ZIP 33634 shows a near-term rent retreat against a much stronger longer record. Zillow ZORI was $1,774 in June 2026, down 1.88% year over year. This is Zillow's typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, rather than a quote for one available home. The exact same-month history also shows a 1.88% annualized decline over one year, a 0.04% annualized gain over three years, and 6.79% annualized growth over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from the longer expansion path rather than confirming it. Those are backward-looking measurements only: they describe where asking-rent index readings have been, not a forecast of rents or an investment conclusion.
The rent history is complete for its available window, with 66 observations, 65 consecutive monthly returns, and 100% coverage. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 7.06%, meaning individual monthly movements have been material enough that a single current ZORI reading deserves moderate rather than absolute confidence. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 8.49%, showing that the historical path included a meaningful decline from a prior peak. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,674 for momentum, 2,897 for stability, and 2,877 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher within their history-eligible ZIP comparison. These ranks are descriptive discovery tools, not ratings, forecasts, or recommendations.
Wider asking-rent context puts the ZIP below each named geography: the City of Tampa context was $1,999, Hillsborough County context was $2,025, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro context was $2,020. Those city, county, and metro values are wider-area context, not substitutes for ZIP evidence or proof that any individual rental should be priced at a particular level. The gap is useful mainly as a cross-geography reference alongside the ZIP's recent decline. It does not resolve differences in property type, lease terms, utilities, bedroom count, or the mix of listings underlying each market-level index.
The source definitions explain why rent figures should not be interchanged. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,866, with a reported $104 margin of error; it is a survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even though this ZIP label is both a Zillow market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $2,290, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,433 for a studio, $1,518 for one bedroom, $1,774 for two bedrooms, $2,270 for three bedrooms, and $2,758 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The income screen is close to the ZCTA median but should be read cautiously. Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to the monthly ZIP ZORI produces required annual household income of $70,960, versus ACS median household income of $74,291. Equivalently, current ZORI represents 28.7% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; actual affordability depends on household income, non-rent obligations, utility treatment, and the particular lease. ACS reports that 2,045 of 3,117 renter households, or 65.6%, paid at least 30% of income toward rent. That burden statistic describes surveyed occupied renter households, so it cannot establish affordability or burden for a specific available unit.
The ACS ZCTA housing snapshot contains 8,272 housing units, a 5.7% vacancy rate, and a renter share of 40.0%. Owner occupancy remains the larger tenure segment, while single-family homes outnumber large multifamily structures in the reported stock. Vacant units include homes classified for rent, for sale, seasonal use, and other statuses; vacancy is therefore a stock classification, not a count of immediately comparable rental choices. Nor does the aggregate rate demonstrate that a particular property is empty, leasable, well maintained, or subject to the same utility and lease structure as the ZORI index.
Resale evidence supplies a separate and somewhat challenging signal. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, median sold price was $419,905, down 1.2% year over year; 55 homes sold with a median 29 days on market. Inventory was 69 homes, up 18.6%, and months of supply stood at 3.8. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.65%, while 24.6% of sales closed above list and 43.0% went off market within two weeks. These are resale-market liquidity and pricing indicators, not rental transactions or rental comps. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 5.07% only as a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The falling resale median and rising inventory challenge any simple favorable reading of rent relative to income, even as near-list sale pricing indicates transactions were still occurring close to list.
