This ZIP presents a split rent record rather than a clean trend. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI stood at $2,051, after a 0.5% exact same-month decline over the one-year period and a 1.6% annualized exact same-month decline over the three-year period, yet its five-year annualized exact same-month change remained a 5.1% gain. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer path. History coverage is 100% across 138 monthly observations. The series’ 4.4% annualized variability means one current rent snapshot deserves less confidence than a steadier series would command. Separately, the 8.5% maximum drawdown documents a meaningful earlier retreat. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national discovery ranks were 2,614 for momentum, 2,735 for stability, and 2,846 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
The $2,051 figure is Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-only median or a bedroom-specific quotation. It is 3.0% below the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent of $2,115. ACS instead surveys occupied renter homes over five years, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The five-digit label 34243 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD FMR/SAFMR, in turn, is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. These source universes answer different questions and should not be substituted for one another.
Bedroom figures resolve the indexing issue only through a model. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,487 for a studio, $1,769 for one bedroom, $2,051 for two bedrooms, $2,658 for three bedrooms, and $3,171 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents, lease comps, or proof that a currently available unit is priced at those amounts. The method preserves local HUD relative bedroom spacing while anchoring the result to the ZIP asking-rent index; it does not convert HUD’s administrative FMR/SAFMR standard into a market asking-rent observation. Actual unit size, condition, furnishings, and included utilities can materially differ from this ladder.
Household-income arithmetic is unusually close to the current asking-rent level. The ACS ZCTA median household income was $81,219, while the annual income required for the $2,051 monthly index to equal 30% of income is $82,040. The index therefore equals 30.3% of the area median household-income measure. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS occupied-renter survey universe, 4,038 renter households were counted, with 2,302, or 57.0%, reported as spending at least 30% of income on rent. That burden result identifies conditions across surveyed occupied renter homes; it does not establish the affordability of a particular available unit or household.
Housing stock data add an important caution to any broad supply reading. ACS counted 16,284 housing units, including 14,159 occupied units and 2,125 vacant units, for a 13.0% vacancy rate. Of the vacant stock, 1,311 units were seasonal and 454 were classified as for rent, so total vacancy is not a proxy for immediately rentable inventory. Renters represented 28.5% of occupied households, while 11,268 units were single-family structures. This is a stock-composition description, not evidence about condition, availability, lease pricing, or turnover at any individual property. Neither the vacancy measure nor the burden measure proves that a specific unit has excess supply or a financially stressed tenant base.
Broader benchmarks place the ZIP below several surrounding asking-rent measures, but those figures are context only. Sarasota city’s Zillow asking-rent index was $2,218, Manatee County’s Zillow asking-rent index was $2,072, and the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL metro Zillow asking-rent index was $2,132 with a 31.6% metro rent-to-income measure. City, county, and metro values describe their respective wider geographies, not ZIP-level rental transactions or substitutes for the 34243 reading. The ZIP’s lower current index can be compared directionally with those contexts, but it cannot explain why the geographies differ. Their survey populations, housing mixes, and source coverage need not align with the ZIP’s observed asking-rent index.
Redfin supplies a separate resale-market tension. Its direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, not rental transactions, showed a median sold price of $400,909, down 1.0% year over year, across 182 homes sold. Marketing and availability signals remained specific to that resale universe: median days on market were 61, active listings were 419, inventory was 200 homes, and months of supply were 3.3. The average sale-to-list result was 96.2%, while 6.2% of sales closed above list. The 6.1% annualized-ZORI-to-median-sold-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio calculated from annualized ZIP ZORI and the Redfin sold price; it is not a measure of property-level economics or expected performance. The resale price decline aligns directionally with the recent rent break, challenging the five-year rent gain as a stand-alone guide to current conditions.
Several limits remain decisive. ZORI is an asking-rent index rather than a record of every signed lease; ACS is a lagged five-year survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin describes completed for-sale activity rather than rental comparables. The rent history describes what has occurred, not what will occur, and the resale screen does not connect a particular building’s operating costs, taxes, insurance, repairs, financing, or vacancy experience to the ZIP figures. Concrete property-level checks should include dated live asking-rent comparisons, bedroom and bath configuration, square footage, condition, furnishing status, utility responsibility, lease length, concessions, availability, pet and parking terms, and closely matched completed sales where resale is relevant. The central question is which source most closely matches the specific decision and property under review.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI retained a positive five-year annualized change, but both the one-year and three-year same-month measures were negative. Full history coverage supports use of the series, yet elevated variability and a meaningful drawdown reduce confidence in treating the latest asking-rent reading as a stable equilibrium.","title":"Longer rent gains no longer match the recent direction"},{"body":"The arithmetic income amount associated with spending 30% of income on the current ZIP asking-rent index is slightly above the ACS ZCTA median household-income figure. Separately, a majority of surveyed occupied renter households reported rent burdens at or above 30%, though that survey result cannot identify the circumstances of a particular renter or unit.","title":"The income screen is close to the area median"},{"body":"The ZCTA’s total vacancy rate should not be interpreted as direct rental availability. Seasonal vacancies constitute a substantial portion of vacant housing, while the for-rent category is materially smaller. Housing stock is also predominantly single-family, a composition fact that does not reveal unit condition, rent level, or leasing velocity.","title":"Vacancy is concentrated outside the immediately rentable category"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation showed a modest annual sold-price decline alongside recorded sales, measured marketing time, active listings, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. That direction is consistent with recent rent softness, but completed home sales and the ZORI-to-price screening ratio cannot establish rental operations or property-specific financial performance.","title":"Resale evidence supports caution but is not rental evidence"}],"risks":["Recent negative one-year and three-year rent-history measures conflict with the positive five-year measure, so selecting only the longer horizon could overstate the stability or current direction of the ZIP asking-rent index.","ACS gross rent, ZORI, and HUD FMR/SAFMR use different populations, time frames, and definitions. Apparent gaps among them may reflect source construction rather than a directly observable pricing opportunity or discrepancy.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZIP ZORI and local HUD relative standards. Actual asking rents can differ materially because unit size, condition, furnishing, utilities, concessions, and lease terms are not represented.","Redfin resale metrics describe completed for-sale transactions over a rolling period. They do not measure rental demand, rental transaction prices, operating expenses, property-level vacancy, or the economics of a specific asset."],"qa":[{"a":"Because the exact same-month one-year and three-year measures are both negative while the five-year measure is positive. The evidence therefore shows a reversal from the longer historical path rather than consistent momentum. Annualized variability and the recorded maximum drawdown further indicate that a single current index observation should be interpreted cautiously.","q":"Why does the five-year rent gain not settle the current trend question?"},{"a":"They should be treated as related but non-interchangeable measures. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is a statistical geography, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"How should the ACS rent figure be compared with Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve relative bedroom spacing but do not measure signed leases, advertised unit-specific rents, property condition, included utilities, concessions, or availability for a particular residence.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed local lease rents?"},{"a":"It establishes only the arithmetic relationship between annualized ZIP ZORI and Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price. It can be used as a cross-source screening ratio, but it does not incorporate expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy, property condition, or rental transaction evidence and therefore cannot describe property-level financial performance.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year 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