ZIP 34471’s current rent snapshot carries a directional conflict: Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index is $1,517, yet the exact same-month one-year change is -1.8% and the three-year change is -0.5% annualized, against a five-year gain of 4.3% annualized. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer upward path. Annualized monthly-return variability of 4.0% warrants limited confidence in any single current snapshot because movements have not been uniformly smooth. Separately, a 7.4% maximum drawdown records the deepest prior decline from a running peak. History coverage is 98.4%; transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,715 for momentum, 2,607 for stability, and 2,850 for balanced performance, where a lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level, typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-contract series or a count of vacant units. Its current level sits 8.7% above the $1,396 ACS median gross rent in the matched Census ZCTA from the ACS 2024 five-year survey; that survey estimate has a $62 margin of error. ACS describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so the comparison joins different universes and timing rather than like-for-like prices. The five-digit 34471 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Bedroom detail should be read as a model, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,244 for a studio, $1,295 for one bedroom, $1,517 for two bedrooms, $1,958 for three bedrooms, and $2,105 for four bedrooms. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder beneath that scaling is $1,126, $1,172, $1,373, $1,772, and $1,905, respectively. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; the local ladder may be ZIP SAFMR or county-derived. These modelled estimates preserve HUD’s bedroom spacing while anchoring the level to Zillow’s cross-type ZIP index, so they do not replace listings or executed leases.
At the headline ZORI, the arithmetic 30% required-income screen is $60,680 annually, compared with matched-ZCTA median household income of $65,789. That puts the index at 27.7% of that aggregate income benchmark. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates 4,358 renter-occupied households, of which 2,651, or 60.8%, spend 30% or more of income on rent. Sampling uncertainty applies to both ACS household counts. Aggregate income clearing the screen alongside a majority burdened is a distributional tension, not evidence that a particular household can afford a particular unit or that any unit has a stated cost burden.
The matched-ZCTA ACS housing base totals 12,844 units: 11,356 occupied and 1,488 vacant, an 11.6% vacancy rate. Among vacancies, 645 are classified for rent; that category is not proof that any individual unit is available, comparable, or offered at ZORI. The structure mix includes 8,856 single-family units and 1,120 units in large multifamily buildings. For wider context only, the City of Ocala context asking-rent index is $1,582, Marion County context is $1,599, and the Ocala, FL metro context is $1,599. The city’s renter share is higher, the county’s vacancy rate is higher, and the metro rent-to-income reading is higher; each is a respective wider-geography comparison, not a substitute ZIP measurement.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation provides a different market signal: median sold price was $334,924, down 1.5% year over year. It recorded 106 homes sold, a median 50 days on market, 155 homes of inventory, and 4.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 96.5%. These are for-sale market measures—resale transactions, listing exposure, supply, and sale-to-list signals—not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price gives a 5.4% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield because it omits property-specific costs, operating performance, and transaction differences.
Taken together, resale and rent measures align on recent price softness: ZORI’s one-year and three-year declines sit beside a lower median sold price. Marketing time, supply, and below-list average sales add direct resale context, but do not establish causation between for-sale and rental markets. The affordability screen supplies a counterweight: an aggregate median income passes the arithmetic test, while the ACS burden measure shows many renter households above the threshold. Likewise, the screening ratio can make current asking rent appear substantial relative to sold price without revealing expenses, unit mix, condition, or turnover. The central tension is therefore not a single cheap-or-expensive verdict, but conflicting signals from a long-run rent rise, recent rent slippage, broad burden, and negotiated resale pricing.
