June 2026 places Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 34207 at $1,496 per month, after a 6.4% same-month decline. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease quote for a specified property. The label is simultaneously Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA: a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That match makes the source set usable side by side, but it does not make their populations or concepts interchangeable. The immediate signal is a lower current asking-rent index, whose decision value depends on household cost context and on whether the recent movement fits the backward-looking record.
The bedroom view should not be treated as a set of observed lease medians. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,084 for a studio, $1,290 for one bedroom, $1,496 for two bedrooms, $1,935 for three bedrooms, and $2,311 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $1,670. The modelled two-bedroom figure matches the ZIP index because it is the scaling anchor, while the difference from HUD should not be read as a negotiated concession, utility adjustment, or quality adjustment. This construction is useful only as a size-consistent screen.
The ACS 2024 five-year estimate offers a different household lens: median gross rent was $1,359, including selected utilities, among occupied renter homes. That sits 10.1% below the current asking-rent index, a gap consistent with comparing an occupied-home survey measure against an asking-rent index rather than equivalent listings. Median household income was $45,010. Under the stipulated 30% required-income arithmetic, supporting the current annualized ZORI would require $59,840, making the index equal to 39.9% of that median income before any property-specific utility treatment. Separately, 3,126 renter households, or 53.1%, were recorded as paying at least the burden threshold. Neither the arithmetic nor the burden statistic is advice, an applicant qualification rule, or proof that a particular household can or cannot rent a particular unit.
Housing composition adds an important qualification to any vacancy reading. The matched ZCTA contained 19,527 housing units, of which 15,171 were occupied and 4,356 were vacant, producing a 22.3% vacancy rate across all housing units. Renters represented 38.8% of occupied homes. Yet only 426 vacant homes were classified as for rent, while 3,272 were classified as seasonal. Thus, the broad vacancy figure is not a count of currently substitutable rental choices. It may help frame the stock mix, but it cannot establish advertised availability, lease terms, bedroom count, rent concessions, or the condition of a specific property. The renter-burden evidence likewise describes surveyed households, not the payment experience in an individual building.
The history record breaks from its longer path rather than confirming it. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were down 6.4% over one year and down 1.8% over three years, after a 5.2% annualized gain over five years. Month-to-month changes annualize to 3.8% variability, meaning a single current index reading merits less confidence as a stable point estimate than a smoother series would. Independently, the worst peak-to-trough decline in the available series was 8.1%, showing that historical setbacks have been material even though the long window remains positive. Coverage is 100%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,883 for momentum, 2,461 for stability, and 2,870 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation supplies a separate, for-sale-market tension. Median sold price was $239,946, down 4.0% year over year; 94 homes sold, and median marketing time was 64 days. The same resale record reported 269 active listings, inventory of 148 homes, and 4.8 months of supply. Sale-to-list performance averaged 93.9%, only 8.8% of sales closed above list, and 23.0% went off market within two weeks. Those are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 7.5% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The falling sale-price and asking-rent directions align as a contemporaneous softening signal, while the resale record cannot validate any rental quote.
Wider geography provides scale but not a substitute for ZIP evidence: Bradenton city-scope rent context is $1,850, Manatee County rent context is $2,072, and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL metro rent context is $2,132. Each exceeds the ZIP asking-rent index, so 34207 screens as lower priced on this particular rent measure. That comparison must retain its scope labels: city, county, and metro figures are context rather than ZIP rental observations, and they should not be treated as nearby-unit comparables. The lower ZIP index also does not erase the local income screen or the surveyed burden share. Put together, the evidence presents a lower current asking-rent level than wider-area context, alongside declining recent rent history and a household-cost measure that remains comparatively tight.
The principal limits are conceptual and property-specific. Zillow ZORI does not identify the rent, concession, utility package, availability date, or lease structure for a particular home; ACS is a survey estimate of occupied renter homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin observes resale activity only. A property-level review should verify the advertised address and geography, actual bedroom configuration, monthly base rent, separately billed utilities, concessions, lease duration, deposits, fees, occupancy status, and whether comparable listings are genuinely available. It should also distinguish a sale listing from a rental listing and verify whether its marketing status matches the claimed condition. The useful final question is not whether one index settles the decision, but whether the actual unit’s all-in terms remain consistent with the relevant asking-rent, household-cost, and availability evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI indicates a declining typical asking-rent index. It is useful for tracking market-level asking-rent direction, but it blends rental types and does not establish the advertised rent, availability, utilities, condition, or lease terms for an individual property. The recent decline should be read alongside the more variable historical path.","title":"Current asking-rent signal is lower, but not a unit quote"},{"body":"The income screen compares annualized ZIP ZORI with the matched ZCTA’s median household income using arithmetic, while ACS burden data describe surveyed renter households. Both point to a meaningful gap between current asking-rent conditions and the area’s median-income benchmark. They do not determine qualification, household budgeting capacity, or affordability for a specific applicant.","title":"Affordability measures point to a household-cost tension"},{"body":"The broad ZCTA vacancy rate is elevated, but the packet separates vacant-for-rent homes from a substantially larger seasonal-vacancy category. That composition limits any inference that many comparable rentals are currently available. Vacancy data can describe housing stock status, not the price, quality, location, or lease availability of a particular vacant home.","title":"Vacancy does not equal ready-to-rent supply"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale record shows a lower median sold price year over year, longer marketing information, supply data, and sale-to-list outcomes that belong exclusively to the for-sale market. Its directional alignment with declining recent ZORI is notable, but resale observations do not provide rental transactions, operating expenses, or a property-level rental valuation.","title":"Resale softness aligns directionally with rent weakness"}],"risks":["Source concepts are materially different: Zillow tracks a blended asking-rent index, ACS surveys occupied renter homes with selected utilities, HUD publishes administrative bedroom standards, and Redfin measures for-sale transactions rather than rental activity.","The high all-unit vacancy rate should not be interpreted as immediate rental availability because seasonal vacancies account for much of the reported vacant stock, and listing status can differ from Census vacancy classification.","Recent rent declines occur within a historically variable series that has experienced a meaningful peak-to-trough setback. Historical movement can contextualize the current snapshot but cannot predict the next rent observation or lease outcome.","The rent-to-sale-price figure combines Zillow and Redfin sources with different universes. It omits financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, management, vacancy experience, transaction costs, and any property-specific operating information."],"qa":[{"a":"The current figure is Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes asking-rent conditions rather than the price, utility treatment, bedroom count, condition, lease length, or availability of any named home. It also differs conceptually from ACS occupied-home rent and HUD administrative standards.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease medians, or listing averages. Their purpose is to create a size-consistent screen while preserving the distinction between Zillow asking-rent data and HUD standards.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides it by the stated threshold to create a required-income screen. It is arithmetic, not financial advice, a household budget, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability depends on verified income, debts, utility obligations, fees, household composition, and the specific lease terms.","q":"Does the 30% income calculation decide whether someone can afford a rental?"},{"a":"Use the Redfin information as direct ZIP for-sale-market context only. Sold prices, marketing time, supply, inventory, and sale-to-list measures describe resale activity, not rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, so it cannot establish property economics, rental value, or an expected financial outcome.","q":"How should the resale data be used with the rental evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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