In ZIP 35244, the June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $1,342 per month, a current asking-rent benchmark rather than an executed-lease average. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is the direct ZIP rental-market snapshot in this packet. The central tension begins with a current level that follows recent slippage but remains embedded in a longer positive path; the later resale evidence supplies a separate, not interchangeable, check. This five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
ZORI’s exact same-month history shows a 1.36% decline over one year, contrasting with annualized gains of 1.43% over three years and 2.67% over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer upward path. The high-variability label fits annualized monthly-return variability of 4.51% and a maximum drawdown of 3.98%. History has 63 monthly observations, 100% expected coverage, and 62 consecutive return intervals, which makes the record complete for its stated window but does not make it predictive. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,424 for momentum, 2,746 for stability, and 2,794 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. Variation around the path warrants only moderate confidence in any one current snapshot.
Different rent series answer different questions. The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $1,472 for occupied renter homes, and this measure includes selected utilities; it is neither an asking-rent series nor a contemporaneous lease quote. Its level exceeds ZORI, but the two do not form contradictory property comparables. The local FY 2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,560, an administrative bedroom-specific benchmark rather than asking rent. As wider Zillow asking-rent-index context only, Hoover city is $1,377.79, Shelby County is $1,728, and the Birmingham-Hoover, AL metro is $1,462. Each city, county, and metro value is context only and does not replace direct ZIP evidence.
To create a bedroom view, ZIP ZORI is scaled by the local HUD ladder. The results are modelled monthly ZIP estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,084 for a studio, $1,222 for one bedroom, $1,342 for two bedrooms, $1,678 for three bedrooms, and $1,910 for four bedrooms. Their common starting point is the all-type Zillow index, and their relative spacing comes from the local HUD bedroom schedule. Consequently, the model is useful for comparing size bands within one consistent framework, but it cannot establish what a particular available unit is asking or leasing for. HUD standards themselves remain administrative benchmarks; the ladder does not convert them into observed ZIP asking rents or lease transactions.
The income screen is deliberately mechanical. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, annual income of $53,680 is required to place the current ZORI at that arithmetic share. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $113,450, but a median cannot reveal the income of an individual renter or applicant. In the ACS occupied-renter survey, 1,969 of 4,520 renter households are recorded as paying at least that threshold, or 43.56%. All ACS figures are survey estimates, and this gross-rent burden measure retains the survey’s selected-utility treatment. It neither proves a particular unit’s burden nor defines a qualification outcome. The required-income calculation is not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
The ACS ZCTA housing baseline records a 3.81% overall vacancy rate. It includes 11,397 single-family units and 1,094 units in large multifamily structures, a stock mix rather than a count of current rental inventory. Vacancies and renter burden are aggregate survey measures, not evidence that a specific home is available, vacant, or affordable. The broad vacancy measure spans more than active rentals and cannot be substituted for a live listing search. This stock profile is therefore a boundary on interpretation: ZORI summarizes asking rents, whereas ACS reports a multiyear household and housing-condition survey. It does not establish the condition, asking terms, or occupancy status of any given property.
Direct ZIP resale data provide a separate check, not rental comparables. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, median sold price is $502,886, down 0.91% from a year earlier; 169 homes sold with a median 51 days on market. Inventory is 188 homes, up 3.95%, and months of supply are 3.4. The average sale-to-list result is 99.42%, while 31.74% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale indicators, not rental transactions. The modest sale-price decline and added inventory align with the current rent/history cooling signal, but close-to-list outcomes challenge a simple weak-market reading and do not settle the renter-income screen. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.20%, solely a cross-source screening ratio—not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or property economics.
These are bounded, backward-looking measurements rather than forecasts or investment recommendations. ZORI is an all-type asking-rent index; ACS is a surveyed occupied-home median with selected utilities; HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard; and Redfin observes resale activity. None sets a unit’s rent, availability, operating costs, or transaction terms. Property-level review should verify the actual bedroom count, current asking price, lease length, utility inclusions, availability date, condition, concessions, and whether comparable listings match the unit’s type. It should separately confirm the home’s resale listing and sale record before pairing rent and price evidence. Which documented unit terms explain any gap between its live asking price and the ZIP’s modelled bedroom estimate?