No measure here identifies a property’s actual bedroom count, rent, included utilities, concession, condition, lease term, availability date, or sale history. Before applying the modelled ladder to a specific address, check the current advertised rent and date, confirm bedroom and bathroom configuration, identify utility treatment and concessions, and separate furnished or short-term offers from ordinary asking listings. For a resale-linked review, verify the individual sale record, list-price history, property type, condition, and whether the address belongs in the ZIP market definition. Reconcile the ZCTA survey scope with the delivery address rather than assuming they coincide. The unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s contemporaneous terms resemble the broad asking-rent index at all.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s current Zillow asking-rent index follows negative one-year and three-year same-month changes, while the five-year annualized history remains positive. That sequence indicates a break from the longer upward path rather than continued acceleration. Measured variability and the prior drawdown mean the current reading is informative but should not be treated as a stable, point-in-time conclusion.","title":"Recent rent movement conflicts with the longer record"},{"body":"The 30% income calculation places the ZIP asking-rent index below matched-ZCTA median household income on an aggregate basis. However, ACS reports that a majority of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. The difference does not invalidate either measure: one is a simple income screen, while the other describes reported burden among occupied renter households.","title":"Aggregate affordability and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. This gives a coherent relative structure for screening different unit sizes, but neither Zillow ZORI nor HUD FMR/SAFMR measures the asking rent of a specific apartment or house. Listing-level bedroom, utility, condition, and concession details remain necessary.","title":"Bedroom figures are a consistent ladder, not observed unit rents"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a year-over-year decline in median sold price, marketing time, supply, and an average sale below list price. Those observations concern for-sale transactions, not rentals. The annualized ZORI-to-sold-price figure is therefore only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot represent operating income, expenses, financing, cap rate, or property yield.","title":"Resale evidence supports caution on broad rent-to-price interpretation"}],"risks":["The current asking-rent index follows a historically variable series with recent declines, so treating one month’s ZIP-level figure as a durable rent level can overstate precision.","Zillow asking rent, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards cover different populations, timing, utilities, and purposes; apparent gaps between them do not identify an error or a property-level opportunity.","Median household income and renter burden are aggregate survey measures with sampling uncertainty, and neither can establish whether a particular household qualifies for or can sustain a particular lease.","The resale price denominator and Redfin market signals concern direct ZIP for-sale observations; converting them into a rent-to-price ratio omits unit condition, operating costs, turnover, and transaction-specific differences."],"qa":[{"a":"They are different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS result also reflects survey timing and a matched ZCTA statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates provide internally consistent screening values but cannot substitute for current listings, executed leases, or unit-specific utility terms.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The one-year and three-year rent changes are negative, while the five-year change remains positive, so recent movement has broken from the longer path. Measured variability and a meaningful historical drawdown show that rents have moved unevenly. The current snapshot is useful as an observed index level, but the backward-looking history argues against treating it as a forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It compares annualized ZIP ZORI with Redfin’s median sold price in the same ZIP and can help frame a cross-source rent-to-price screen. It cannot measure cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The ratio excludes operating costs, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, financing, unit condition, and differences between rental and resale observations.","q":"What can the Redfin screening ratio tell a reader?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1166.873575},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1182.2854},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1205.984501},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1230.127889},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1246.656278},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1288.378637},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1321.269997},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1373.883698},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1404.91367},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1421.308836},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1451.923046},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1488.179547},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1513.323133},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1509.588989},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1502.163962},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1508.662481},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1519.056534},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1529.562762},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1514.732567},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1542.710654},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1547.622952},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1578.08648},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1571.454125},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1553.355707},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1529.47589},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1534.248865},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1539.081545},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1545.752984},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1519.529973},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1502.770797},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1484.320105},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1479.090414},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1473.899603},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1461.868109},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1475.833619},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1480.986171},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1503.153451},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1509.510032},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1521.081204},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1516.471055},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1518.473346},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1532.937259},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1544.645616},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1546.179839},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1544.56032},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1544.935568},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1539.850156},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1548.85032},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1548.501448},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1557.968257},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1545.161174},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1549.193075},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1560.799731},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1557.589792},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1560.90825},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1557.851693},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1559.833594},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1558.238916},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1553.815681},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1544.315087},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1534.319924},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1519.223479},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1517.154167}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":63,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":0.984375,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1545.161174,"endRent":1517.154167,"change":-0.018125621761189925,"cagr":-0.018125621761189925},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1539.081545,"endRent":1517.154167,"change":-0.014247054076657162,"cagr":-0.004771751420192927},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1230.127889,"endRent":1517.154167,"change":0.23333043707620527,"cagr":0.04283569925827391}},"maxDrawdown":-0.07364512178065163,"annualizedVolatility":0.04019260410550127,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}