At the current snapshot, this ZIP shows cooling in both rent and resale evidence, although the measures are not interchangeable or predictive. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,780 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease comparison for every home. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price equals 7.10%, but this is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The separate direct Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is for-sale evidence; its year-over-year price decline, detailed below, neither sets asking rent nor describes rental transactions.
ZORI history through the stated endpoint is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast or investment recommendation. Exact same-month annualized rent changes were −0.31% over one year, −0.27% over three years, and +4.07% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the short- and medium-horizon cooling path while breaking from the positive longer path. Coverage is 100% throughout the observed history. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.43%, with a maximum drawdown of −2.29%. This complete record supports confidence in series continuity, but the current downward direction means a single rent snapshot deserves measured confidence. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,512 for momentum, 568 for stability, and 1,909 for balanced; lower ranks are higher, and these are discovery tools rather than performance claims.
Source definitions frame the gaps. The five-digit label 34741 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,661. That survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike an observed asking-rent index. HUD’s FY2026 local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,950. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Thus ACS and HUD numbers are useful benchmarks from distinct universes, not replacements for the ZIP ZORI.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,488 for a studio, $1,561 for one bedroom, $1,780 for two bedrooms, $2,236 for three bedrooms, and $2,638 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD bedroom relationships around the ZIP-wide index. They are not measured bedroom rents, do not identify an available unit, and should not be treated as asking-rent quotes for a particular layout, building, or lease term.
Affordability is the sharper tension in the available rental screens. At a 30% arithmetic threshold, annual gross income needed to support the current ZORI is $71,200, versus $52,409 median household income reported by ACS. The resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 40.76%. This calculation is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In ACS burden data, 8,921 of 13,316 renter households—66.99%—reported paying at least that threshold of income toward rent. That survey aggregate cannot establish the burden, price, or availability of a particular unit. The matched ZCTA’s housing stock contains 22,386 units: 19,840 occupied and 2,546 vacant, for an 11.37% vacancy rate; 1,482 vacant units are categorized for rent. Vacancy is a category count, not proof that any given home can be leased.
Broader-area benchmarks put the ZIP below all three reported rent contexts without making them ZIP substitutes. The city-context rent for Kissimmee is $2,045.98, the county-context rent for Osceola County is $2,091, and the metro-context rent for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL, is $1,972; each applies to its named wider scope, not the ZIP. These comparisons help locate the index relative to city, county, and metro aggregates, but they do not reconcile the differences among ZIP ZORI, ZCTA gross rent, and HUD standards. Nor do they establish a reason for the lower ZIP reading or a rent level for a specific property.
Liquidity signals come only from Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. It reports a $300,932 median sold price, down 10.7% year over year, with 104 homes sold, 42 median days on market, 224 homes of inventory, and 6.5 months of supply. Average sale-to-list is 97.25%, while 8.92% of sales closed above list. The tension is pace: the resale-price decline is materially steeper than ZORI’s recent history, confirming cooling while challenging any assumption that rent and resale move by the same magnitude. The recorded sales count shows observed resale activity, but supply and sale-to-list signals describe for-sale negotiation and liquidity only; they cannot be used as rental comps or property economics.
The most material uncertainty is matching aggregate measurements to an actual address. A property-level review can verify the bedroom and floor plan, current advertised rents and availability, utility responsibilities and recurring charges, lease duration and concessions, and whether the address is in the relevant ZIP market identifier and ZCTA. For a potential resale comparison, the needed checks are the home’s condition, listing history, contemporaneous direct sale comparables, inventory status, and negotiated terms. Those checks preserve the distinction between a blended asking-rent index, an ACS survey, an administrative HUD standard, and a Redfin resale observation. Which property-specific facts would materially change the interpretation of this ZIP snapshot?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI is a blended, typical observed asking-rent index, and history shows slight short- and medium-horizon contraction after a positive five-year path. Complete series coverage and limited drawdown strengthen continuity of the historical record, but they do not turn the downward recent direction into a forecast. Discovery ranks are comparative labels rather than pricing or performance judgments.","title":"Cooling is recent, not a forecast"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen places annual income needed for the current index above the ACS median household-income figure. ACS also reports a large share of renter households at or above the burden threshold. Both are aggregate screens, however: they do not account for household composition, non-rent obligations, unit utilities, subsidies, or the terms offered on a particular lease.","title":"Affordability screen exceeds ACS median income"},{"body":"Matched-ZCTA ACS gross rent, ZIP ZORI, and local HUD standards answer different questions. ACS reports occupied renter households and selected utilities; ZORI follows observed asking rents across blended rental types; HUD applies a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The studio-through-four-bedroom ladder is consequently a HUD-scaled model, useful for proportional screening but not proof of measured rents by bedroom.","title":"Bedroom values are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale view shows a substantial year-over-year median-price decline, months of supply above the reported metro context, and average transactions below list, while still recording completed sales. This corroborates a cooling resale tone alongside the rent history, but it remains sales-market evidence. It cannot establish rental demand, lease pricing, expenses, or financial results.","title":"Resale price adjustment is steeper"}],"risks":["The asking-rent index blends rental types and does not identify a property’s bedroom count, utilities, concessions, condition, or lease term, so applying it directly to a listing can misstate the live asking position.","ACS burden, vacancy, income, and gross-rent figures are matched-ZCTA five-year survey aggregates rather than unit records. Sampling error, different geography conventions, and household variation mean they cannot establish affordability, availability, or burden for a specific address.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks, while Redfin measures sales; treating either as rental transaction evidence would mix evidence universes and could create an unsupported conclusion about rent or property economics.","The direct resale observation shows declining prices and negotiation signals, but it is a rolling aggregated for-sale view; it does not supply income, operating costs, property condition, or expected future results."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level index of typical observed asking rents blended across rental types. ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Their timing, universe, and geographic conventions differ, so the gap is descriptive and does not create a unit-level appraisal or rental comp.","q":"Why are the ZIP ZORI and ACS gross-rent figures different measures?"},{"a":"Each bedroom figure starts with the ZIP-wide ZORI and applies the local HUD bedroom ladder’s relative steps. That produces a transparent modelled estimate for screening across bedroom counts. It does not observe advertised or signed rents for studio, one-bedroom, or larger units, and cannot establish the rent of a particular floor plan.","q":"How should the modelled bedroom estimates be interpreted?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply divides the annualized ZIP asking-rent index by 30% of gross income to show the income amount implied by that arithmetic threshold. It does not test credit, assets, household size, subsidies, debts, lease terms, or any landlord’s criteria, and is not advice or a qualification rule.","q":"Does the 30% income screen qualify a renter or provide advice?"},{"a":"Redfin establishes only a direct rolling-three-month view of ZIP for-sale activity, including sold-price, supply, marketing-time, and sale-to-list observations. It can contextualize whether resale data also look cooler or firmer than rent history. It cannot serve as rental transaction evidence, a bedroom rent comp, or a statement of property operating results.","q":"What can the Redfin resale observation validate?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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