At $2,800, the current ZIP 34747 Zillow Observed Rent Index presents a rent signal that is moving differently from the ZIP resale backdrop. The index rose 5.25% from the same month a year earlier, an accelerating short-run reading, and is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for one dwelling. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That geographic match enables comparison, but it does not erase differences among underlying datasets or make the index a particular property's rent.
The longer record gives the acceleration needed context rather than a forecast. Exact same-month annualized change was 1.27% over three years and 5.07% over five years; the latest one-year pace therefore breaks above the muted three-year path while broadly confirming the positive five-year path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.31%, and the maximum drawdown was 4.21%. Coverage is 100% across 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 990 for momentum, 2,053 for stability, and 1,491 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the observed variability means one current rent snapshot warrants less confidence than a stable unit-specific lease quote.
ACS supplies a different, resident-facing baseline. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,827 median gross rent, with a $63 margin of error, for occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities. The current asking index is 1.53 times that survey median. This gap is not evidence that either measure is wrong: ZORI follows typical observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS records a survey median for households already occupying rental homes. The ZCTA remains a statistical approximation to the ZIP market, not a USPS delivery ZIP, and neither series identifies the current price, utility package, or lease terms of any exact unit.
The supplied HUD ladder is useful for scaling the ZIP index, but it has a separate administrative purpose. HUD fair-market-rent or small-area fair-market-rent values are bedroom-specific standards, not asking rents. Scaling ZORI by this local ladder’s $2,220 two-bedroom standard produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,346 for a studio, $2,459 for one bedroom, $2,800 for two bedrooms, $3,519 for three bedrooms, and $4,150 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and should not be read as new listing observations or as a tenant eligibility test. The ladder preserves local bedroom spacing; it does not prove that any available property fits its estimated figure.
Affordability evidence is also survey-based, and its arithmetic needs a narrow reading. The ZCTA’s median household income is $77,755. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the asking index yields $112,000 of required annual income and an asking-rent-to-income relationship of 43.2%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports 3,712 renter households spending at least that threshold out of 6,170 renter households, or 60.2%; the share characterizes surveyed households and cannot prove burden for a particular unit or renter. For wider context, Kissimmee city’s rent context is $2,046, Osceola County’s context is $2,091, and the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro context is $1,972; each is a named broader-scope comparison, not ZIP evidence.
The matched ZCTA stock data warn against equating a high vacancy figure with live long-term rental availability. Of 22,432 housing units, 12,421 were occupied and 10,011 vacant, producing a 44.6% vacancy rate in the survey classification. Seasonal vacancies account for 8,671 units, while 948 were classified vacant for rent. The structure mix includes 10,767 single-family units and 3,088 large multifamily units. These counts give scale and composition, not a real-time count of listings, lease-ready homes, or attainable prices. In particular, the seasonal and for-rent categories cannot establish the availability, condition, rent, or suitability of a specific property; direct listing verification remains separate from the ACS survey.
Direct resale observations sharpen the central tension but remain entirely in the for-sale universe. In Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $449,898, down 4.28% year over year; 430 homes sold with a median 72 days on market. Reported inventory was 1,048 homes and months of supply was 7.4. The average sale-to-list ratio was 96.38%, while 4.79% of sales closed above list. Those resale liquidity and pricing signals challenge a simple reading of rising asking rent as confirmation across markets. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals a 7.47% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or evidence about rental transactions.
Decision use depends on keeping these contrasts intact: a blended asking-rent index, a household survey, an administrative HUD standard, and a rolling resale dataset answer different questions. Before applying the summary to an address, the concrete checks are the current advertised rent, bedroom count, square footage, property type, furnishing status, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, listing date, and whether the listing is active; for a sale, verify closed status, transaction date, list price, condition, and size. Those checks can reveal why an individual property diverges from an area statistic without treating vacancy, burden, or resale indicators as proof about it. The practical closing question is whether the exact property’s terms support the comparison being made, rather than whether any single ZIP-level indicator supplies the answer.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI reached $2,800 after a 5.25% same-month increase, while the direct ZIP rolling resale median was $449,898 and 4.28% lower year over year. The contrast is a cross-universe tension, not causation: rent measures asking conditions and Redfin measures completed for-sale transactions. It supports checking current listing and transaction details rather than inferring one market from the other.","title":"Asking-rent acceleration is not mirrored by resale"},{"body":"ACS’s matched ZCTA reports $1,827 median gross rent, including selected utilities, compared with the asking index’s 1.53-times relationship to that median. The survey covers occupied renter homes, while ZORI blends observed asking rents across rental types. The difference is useful as a source-scope flag and affordability context, not as proof of a rent change for a particular address.","title":"ACS households sit below the asking index"},{"body":"The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,220, and scaling the ZIP index produces a $2,800 modelled two-bedroom estimate. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. The estimates retain the local bedroom ladder but cannot substitute for direct bedroom-specific rental comparisons, lease terms, or utility information.","title":"HUD-scaled bedrooms are estimates, not observations"},{"body":"The 44.6% ZCTA vacancy rate includes 8,671 seasonal units, alongside 948 units classified vacant for rent. This composition makes the headline rate unsuitable as a direct estimate of available long-term inventory. Survey categories also do not establish price, condition, timing, or tenant fit for a specific dwelling; active listing verification remains necessary.","title":"Vacancy requires composition review"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index rather than a quote for a particular home, so its current level can differ materially from a unit’s bedroom count, condition, utilities, furnishing, concessions, lease term, and active listing status.","The ACS five-year ZCTA survey has a different geography, population, timing, and rent definition from ZORI, and its published margins of error mean small apparent differences should not be treated as exact property-level facts.","Redfin’s rolling resale figures track for-sale transactions, not rental deals. A falling sold-price median or supply measure cannot establish lease demand, tenant affordability, a home’s expenses, or the economics of a prospective rental.","The elevated survey vacancy rate is heavily associated with seasonal classifications in the packet. It does not show that a particular vacant home is rentable, listed, habitable, unfurnished, available now, or priced near the ZIP index."],"qa":[{"a":"They describe different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and median gross rent includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is statistical, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the measures should be compared as context rather than fused.","q":"Why are the asking and ACS rents so far apart?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. They provide a consistent size ladder, but actual rents need property-level verification of bedroom count, utilities, furnishing, condition, lease length, and listing terms.","q":"Are the bedroom rents direct observations?"},{"a":"It divides the annualized asking-rent index by thirty percent to produce an arithmetic income benchmark. It is neither leasing advice nor an applicant qualification rule, and it does not determine what any household can pay. The ACS burden statistic describes surveyed renter households, which may face different rents, utilities, timing, and household incomes than an active listing.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"Use it as a separate ZIP for-sale observation. Its price, sales pace, market time, supply, and sale-to-list results can show whether resale movement aligns with or conflicts with asking-rent history, but they are not rental comparisons. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure remains only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, expected return, or property-level outcome.","q":"How should direct resale data affect interpretation of current rent?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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