For ZIP-market label 35242, the practical decision is whether a current listing sits near the local asking-rent center and whether its household-income screen is plausible, not whether a broad statistic declares a unit affordable. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,579 per month, down 0.33% year over year—a nearly flat signal rather than a large rent reset. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, that monthly figure arithmetically maps to $63,160 in annual income. That calculation is neither financial advice nor an applicant qualification rule; landlords may use different income definitions, multipliers, fees and screening criteria. The same label is also matched to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The bedroom ladder helps evaluate unit-size differences, but every ZIP bedroom amount is modelled rather than directly measured. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,281 for a studio, $1,439 for one bedroom, $1,579 for two bedrooms, $1,974 for three bedrooms and $2,246 for four bedrooms. The corresponding FY2026 HUD standards are $1,460, $1,640, $1,800, $2,250 and $2,560. The model preserves HUD’s local bedroom-to-bedroom relationships while anchoring the two-bedroom estimate to the ZIP asking-rent index. It does not establish that available apartments of each size actually rent at those amounts. Layout, condition, lease term, concessions and utility treatment can create substantial listing-level differences.
Income and renter evidence show why a market-level rent can coexist with meaningful household strain. The ACS 2024 five-year median household income is $117,047, but that statistic covers households generally and is not a renter-only income measure. Renters account for 26.8% of occupied homes: 6,427 renter households within 23,978 occupied units. Among renter households for which burden is tabulated, 49.9%, or 3,207 households, crossed the standard gross-rent burden threshold. This is an observed survey distribution, not proof that the current asking index is manageable or unmanageable for any particular household. ACS sampling uncertainty also applies, so small apparent differences should not be treated as exact population facts.
The housing base is tilted toward single-family structures rather than large multifamily inventory. Of 25,431 housing units, 18,768 are single-family units and 1,927 are in large multifamily structures. The ACS identifies 1,453 vacant units, equivalent to a 5.71% housing vacancy rate. Within the vacancy classifications supplied, 302 units were designated for rent, 92 for sale and 110 for seasonal use; the remaining vacant units fall into other classifications. These counts describe survey categories across the ZCTA, not a real-time rental availability list. In particular, total vacancy cannot be converted into the probability that a suitable rental is open, appropriately priced or available on a desired move-in date.
The benchmarks answer different questions and should not be blended into a single rent claim. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ACS median gross rent is $1,472, making the Zillow index 7.27% higher, but ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That timing, occupancy basis and utility treatment differ from current asking rents. HUD’s two-bedroom standard is $1,800, placing the ZIP index at 87.72% of that amount. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an observed asking rent. These gaps are useful reference points, but none demonstrates that a listing is overpriced, underpriced or eligible for a program.
Wider comparisons change with geography and metric. For Birmingham city, the Zillow rent context is $1,359.49, while the ACS renter share is 54.50% and ACS housing vacancy is 18.80%. For Shelby County, the Zillow rent context is $1,728, while the ACS renter share is 18.64% and ACS housing vacancy is 5.58%. For the Birmingham-Hoover, AL metro, the Zillow rent context is $1,462, while a separate metro apartment series reports 7.12% vacancy. The ZIP asking-rent center is therefore above the city and metro contexts but below the county context. Its renter share sits between the city and county measures. Metro apartment vacancy is not equivalent to ACS vacancy across all housing units, so those rates should not be read as interchangeable supply measures.
The strongest use of this report is as a disciplined screening frame, not a substitute for property-level evidence. ZORI is an index rather than a quote, ACS estimates describe a statistical geography and prior survey period, HUD standards serve administrative purposes, and the bedroom figures inherit both the Zillow anchor and HUD ladder assumptions. Before comparing a property with the ZIP center, confirm that its address actually falls within the intended market geography and do not rely solely on the ZCTA-to-USPS label match. Check the advertised base rent, bedroom count, lease length, included utilities, mandatory recurring fees, concessions, deposit terms, parking or pet charges and availability date. Compare both effective rent and gross housing cost using consistent inclusions, then apply any landlord screening formula separately from the arithmetic income screen.
