The central measured tension in 34231 is a current asking-rent screen that sits above both local survey rent and local household-income capacity, even as recent rent growth is subdued. Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $2,101 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is 15.4% above the ACS median gross rent comparator. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the index produces $84,040 in required annual income, compared with the matched area’s $69,925 median household income; the index is therefore 36.1% of that median income. This arithmetic screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule; it frames the mismatch a current snapshot can create.
Backward-looking Zillow history tempers any reading of that income tension as a straight trend. Exact same-month one-year change was 1.6%, three-year annualized change was 1.0%, and five-year annualized change was 5.3%. Thus the latest year confirms an upward direction relative to the three-year path, but it breaks from the far faster pace embedded in five-year growth. Coverage is 100%, based on 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized monthly-return variability reached 4.7%, so a lone current ZORI should carry less confidence than a smooth series would warrant. Separately, maximum drawdown was 4.5%, documenting a meaningful prior decline rather than an uninterrupted rise. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,820 for momentum, 2,773 for stability, and 2,588 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher; those are descriptive discovery placements, not forecasts.
Bedroom figures are not direct rent measurements. The local HUD ladder scales the ZIP ZORI into modelled monthly estimates of $1,517 for a studio, $1,804 for one bedroom, $2,101 for two bedrooms, $2,726 for three bedrooms, and $3,249 for four bedrooms. The corresponding HUD FMR/SAFMR standards are $1,480, $1,760, $2,050, $2,660, and $3,170. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not asking rent, while the modelled ladder merely preserves its local bedroom relationship around ZORI. A unit’s actual bedroom rent can depart from those estimates because they are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Stock evidence offers a second tension: the ACS matched area contains vacancy, but its composition does not establish availability in any particular unit. The ACS five-year ZCTA survey counted 19,153 housing units, with 15,546 occupied and 3,607 vacant, an 18.8% vacancy rate. Of vacant units, 2,388 were seasonal, versus 465 identified for rent and 70 for sale. Renter households represent 35.3% of occupied households; the rest are owner occupied. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Consequently, neither the broad vacancy share nor the ZCTA match should be read as proof of supply, price, or condition for a specified rental.
ACS supplies a different rent universe from ZORI. Its median gross rent is $1,821, with a reported margin of error of $79, from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and including selected utilities; it is not a current asking-rent series. Within the 5,492 renter households estimated by that survey, 3,273, or 59.6%, paid at least the specified burden threshold of household income toward rent. That burden statistic records surveyed household circumstances, not the affordability of a particular available unit. The earlier comparison of ZORI with income is similarly a cross-source arithmetic screen, while gross rent and burden are retrospective ACS measures with survey uncertainty.
Wider geography points in a somewhat different direction, but only as context. In citywide Sarasota context, rent is $2,218 and the renter share is 42.5%; in Sarasota County context, the figures are $2,185 and 23.3%; in the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL metro context, rent is $2,132 and rent-to-income is 31.6%. These city, county, and metro values are each wider-geography context, not substitutions for ZIP asking rent, ZCTA household data, or a unit comparison. The ZIP’s asking index falls below the city and county context rents yet its income screen is tighter than the metro context ratio, reinforcing that cross-universe comparisons answer different questions.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents the clearest counterweight. The median sold price was $424,904, up 5.6% year over year, across 188 homes sold; median days on market were 51. Inventory stood at 283 homes and months of supply at 4.6. Sellers received 95.6% of list price on average, while 6.0% of sales closed above list. This is a for-sale market observation, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 5.9% screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Rising sold prices alongside modest current rent growth challenges any simplistic inference that the rent history and resale market are moving at the same pace; the list-price signals and marketing time add further resale liquidity context.
