At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI for ZIP 34744 was $2,154 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is neither a signed-lease measure nor a measured rent for one bedroom count. Its exact same-month annualized change was -0.38% over one year and -0.59% over three years, against +3.88% over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path. On an annualized basis, the month-to-month return dispersion is 2.98%, indicating moderate variation around its trend. The worst peak-to-trough decline in the series reached -3.73%. Those measurements are backward-looking: they support reasonable confidence that the index has moved modestly recently, but less confidence that one current snapshot represents every listing or lease.
The for-sale reading also shows price cooling, but it is a distinct universe. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $402,899, down 2.92% from a year earlier. The block recorded 189 homes sold and a median 38 days on market; inventory stood at 302 homes with 4.8 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 97.88%, only a minority sold above list, and 32.42% went off market within two weeks. These are resale transactions, not rental transactions or rental comps. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 6.42% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The resale price decline confirms the rent index's recent cooling direction, although the recorded sales and marketing signals challenge any claim of an inactive for-sale market.
Affordability produces a more difficult cross-source tension. The ZCTA's median household income was $74,537, whereas paying the ZIP asking index at a 30% rent-to-income screen arithmetically corresponds to $86,160 of annual income. That screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; on these measures the asking-rent-to-income ratio is 34.7%. In the ACS five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,617 and includes selected utilities. The asking index is 33.2% higher, a difference expected when a current blended asking series is compared with a five-year survey of occupied renter homes. ACS reports 67.4% of renter households meeting that burden threshold, but that survey burden statistic cannot establish the burden or availability of any particular unit.
The bedroom ladder should not be read as a set of measured ZIP rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the local HUD ladder is $1,440 for a studio, $1,720 for two bedrooms, and $2,550 for four bedrooms. Scaling the $2,154 ZIP ZORI by that ladder gives modelled monthly estimates of $1,803 for a studio, $1,891 for one bedroom, $2,154 for two bedrooms, $2,705 for three bedrooms, and $3,193 for four bedrooms. The modelled estimates preserve HUD's relative bedroom steps; they do not observe leases, actual asking listings by bedroom, unit condition, or utility treatment.
Housing composition comes from the matched Census ZCTA in the ACS 2024 five-year survey, not from a live inventory count. For this five-digit label, 34744 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Of 24,090 housing units in the ZCTA, the vacancy rate was 6.4% and renters occupied 33.5% of occupied homes. The stock included 16,811 single-family units compared with 1,147 units in large multifamily structures. The reported 237 units vacant for rent are a category within that survey, not proof that a specific rental is presently open, affordable, or comparable to ZORI. Sampling error and survey timing also limit property-level interpretation.
Wider-area comparisons put the current ZIP reading above each supplied rent context, without converting those places into ZIP evidence. In the same context sentence, the Kissimmee city-context rent was $2,046, the Osceola County context rent was $2,091, and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL metro-context rent was $1,972. City, county, and metro values remain wider-geography context, not substitutes for a ZIP asking index, ZCTA survey statistic, HUD standard, or direct ZIP resale observation. The differences help frame the $2,154 figure, but differences in geographic scope, housing mix, and source construction prevent them from functioning as local bedroom or unit comparables.
The history series has 100% coverage, containing 138 monthly observations through the stated endpoint and uninterrupted adjacent-month returns. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,548 for momentum, 1,585 for stability, and 2,524 for the balanced score, where a lower rank is higher. These are descriptive discovery ranks, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or judgments about a property's prospects. They fit the cooling classification because short and medium same-month changes are negative even though the longer record remains positive. The measured variability in the history argues against treating the current ZORI as a fixed price: it is an index observation whose decision value rises only when the actual unit, timing, and bedroom mix are known.
Several limits remain before any property-specific conclusion can be drawn. ZORI is a ZIP-level blended asking index, ACS describes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey window and includes selected utilities, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin reports a rolling resale window; none provides a lease quote for a particular address. Concrete checks therefore require confirming that address's delivery ZIP and ZCTA treatment, bedroom count, property type, listed rent, included utilities, lease term, concessions, availability date, and condition. A resale comparison also requires matching the property's type and transaction timing rather than applying the ZIP median mechanically. The burden screen and vacancy categories describe groups, not a landlord's terms or a renter's qualification. Which supplied measure can be directly matched to the address, lease, and property type under review?
","findings":[{"body":"The recent one-year and three-year ZORI changes are negative, while the five-year annualized result is positive. That makes cooling a break in the longer record rather than a complete reversal. Monthly variability and the contained historical drawdown make the index useful as a trend measurement, but not as a unit-specific lease quote.","title":"Cooling has interrupted the longer rent path"},{"body":"ZORI sits above ACS median gross rent because it measures blended current asking conditions, while ACS surveys occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. The income screen and burden statistic identify an affordability tension at the group level, not a tenant's eligibility or actual unit payment.","title":"The affordability comparison has different source universes"},{"body":"Redfin reports a resale price decrease alongside recorded home sales, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list signals. This confirms the direction of recent ZORI cooling but does not turn sale data into rental evidence. The annualized-rent-to-price calculation is useful only as a cross-source screen; it excludes property-level economics and is not any form of return measure.","title":"Resale signals align directionally but remain separate"},{"body":"The direct ZIP asking index, ZCTA survey, HUD standards, wider-area context, and ZIP resale observation answer different questions and carry different time windows. Address-level facts can resolve only through exact location, bedroom configuration, asking rent, included utilities, lease terms, availability, property type, condition, and appropriate resale comparability.","title":"Address-level facts remain unresolved"}],"risks":["ZORI's June reading is a blended asking-rent index, so applying it to a specific home can misstate the effect of bedroom count, condition, utilities, concessions, lease length, or timing.","ACS ZCTA figures are five-year survey estimates of occupied homes, and the ZCTA is not the USPS ZIP; vacancy and burden cannot identify current availability or a particular tenant's experience.","HUD ladder figures are administrative standards used only to scale modelled estimates. They should not be treated as measured ZIP rents, lease quotes, or evidence of actual bedroom-level listing supply.","Redfin's rolling resale metrics describe for-sale transactions and marketing conditions, not rental economics. The rent-price ratio is cross-source screening only and omits property costs, financing, and lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. They differ in timing, population, and construction, so the reported gap is a comparison between source universes rather than an inconsistency.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI exceed the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates therefore do not report observed lease payments, listing rents, unit quality, utility treatment, or bedroom-specific supply.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured rents for 34744?"},{"a":"Redfin's figures are direct ZIP for-sale and resale observations over a rolling three-month window. They describe sold prices, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list behavior, not rents. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"What does the rent-price screening ratio measure?"},{"a":"The 34744 label is used as both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and Census ZCTA match in this packet. A ZCTA is a statistical area, whereas a USPS delivery ZIP supports mail delivery. That difference, plus ACS's five-year survey design, means an address must be checked rather than assumed to inherit a ZCTA statistic.","q":"Why should the ZCTA and delivery ZIP be checked for a specific address?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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