","findings":[{"body":"The June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $1,579 per month and is down 0.33% year over year. That is a small movement in the ZIP-level asking-rent index. The index sits 7.27% above the ACS median gross rent, but the comparison is directional because Zillow tracks current observed asking rents while ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities.","title":"Asking rent is nearly flat, not sharply resetting"},{"body":"The modelled ladder runs from $1,281 for a studio to $2,246 for four bedrooms, with the two-bedroom estimate anchored at $1,579. These are not measured bedroom-specific rents. They apply the relative shape of the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI, so listing characteristics, concessions, lease terms and utility arrangements can produce materially different property-level prices.","title":"Bedroom figures are model outputs"},{"body":"Median household income is $117,047, while the arithmetic income associated with current ZORI under a 30% screen is $63,160. Those figures should not be treated as a qualification finding because the median is not renter-specific. ACS separately estimates that 49.9% of renter households in the burden universe crossed the standard gross-rent burden threshold, showing substantial observed variation among renters.","title":"Aggregate income does not erase renter burden"},{"body":"Single-family units account for 18,768 of the ZCTA’s 25,431 housing units, compared with 1,927 units in large multifamily structures. ACS reports a 5.71% overall housing vacancy rate, but only 302 vacant units were classified as for rent. Neither measure is a live count of leasable properties, and neither establishes availability, asking price, condition or bedroom fit for an individual search.","title":"Inventory is predominantly single-family"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so applying its ZIP-level center directly to a specific home can obscure differences in property type, condition, lease term, concessions and included costs.","The bedroom ladder inherits assumptions from both ZIP ZORI and the local HUD schedule. It may be useful for consistent scaling, but it is not evidence of completed leases or current bedroom-specific listings.","ACS income, tenure, vacancy and burden measures are survey estimates with sampling uncertainty and a five-year observation window. Treat close comparisons as approximate rather than exact current-market differences.","Wider-area statistics use different boundaries and sometimes different vacancy concepts. Birmingham city, Shelby County and Birmingham-Hoover metro values provide context but cannot substitute for ZIP- or property-level verification."],"qa":[{"a":"It serves as Zillow’s five-digit ZIP market identifier and is matched to the Census ZCTA used for ACS evidence. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area built to approximate ZIP patterns; it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Address-level boundary and delivery information should therefore be verified separately.","q":"What does the 35242 label represent in this report?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the relative bedroom pattern in the local HUD ladder. The values provide a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom framework, but they are not measured listing medians, signed-lease rents or evidence that a particular bedroom size is currently available.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"They describe separate evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent surveys occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Differences among them should be interpreted, not averaged away.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS and HUD report different rent levels?"},{"a":"The $63,160 required-income figure is arithmetic based on applying a 30% screen to current ZIP ZORI. It is not advice, an affordability verdict or a landlord qualification rule. The 49.9% ACS burden share describes surveyed renter households collectively and cannot determine whether a particular applicant qualifies or a particular unit is suitable.","q":"How should the income and burden figures be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1228.723603},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1237.913315},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1271.76782},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1282.841616},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1296.793572},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1306.16991},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1308.111583},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1327.82072},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1357.048703},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1380.871044},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1396.257883},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1428.739997},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1432.345652},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1434.106586},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1416.333022},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1435.454158},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1447.62948},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1453.868608},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1474.096333},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1484.299686},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1480.620701},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1449.153085},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1437.852911},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1439.4199},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1460.116153},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1476.099506},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1489.493417},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1486.871988},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1478.861044},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1484.522373},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1485.252015},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1487.61518},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1479.188188},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1496.037862},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1511.392896},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1525.923954},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1522.757727},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1520.328989},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1520.897349},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1517.132911},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1519.745743},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1517.980806},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1531.747865},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1522.596664},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1538.202511},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1544.461412},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1532.261456},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1520.293221},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1517.399019},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1554.850807},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1568.056442},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1583.384261},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1579.372764},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1584.191874},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1579.733589},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1592.557165},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1593.232453},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1593.736522},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1604.969575},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1612.652322},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1618.088189},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1591.254137},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1582.956713},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1576.504197},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1581.76522},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1578.930675}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1584.191874,"endRent":1578.930675,"change":-0.003321061726390351,"cagr":-0.003321061726390351},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1484.522373,"endRent":1578.930675,"change":0.06359506849951657,"cagr":0.020764219184430832},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1306.16991,"endRent":1578.930675,"change":0.20882487256194704,"cagr":0.03865825584919924}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0312920466386194,"annualizedVolatility":0.031898551387969355,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}