This ZIP’s Zillow ZORI is $2,111 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a lease quote or a measured apartment category. The latest exact same-month movement is -0.13% over one year, even though the same index rose at annualized rates of 1.11% across three years and 5.83% across five years. The immediate reading is therefore a nearly flat-to-down asking-rent snapshot that breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer upward path. The central decision tension is whether this shallow reversal is temporary index movement or a meaningful change in pricing conditions; the supplied evidence does not resolve that question.
The rent history is complete, with 100% coverage for the available monthly series. At 3.09%, annualized monthly-return variability indicates that asking-rent changes have moved around enough that a small current decline should not be over-read as a durable shift. Separately, the largest peak-to-trough decline in the historical index reaches 3.41%, showing that past softening has been limited but real. The transparent national discovery ranks are 2,276 for momentum, 1,766 for stability, and 2,426 for the balanced measure; lower ranks place higher among history-eligible ZIPs. These are backward-looking discovery measurements, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or evidence that the next observation will move in either direction.
The five-digit 34743 label is Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and has a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Its ACS median gross rent is $1,827, making the Zillow asking-rent index 15.5% higher. Those figures should not be substituted for one another: ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,040, and ZORI is 3.5% above it. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent measure or a rent comparable.
The bedroom figures translate the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder and are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The resulting monthly estimates are $1,770 for a studio, $1,852 for one bedroom, $2,111 for two bedrooms, $2,649 for three bedrooms, and $3,125 for four bedrooms. Their pattern preserves the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom relationships rather than documenting actual listings in each size category. The two-bedroom estimate matching the overall ZORI does not establish that a typical available unit has two bedrooms, nor does it reveal concession terms, utilities, furnishing, condition, or the distribution of units within the asking-rent index.
Using the conventional 30% arithmetic screen, annualizing the $2,111 ZORI produces required household income of $84,440. That is above the ACS median household income of $62,992, and the direct asking-rent-to-income calculation equals 40.2%. This is arithmetic rather than advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a statement about any household’s actual budget. The ACS renter-household burden measure adds a separate historical signal: 2,610 of 3,886 renter households, or 67.2%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. Because it is a survey measure of occupied renter homes, that burden share cannot prove affordability, rent burden, or eligibility for a particular currently marketed unit.
The ACS stock profile provides an important check on interpreting vacancy. Of 13,528 total housing units, 950 are vacant, producing a 7.0% all-unit vacancy rate; only 16 are categorized as vacant for rent, while 501 are seasonal. Those classifications are not a current rental-availability count and cannot establish that a particular unit is vacant or easy to lease. The reported structure mix is heavily weighted toward 12,131 single-family units, compared with 261 large multifamily units. That composition helps describe the survey housing stock, but it does not identify the type of homes represented in Zillow’s blended asking-rent index or the bedroom distribution of active listings.
For wider asking-rent context, Kissimmee city is $2,046, Osceola County is $2,091, and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL metro is $1,972. The ZIP index sits above each of those wider-scope figures, but city, county, and metro values are context rather than ZIP rental comparables. The metro’s rent-to-income context ratio is 30.13%, below the ZIP’s arithmetic screen, yet the comparison combines a metro-level measure with a ZIP ZORI and matched-ZCTA income measure. It should therefore frame scale differences, not establish a location-specific affordability conclusion. The stronger ZIP-level evidence remains the modest recent ZORI decline alongside longer-run historical growth.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price is $349,621, down 1.52% year over year, with 95 homes sold, 30 median days on market, inventory of 108 homes, and 3.4 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence is also below a uniformly competitive reading: the average sale-to-list ratio is 98.04%, 21.76% of homes sold above list, and 25.63% went off market within two weeks. The 7.25% annualized-ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level return measure. Softer resale pricing and below-list sales signals align with the recent rent cooling, yet completed sales volume and marketing time show resale activity rather than rental evidence. A property-level comparison would still require actual asking rents, lease terms and concessions, utility responsibility, bedroom count, condition, listing dates, and directly comparable sale records.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI is $2,111, with a slight one-year decline after positive annualized changes over the three-year and five-year windows. The small recent reversal is meaningful as a change in direction, but historical variability and drawdown data indicate that one current asking-rent reading alone provides limited confidence about persistence.","title":"Recent asking-rent cooling interrupts a longer growth path"},{"body":"The annualized 30% income screen for ZIP ZORI exceeds the matched-ZCTA median household income, while a substantial ACS share of occupied renter households reported rent burdens of at least 30% of income. These are population-level arithmetic and survey signals, not proof of an individual household’s affordability or a unit’s qualification standard.","title":"Affordability screens point to a cross-source gap"},{"body":"The all-unit ACS vacancy rate should not be read as active rental supply. Only a small portion of vacant units is classified as for rent, while seasonal units account for a much larger component. The stock is also predominantly single-family, so broad housing counts do not reveal the composition of Zillow’s blended rental index.","title":"Vacancy requires careful interpretation"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year median sold-price decline and average sales below list, which is directionally consistent with the rent history’s recent cooling. However, homes sold, days on market, inventory, and supply are for-sale measures, not rental comps or evidence of property-level rental economics.","title":"Resale evidence supports caution but remains separate"}],"risks":["The Zillow asking-rent index, ACS survey median, HUD administrative benchmark, and Redfin resale statistics use different populations and timing; treating them as interchangeable rental comparables would create a misleading conclusion.","The one-year rent decline is small relative to the historical variability measure, so it may not identify a durable pricing regime. Historical measurements are backward-looking and do not provide a forecast.","ACS vacancy, renter burden, income, and housing-stock measures are survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, not live inventory, current tenant records, or proof of conditions at a particular address.","The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price screen omits property-specific costs, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, lease concessions, and unit quality. It should remain a cross-source screen rather than a property economics conclusion."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The gap can describe different evidence universes, timing, and unit mixes; it does not show that either source is incorrect.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve relative bedroom differences from an administrative standard, but they do not measure listed rents, executed leases, concessions, utility treatment, or unit quality.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"Cooling describes the backward-looking pattern in which the latest one-year same-month ZORI change is slightly negative after positive annualized changes across longer historical windows. It does not predict future rents, establish causation, or indicate that every rental type, listing, or lease in the ZIP has declined.","q":"What does the cooling classification mean here?"},{"a":"It provides a separate directional check, not validation. The rolling-three-month Redfin evidence shows softer median sold pricing and below-list sale signals, which can be read alongside recent rent cooling. Yet resale transactions, inventory, marketing time, and supply describe the for-sale market rather than rental transactions or landlord operating results.","q":"Does the resale market validate the rent signal?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 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