Decision use depends on keeping the timeframes and universes separate: Zillow observes asking-rent index movement, ACS surveys occupied renter homes, HUD sets administrative bedroom standards, and Redfin records resale activity. None is a synchronized property-level record. Concrete checks should identify the home's true bedroom count, utility responsibility, stated asking rent, concessions, lease duration, condition, and whether its street address falls within the intended market geography. A reader should also compare the specific home's active rental offering with contemporaneous comparable offers and verify its sale or listing record separately from rent evidence. The central question is whether the particular property's current lease terms support an interpretation consistent with the ZIP-level indicators, rather than whether any one aggregate number can answer that alone.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's ZIP asking-rent index declined over the latest same-month year, while the five-year annualized history remained materially positive. The three-year result was essentially flat, making the current pullback more consistent with a break from the earlier growth path than a continuation of it. Historical variability and drawdown further limit confidence in interpreting one monthly index value as a settled trend.","title":"Recent rent direction diverges from the long record"},{"body":"The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, and the resulting ladder is not a survey of current bedroom-specific listings or executed leases. Bedroom count, utility inclusion, property condition, and lease terms must be checked for any individual home before using the estimates.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not observed rents"},{"body":"The 30% screen places required income slightly below the ACS ZCTA median household income, but that comparison is only a broad arithmetic benchmark. ACS also reports that a substantial share of occupied renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. The two measures are compatible because they cover different household circumstances and neither determines affordability for a particular applicant or unit.","title":"Affordability arithmetic is near the area median, while burden is widespread"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale observation shows a lower median sold price year over year alongside increased inventory, while sale-to-list results remain close to parity. That combination is for-sale evidence, not rental evidence, but it challenges an overly simple interpretation of the rent-to-income screen. The annualized-rent-to-price figure is useful only for cross-source screening and excludes property-level costs.","title":"Resale conditions temper the rent screen"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match a specific home's bedroom count, utility package, condition, concessions, furnishing, lease duration, or current availability.","ACS gross rent and rent burden describe surveyed occupied renter households in a statistical ZCTA over a five-year period, not current asking rents, current vacancies, or the circumstances of an individual applicant.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than observed asking rent. The derived bedroom ladder is modelled and should not be treated as a set of measured ZIP rental comparables.","Redfin resale data reflects for-sale transactions and listings in a rolling three-month ZIP observation. Median price, supply, and sale-to-list signals cannot establish rental income, expenses, financing, or property-level economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures have different universes and construction. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical geography, so it also is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why does the current Zillow rent differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not a listing survey. A specific property's bedroom count, utilities, condition, lease structure, and any concession can produce a materially different current asking rent.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual observed rents for each bedroom type?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply divides annualized ZIP asking rent by 30% to create a broad required-income screen. It is not lending, leasing, or applicant-qualification guidance. Household size, verified income, debts, utility obligations, deposits, credit criteria, and the actual lease price are outside the arithmetic and require property-level review.","q":"Does the 30% income calculation determine whether a household qualifies?"},{"a":"Use the Redfin block only as direct ZIP for-sale context. It identifies resale price, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior, but it does not measure rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio and excludes expenses, financing, vacancies, and property-specific rental performance.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rent evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1157.565916},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1181.273322},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1179.8231},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1202.314766},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1235.327152},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1277.205359},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1298.523307},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1366.766225},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1428.668524},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1455.789119},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1515.133563},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1543.570783},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1668.840837},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1677.650556},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1717.202881},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1704.232163},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1706.462254},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1735.153071},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1757.365268},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1778.923485},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1777.195268},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1771.367261},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1717.644855},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1674.817826},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1627.940601},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1670.603215},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1729.660773},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1784.507335},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1795.352303},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1771.688886},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1793.399161},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1791.583871},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1791.06414},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1801.971588},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1837.551503},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1896.216581},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1877.729471},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1837.900338},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1767.462677},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1754.149726},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1779.942933},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1803.541169},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1816.351016},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1782.389252},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1763.968633},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1747.274599},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1760.399663},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1775.409613},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1796.192548},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1804.461544},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1815.521782},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1805.252534},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1816.472782},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1807.78204},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1791.429026},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1818.075563},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1836.740696},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1849.690881},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1834.189928},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1804.675998},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1802.800996},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1803.557911},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1811.095626},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1810.249733},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1781.742955},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1773.858974}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1807.78204,"endRent":1773.858974,"change":-0.018765019924636528,"cagr":-0.018765019924636528},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1771.688886,"endRent":1773.858974,"change":0.001224869680646723,"cagr":0.0004081233062560585},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1277.205359,"endRent":1773.858974,"change":0.38885963913341204,"cagr":0.06790266782033072}},"maxDrawdown":-0.08487317485720869,"annualizedVolatility":0.07064969195772303,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}