Limits matter most where source scopes overlap imperfectly. ZORI is an index rather than a lease ledger for the subject unit; the ACS survey represents occupied homes; HUD is an administrative ladder; and Redfin tracks resale. All history measures are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations, and the resale screen cannot establish ownership costs or rental economics. Concrete property-level checks should identify the actual asking rent and bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, availability date, concessions, condition, and whether a listing is genuinely active. For a purchase comparison, the sold-date relevance, physical attributes, list-price history, and transaction costs remain unobserved here. Which of those unmeasured unit facts could most change the apparent gap between this ZIP-level rent screen and an actual housing decision?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index sits above the matched ACS gross-rent measure and produces a required-income screen above the area median household income. This identifies a cross-source affordability tension, but it does not measure a household’s lease terms, utilities, concessions, income composition, or eligibility for a particular rental.","title":"Current asking-rent screen exceeds local household benchmark"},{"body":"The one-year and three-year rent-history measures are modest compared with the five-year annualized measure. High variability and a documented drawdown mean the current ZORI is best treated as a useful point-in-time index with a less stable path than a steadily rising series would imply.","title":"Long-run growth was stronger than the recent pace"},{"body":"ACS reports a substantial vacant housing count, but seasonal vacancies make up most of that total. The limited evidence on units identified for rent cannot establish current inventory, availability timing, lease condition, or pricing for a specific property. ZCTA survey geography also differs from USPS delivery geography.","title":"Vacancy is materially seasonal in the matched survey area"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale evidence shows a higher median sold price, meaningful transaction volume, months of supply, and sale-to-list measures below full list price on average. That resale pattern does not translate into rental performance, but it challenges an assumption that current rent growth and resale pricing must move together.","title":"Resale prices strengthened while rent growth remained modest"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent indexing, ACS occupied-household survey measures, and HUD administrative standards cover different housing universes, so apparent gaps between them cannot by themselves identify a unit’s market rent or affordability.","The ZCTA vacancy figure includes a large seasonal component and is not equivalent to active rental listings; it therefore cannot prove that a particular unit is available, comparable, appropriately priced, or in similar condition.","High historical variability and a prior drawdown reduce confidence in extrapolating from a single current rent reading, especially when the recent one-year pace differs materially from the longer five-year path.","Redfin resale data measure sold homes rather than rentals, and the rent-to-price screening ratio omits property expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, lease terms, and unit-specific transaction characteristics."],"qa":[{"a":"They describe different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS figure is retrospective household experience, not a current asking-rent quote.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than asking rent. The resulting values help describe a standardized ladder but cannot substitute for measured rents on individual listings.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"No. The ACS vacancy estimate applies to the matched ZCTA survey area and includes seasonal, for-rent, and for-sale vacant homes. It does not identify listing status, condition, lease restrictions, current price, or move-in timing. A ZCTA is statistical geography, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Does the vacancy rate show that rental choices are readily available?"},{"a":"It establishes only an arithmetic cross-source screen: annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price. It is not a cap rate, property yield, expected return, or net return. Redfin’s observation concerns direct ZIP resale activity, while ZORI concerns asking-rent indexing rather than transaction-level rental economics.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-to-price screening ratio establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1071.208338},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1072.725645},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1072.554288},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1079.765887},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1073.974923},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1089.577926},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1096.776957},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1111.901132},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1113.146164},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1117.696888},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1089.725579},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1066.98778},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1070.896732},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1084.313886},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1116.460532},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1124.566529},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1147.003276},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1136.487722},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1134.495761},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1099.850978},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1111.883299},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1116.046462},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1134.146577},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1146.271926},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1156.78508},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1172.2421},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1179.578842},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1182.91849},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1177.893848},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1193.053147},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1174.72252},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1205.635033},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1180.109775},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1220.331607},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1211.163636},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1248.763585},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1247.399319},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1252.974141},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1233.95602},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1224.089648},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1230.910374},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1255.184756},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1284.219947},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1300.669416},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1318.467511},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1304.602208},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1314.505611},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1295.661655},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1291.532767},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1303.234394},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1321.230713},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1339.874025},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1346.74158},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1335.051801},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1335.693337},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1327.557552},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1338.0394},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1340.192741},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1348.039681},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1355.086326},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1370.436881},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1368.298383},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1369.7569},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1347.729057},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1341.634591},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1343.602276},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1355.83573},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1364.24767},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1367.866047},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1381.151552},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1414.511485},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1455.880249},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1448.603718},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1467.754191},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1503.720836},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1561.697728},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1590.668956},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1619.570082},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1650.753235},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1707.413968},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1760.485496},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1796.066215},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1792.738231},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1778.544825},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1822.363018},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1860.877741},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1904.765141},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1916.344583},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1990.283897},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2027.393548},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2057.140999},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2006.000301},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1978.543069},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1986.737342},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2030.044509},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2068.905137},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2102.085129},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2108.023064},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2116.894564},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2094.320787},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2049.565789},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2038.688705},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2051.058964},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2080.388106},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2103.393974},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2090.412701},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2103.579502},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2103.522453},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2086.79028},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2086.18802},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2061.374926},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2101.961508},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2116.656382},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2127.79603},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2092.199883},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2098.777065},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2096.745867},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2132.290232},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2104.53434},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2104.482659},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2097.069586},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2108.007907},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2109.410882},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2101.14849},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2081.387904},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2067.479246},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2083.834759},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2075.71515},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2072.828585},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2052.407094},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2060.963309},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2057.11169},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2065.812092},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2059.670392},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2071.659957},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2067.954059},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2087.927548},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2101.008009}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2067.479246,"endRent":2101.008009,"change":0.016217218656423782,"cagr":0.016217218656423782},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2038.688705,"endRent":2101.008009,"change":0.030568327497551895,"cagr":0.010087345809278725},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1619.570082,"endRent":2101.008009,"change":0.29726279359610963,"cagr":0.053429782350419286}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04536928441371846,"annualizedVolatility":0.04667047361446862,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}