At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index for 33755 was $2,189 per month, down 2.2% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level measure or a rent quote for one unit. Annualizing that index produces a $87,560 required household-income screen at 30% of income, compared with the matched ACS median household income of $62,886. The resulting asking-rent-to-income relationship is 41.8%. That required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule.
The latest decline breaks from the ZIP’s longer backward-looking rent path. Exact same-month changes were -2.2% over one year, +1.9% over three years, and +7.0% over five years. The history has 100% available monthly coverage through its stated endpoint. Monthly rent movements were variable enough to produce 3.8% annualized monthly-return variability, so one current ZORI reading deserves less confidence than a highly stable series would support. A separate peak-to-trough maximum drawdown of 2.6% shows the observed decline depth was limited. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,420 for momentum, 2,490 for stability, and 2,744 for the balanced measure; these are descriptive ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
This five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider asking-rent context, Clearwater city’s rent measure was $1,962, Pinellas County’s was $2,021, and the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro measure was $2,020. Those are city, county, and metro comparisons, respectively, not substitutes for the ZIP index. The matched ACS five-year survey reported median gross rent of $1,462 for occupied renter homes, making the current asking-rent index 49.7% higher. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities, while HUD’s local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $1,720; HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
The bedroom figures translate the ZIP-wide ZORI anchor through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled monthly estimates: $1,769 for a studio, $1,884 for a one-bedroom, $2,189 for a two-bedroom, $2,800 for a three-bedroom, and $3,411 for a four-bedroom. The ladder preserves local HUD bedroom relationships while scaling them to the ZIP asking-rent index. These are never measured bedroom rents, lease comparables, or evidence of a particular unit’s market rent. Because the anchor blends rental types, the estimates are best read as a consistent sizing framework rather than as a substitute for live listings with known bedrooms, utilities, condition, and availability.
The matched ACS ZCTA describes a housing base of 11,901 units, including 1,651 vacant units, for a 13.9% vacancy rate. Its stock included 7,777 single-family units and 1,544 units in larger multifamily structures. Renters occupied 45.2% of occupied homes, which makes renter conditions material to the area-wide household picture, but the survey does not identify current available units. Among renter households, 55.4% reported gross-rent burdens at or above the stated threshold. That burden measure concerns occupied renter homes and selected utilities; it does not prove affordability, vacancy, or burden for any particular property. ACS estimates are survey measurements over five years, not a current asking-rent inventory.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs entirely to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $357,919, down 3.8% year over year, with 89 homes sold and a median marketing time of 36 days. The observation reported 141 homes of inventory and 4.8 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 97.0%, while 11.5% of sales closed above list; these are resale negotiating and transaction signals, not rent evidence. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price was 7.34%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or property-specific economic result.
The central tension is that the recent asking-rent decline and lower median sold price move in the same direction, while the longer rent history remains positive over multi-year windows and the current income screen remains elevated relative to the matched household-income measure. Resale supply and sale-to-list information add a transaction-market lens, but they cannot validate a rent quote or reconcile the difference between asking rent and ACS gross rent. Likewise, the burden result signals pressure within occupied renter households without establishing the payment experience at one address. The history’s high-variability designation further limits the confidence appropriate for treating one current rent snapshot as a settled market conclusion.
The evidence has clear boundaries. ZORI is a ZIP-level blended asking-rent index; ACS is a matched ZCTA survey; HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard; and Redfin is a direct ZIP resale observation. A property-level review would need the actual bedroom count, lease asking rent, included utilities, concessions, fees, availability date, building type, square footage, condition, and listing history before comparing an individual unit with the modelled ladder. Resale records should also be checked separately from rental evidence. The unresolved property-level question is whether the specific unit’s live lease terms resemble the broad index and model assumptions represented here.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP ZORI was $2,189 in June 2026, while the matched ACS median household income was $62,886. Annualizing ZORI produces an $87,560 household-income screen at 30% of income. This comparison is arithmetic only: it does not establish applicant eligibility, a household’s actual income, or the rent and utility terms of a particular available unit.","title":"Current asking rent creates an income-screen tension"},{"body":"The one-year same-month ZORI change was negative, whereas the three-year and five-year annualized changes were positive. That combination means the latest direction does not simply continue the longer observed path. High monthly variability reduces confidence in reading a single current index value as a stable endpoint, although the historical maximum drawdown was comparatively limited.","title":"Recent direction differs from the longer rent record"},{"body":"ZORI measures typical observed asking rents across rental types, ACS median gross rent measures occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The gap between those measures should not be treated as an error or as proof that any listed unit is overpriced, underpriced, or affordable.","title":"Rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation showed a lower median sold price year over year, active resale liquidity through completed sales, and average transactions closing below list price. Those signals provide a useful for-sale counterpart to the rent history, but they are not rental comparables. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure remains only a cross-source screening ratio.","title":"Resale data offers a separate market check"}],"risks":["The Zillow figure is a blended ZIP asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match a specific building, bedroom count, lease term, condition level, or concession package available at the time of review.","ACS data describe a matched Census ZCTA statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, use a five-year survey period, and measure occupied renter homes rather than current listings or vacant units.","The rent-burden and vacancy measures are area-level survey estimates. They cannot demonstrate that a particular vacant property is affordable, that a specific renter is burdened, or that an individual unit will lease quickly.","Redfin resale observations measure completed for-sale activity over a rolling period. Median price, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes should not be converted into rental transaction evidence or property-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Asking rents can therefore differ materially from the rents currently paid by surveyed households without either series being incorrect.","q":"Why is the current Zillow rent index much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides it by 30% to create an arithmetic benchmark. It is not legal, lending, leasing, or applicant-qualification guidance. Actual qualification may depend on a specific unit’s lease rent, utilities, fees, concessions, household income, and an owner or manager’s criteria.","q":"Does the 30% required-income screen mean a household must earn that amount to rent in this ZIP?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s figures are direct ZIP for-sale and resale observations, while ZORI measures asking rents. The concurrent resale-price decline and recent rent decline point in a similar observed direction, but they remain separate datasets with different transaction timing, participants, and measurement methods. They do not establish causation or predict future rents.","q":"Do the Redfin sale-price decline and below-list sale-to-list result prove that the rental market is weakening?"},{"a":"A usable comparison would require the actual bedroom count, quoted rent, included utilities, lease length, concessions, recurring fees, availability date, property type, size, condition, and listing history. Those checks matter because the bedroom figures are modelled estimates scaled from ZIP ZORI through the HUD ladder, not measured rents for individual properties.","q":"What property-level information would be needed before comparing a unit with the bedroom estimates?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small 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