The principal signal in ZIP 33647 is a short-run cooling that breaks from a still-positive distant record. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, stood at $1,862. Exact same-month history showed a 2.08% fall over one year and a 0.63% annualized decline over three years, versus 3.51% annualized growth over five years. The history is complete: 138 monthly observations, 137 consecutive monthly returns, and 100% coverage through the endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.61% and maximum drawdown was -2.88%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,761 for momentum, 898 for stability, and 2,360 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the recent decline breaks rather than confirms the five-year path.
That current Zillow figure should not be treated as the same universe as the matched Census ZCTA result. The ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,904, with a $53 90% margin of error, for occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities. ZORI instead is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a survey median with selected utilities. The index is modestly below the ACS median, but that gap is descriptive, not a reconciliation of rents. The 33647 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so either dataset can differ from an address-based search result.
Bedroom detail requires a separate construction, not a claim that Zillow observed separate local rents. Applying the FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder to the ZIP index produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,499 for a studio, $1,595 for one bedroom, an index-aligned two-bedroom point, $2,381 for three bedrooms, and $2,901 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Its local two-bedroom standard is $2,510, placing the all-type ZIP index 25.8% below it; that difference does not convert the standard into a market quote.
The income arithmetic points in a different direction from the burden count, which is why neither should stand alone. Using the current index, the 30% screen yields required annual income of $74,480; it is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is $109,285, and annualized ZORI equals 20.4% of that median. Yet ACS estimates that 5,573 of 10,411 renter households paid 30% or more of income toward gross rent, a 53.5% burden share. This burden measure concerns occupied renter households and selected-utility gross rent, not an assertion about affordability, payment history, or eligibility for any particular listed unit.
Housing composition supplies context but not an availability count for a particular listing. The ZCTA has 28,268 housing units, including 1,147 vacant units, a 4.1% vacancy rate; 594 are classified as vacant for rent. Renter occupancy represents 38.4% of occupied housing. The structure inventory includes 18,251 single-family units and 2,886 large multifamily units, showing that the stock is not limited to one building form. Vacancy categories and structure totals do not say which properties are offered now, at what rent, or with what lease terms. They therefore cannot prove supply, price flexibility, or suitability for an individual home.
Wider geography places the ZIP below several wider-area rent context measures, but those measures retain their own scope. For City of Tampa context, the rent measure is about $1,999; for Hillsborough County context, the rent measure is $2,025; and for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro context, the rent measure is $2,020. Each is a wider-area context value rather than a ZIP substitute, and none establishes a neighborhood, building, or address-level rent. The comparison is useful for locating the current ZIP index within named geographies, while the ZCTA survey and HUD standard remain separate evidence universes.
The appropriate property-level checks are the listing’s posted asking rent and date, exact bedroom count, stated utility responsibility and mandatory fees, advertised availability, and proposed lease terms. Compare those details separately with the ZIP’s blended ZORI, the ZCTA’s occupied-home gross-rent survey, and the HUD administrative ladder; none is a substitute for the listing record. The measured variability gives somewhat more confidence in a single current index snapshot than a highly erratic series would, but it cannot overcome source differences or establish an individual unit’s price. Likewise, the vacant-for-rent count and burden share do not prove that a particular home is available or affordable. Does the current listing’s all-in terms and timing actually match the question being evaluated?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI was $1,862. It declined 2.08% over one year and 0.63% annualized over three years, while five-year annualized growth remained 3.51%. The conflict between recent declines and the positive long window is the key directional tension. Complete history coverage and 2.61% annualized variability describe the series’ continuity, not a forecast of its next move.","title":"Recent cooling conflicts with the longer record"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent of $1,904 is a five-year estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Its $53 margin of error also signals survey uncertainty. It should not be collapsed into the $1,862 Zillow figure, which is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Numerical proximity does not establish equivalence.","title":"The Zillow and ACS rent measures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Using the FY2026 HUD ladder to scale ZIP ZORI creates modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. The resulting studio-through-four-bedroom range runs from $1,499 to $2,901, with the index aligned at the two-bedroom point. HUD’s $2,510 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, so its difference from ZORI is not proof of a market discount.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from the HUD ladder"},{"body":"Of 10,411 renter households, ACS estimates 5,573 with gross-rent burden at or above 30% of income. Meanwhile, 38.4% renter occupancy and a 4.1% vacancy rate describe the ZCTA housing base. These aggregate statistics cannot establish rent, availability, payment capacity, or qualification for a particular property.","title":"Aggregate burden and vacancy do not describe a listing"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI represents a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it does not establish the advertised price, concession, utility responsibility, condition, or availability of any specific residence.","ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey rather than a ZIP-address listing database. Its gross-rent measure covers occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and carries reported sampling uncertainty, limiting direct comparison with asking rents.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The bedroom figures here are modelled by scaling the ZIP index with its local HUD ladder, so no value demonstrates an observed bedroom-specific asking rent.","Vacancy, housing-stock, and rent-burden totals are aggregate classifications. They do not prove that any individual unit is vacant, offered for rent, affordable to a household, or available on stated terms."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI at $1,862 is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the ZIP market level. ACS reports a $1,904 median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. The difference is descriptive; the measures do not share a unit universe, timing, or construction.","q":"Why are ZORI and ACS median gross rent close but not interchangeable?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. They are explicitly not measured bedroom rents. HUD’s standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, whereas ZORI is an all-type blended asking-rent index.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed market rents?"},{"a":"No. The $74,480 figure simply annualizes the current index and divides by 30%; it is an arithmetic screen, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a property underwriting decision. Actual interpretation requires the listing’s rent, utilities, mandatory fees, bedroom configuration, availability date, and lease terms. Aggregate ACS burden data cannot supply those property facts.","q":"Does the 30% required-income figure decide whether a household qualifies?"},{"a":"The one-year decline of 2.08% and three-year annualized decline of 0.63% break from the five-year annualized gain of 3.51%, so near-term direction is weaker than the longer record. With 100% coverage, 2.61% annualized variability, and a -2.88% maximum drawdown, the series is relatively stable, but these backward-looking measures do not forecast rent or value a specific unit.","q":"How should the cooling history affect confidence in today’s index?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and 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