","findings":[{"body":"The current asking-rent index has declined over the shortest same-month window even though the longer annualized windows remain positive. The complete observed record supports the measurement, but high monthly variability and drawdown reduce confidence that the current value is a stable anchor. These are backward-looking ZORI measurements, not a rent forecast.","title":"Recent rent softness breaks a longer upward path"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD describe separate rent universes. ZORI is a typical asking-rent index; ACS median gross rent covers occupied renter homes across a survey window and includes selected utilities; HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The ZIP bedroom figures are HUD-scaled modelled estimates, not observed bedroom rents. None is a substitute for a live listing price or executed lease.","title":"Three rent concepts require separate interpretation"},{"body":"The required-income threshold is arithmetic, whereas the burden share is a ZCTA survey result for renter households. Neither identifies affordability for a particular renter, applicant, or available unit. The stock is weighted toward single-family units, and the aggregate vacancy rate is not live rental supply. Unit-level utility treatment, concessions, lease terms, bedroom count, and availability remain essential checks.","title":"Aggregate affordability and vacancy do not describe a unit"},{"body":"Redfin directly observes ZIP resale conditions in a rolling three-month window, not rentals. The sale-price movement and inventory increase align with recent rent softness, while near-list sale outcomes add a counter-signal. The annualized rent-to-sale-price calculation is useful only as a cross-source screen. It is not a cap rate or a measure of a property’s income, expenses, return, or leasing activity.","title":"Resale signals are mixed and remain outside the rental universe"}],"risks":["ZORI blends property types and captures asking-rent conditions, so its ZIP-level typical value can differ materially from a particular home’s current asking price, incentives, utility package, or lease length.","ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey rather than a live ZIP rental feed, and its medians, burden shares, household counts, and vacancy measures include sampling uncertainty and differing universes.","HUD standards are administrative and bedroom-specific; scaling ZORI with them produces modelled estimates whose relative size pattern may not match current listings, renovations, utilities, or concessions.","Redfin figures describe only ZIP for-sale and resale activity in the rolling observation, so sale prices, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes cannot establish rental demand, lease terms, or property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Because the two series do not share a universe or timing. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ACS figure is therefore not a live asking rent or a direct substitute for ZORI, and the difference does not price an individual unit.","q":"Why can the ACS median gross rent exceed Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the all-type ZORI. They provide a standardized size-band reference, not measured asking rents, signed leases, or direct unit comparables. Actual bedroom count, property type, utilities, condition, concessions, timing, and lease duration can all create a different live asking price.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual unit rents?"},{"a":"It shows that the most recent same-month ZORI movement was negative despite positive longer annualized movements. Full coverage supports the reported history, but elevated annualized monthly-return variability and the recorded maximum drawdown mean a current snapshot has limited stability. The data are backward-looking measurements; they do not forecast future asking rents or establish an investment outcome.","q":"What does the ZORI history say about confidence in the current rent reading?"},{"a":"No. It simply divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price, combining two different source universes for screening. It excludes property-specific rent, vacancy, operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, condition, and transaction terms. It therefore is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or a statement about a particular home.","q":"Can annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price be used as a yield or cap rate?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1078.915714},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1118.977139},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1176.148351},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1220.746913},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1224.877622},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1220.792145},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1217.526967},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1219.225691},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1262.787323},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1275.164541},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1282.567499},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1248.814629},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1251.043813},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1254.783846},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1265.546263},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1278.929788},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1285.458596},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1291.970164},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1276.543883},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1281.989649},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1264.311456},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1264.455843},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1271.887676},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1299.393362},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1316.372854},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1307.637216},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1285.799636},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1267.724485},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1264.042563},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1270.314701},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1292.33159},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1283.935895},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1274.987642},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1270.616703},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1269.737575},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1286.649532},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1283.737679},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1295.36715},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1297.990743},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1301.476867},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1306.164668},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1317.537505},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1327.61669},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1353.785524},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1354.488835},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1355.724547},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1362.213549},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1356.027846},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1366.885466},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1356.984331},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1360.333354},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1367.75951},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1369.678767},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1361.485618},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1350.682896},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1337.929625},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1347.629391},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1351.840668},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1348.771448},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1342.96691},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1335.019917},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1340.097177},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1341.766106}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":63,"firstPeriod":"2021-04-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":63,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1360.333354,"endRent":1341.766106,"change":-0.013649042674285572,"cagr":-0.013649042674285572},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1285.799636,"endRent":1341.766106,"change":0.04352658721704605,"cagr":0.014303302531224915},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1176.148351,"endRent":1341.766106,"change":0.14081366084404778,"cagr":0.02669853567744984}},"maxDrawdown":-0.039753395735096175,"annualizedVolatility":0.04505255807836603,"consecutiveReturnCount":62}}