two bedrooms, $2,255 for three bedrooms, and $2,741 for four bedrooms. These figures are not measured bedroom rents, rental comps, or proof of available supply. They preserve the HUD ladder’s local bedroom relationships while using the Zillow index as the ZIP-wide anchor. A unit’s actual configuration, condition, included utilities, and advertised terms could differ materially from this mechanical estimate.
The affordability screen creates a separate tension. Applying the arithmetic 30% income screen to the current index produces required annual income of $70,440, compared with ACS median household income of $87,760; the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 24.1%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The same ACS universe reports 3,189 of 5,166 renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent, or 61.7%, indicating that area-level household burden is substantial despite the index-to-income screen. Housing stock totaled 15,960 units, with 347 vacant units, a 2.2% vacancy rate, and renters accounting for 33.1% of occupied homes. Those totals describe the ZCTA survey universe and cannot prove vacancy, rent, or burden for any particular unit.
Wider benchmarks make the ZIP’s current index look lower, but they remain context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence: the Tampa city context rent is $1,999, the Hillsborough County context rent is $2,025, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro context rent is $2,020. Each comparison uses a broader geographic scope than ZIP 33624. The gap is consistent with the ZIP index being below those context measures, yet it does not identify why that difference exists or whether it applies to any property type. The closer ACS gross-rent reading inside the matched ZCTA is therefore the more relevant survey cross-check, subject to its survey design and margin of error.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation supplies a distinct, for-sale-market tension. Redfin reports a $429,903 median sold price, down 4.3% year over year, alongside 137 homes sold and a median 17 days on market. There were 253 active listings, inventory of 105 homes, and 2.3 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence was not uniformly aggressive: the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.5%, while 18.8% of sales closed above list. Falling sold prices align with cooling rent direction, but the marketing time and supply readings mean the resale evidence does not show a uniformly slack market. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.9%; this is only a cross-source screening ratio, without property-specific operating, financing, or transaction information.
Both the rental and resale readings have practical limits. ZORI blends asking-rent observations and does not establish signed lease terms; ACS summarizes surveyed occupied renter homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin describes resale transactions rather than rental transactions. Before applying these ZIP-level signals to a property, verify the live advertised rent, bedroom count, home type, lease length, concessions, deposits, and which utilities are included. For any sale comparison, check property characteristics, transaction timing, list-price changes, and whether reported inventory reflects comparable homes. The central question is whether those property-level facts support the observed ZIP cooling signal without treating survey burden, vacancy, or a resale screen as unit-specific evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is declining year over year, while the longer same-month history remains positive over three and five years. That makes the latest movement a break from the longer path, not proof that the full history has reversed. Complete observation coverage improves confidence in the measured path, but observed variability still limits confidence in any single rent snapshot.","title":"Cooling rent signal with a longer positive backdrop"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent are numerically close, yet they answer different questions. ZORI reflects typical observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD’s bedroom-specific standard is a separate administrative benchmark. None of these sources should be substituted for an individual unit’s advertised terms or signed lease rent.","title":"Similar current rent levels come from different universes"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on current ZORI is below the area median household income, but ACS reports that a substantial share of renter households spend at least the stated burden threshold on rent. This contrast shows why a ZIP-wide rent-to-income calculation cannot describe household-level affordability. Vacancy and renter-share figures provide housing context, not evidence about a specific listing’s availability.","title":"Burden remains material despite the index-income screen"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a lower median sold price from a year earlier, which is directionally consistent with rent cooling. At the same time, marketing time, supply, sales volume, and sale-to-list signals describe an active but not uniformly aggressive for-sale market. These are resale facts only and should not be treated as rental transactions, property economics, or leasing comparables.","title":"Resale prices softened without a uniformly weak liquidity picture"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so shifts in its level can reflect the observed mix of rental listings as well as changes in asking prices; it does not establish a lease renewal or signed rent.","ACS gross-rent, income, burden, vacancy, and occupancy values come from a matched ZCTA survey universe with sampling uncertainty, and the ZCTA boundary is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","A low area vacancy rate and elevated renter burden do not prove that a particular home is unavailable, competitively priced, occupied, or unaffordable to a specific household with different income and utility terms.","The annualized rent-to-sale-price screen excludes operating expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, property condition, transaction costs, and unit comparability; it cannot support a property-level return conclusion."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Similar levels can be a useful cross-check, but different timing, populations, utility treatment, and measurement methods prevent either figure from being a substitute for the other.","q":"Why are Zillow rent and ACS gross rent close but not interchangeable?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not observed bedroom-specific asking rents, completed leases, or comparable-property evidence. A real unit may differ because of structure type, bedroom count, condition, lease terms, included utilities, and concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts measured rents for available apartments or houses?"},{"a":"The backward-looking same-month history shows a recent year-over-year decline after positive annualized movement across longer horizons. That pattern indicates recent cooling relative to the longer path, rather than establishing a future direction. Complete historical coverage supports the continuity of the measurement, while monthly variability and drawdown show why one current index reading should not be overinterpreted.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current decline?"},{"a":"Use the Redfin block only to understand the direct ZIP for-sale and resale observation: sold prices, transaction volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not rental-comp evidence. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen, and property-level review still requires comparable home characteristics, current listing terms, and transaction details.","q":"How should the resale evidence be used with the rent evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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