At first glance, 36109 presents a split signal rather than a single rent story. June 2026 Zillow ZORI, the ZIP-level asking-rent index, is $1,284 per month and is 0.49% below its same-month level a year earlier. The 36109 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In contrast, the direct Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation places median sold price at $177,960, up 2.54% year over year. That contrast is a source-bound tension: sales evidence cannot be read as rental transactions, and a lower current asking-rent index does not settle the separate resale signal.
History shows why the current dip should not be isolated from its path. The supplied Zillow ZIP series has complete coverage across 63 monthly observations. Exact same-month change is negative over 1 year, but annualized change is positive at 3.95% over 3 years and 5.04% over 5 years. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer upward path. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.51% limits the confidence appropriate for any single current rent snapshot; the series' maximum drawdown of -1.81% was comparatively contained. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,703 for momentum, 702 for stability, and 1,212 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These backward-looking measurements describe prior observations only, not a forecast or investment recommendation.
Current sources answer different questions. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,142 median gross rent. That ACS measure covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, putting it 12.4% below June's ZORI without making either figure a like-for-like lease quote. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,030; Zillow's current index sits 24.7% higher. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Neither the ACS survey nor the HUD standard converts to a current advertised unit, so their gap from ZORI should be interpreted as a difference of universe and method.
The bedroom view is deliberately model-based rather than a rent-comp table. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,085 for a studio, $1,097 for a one-bedroom, $1,284 for a two-bedroom, $1,646 for a three-bedroom, and $1,945 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the calculation inherits both ZORI's blend across rental types and HUD's administrative bedroom pattern. The comparatively small studio-to-one-bedroom step and the larger upper-bedroom steps reveal the scaling design, not a count of listings, a lease distribution, or the rent that a particular home can command.
Income arithmetic supplies a separate affordability screen, but not a qualification result. The matched ZCTA ACS median household income is $59,193. At a 30% share of income, the current index implies required household income of $51,360, and its annualized amount equals 26.0% of that median. This arithmetic is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, the ACS burden estimate says 54.0% of occupied renter homes spend at least that threshold on rent. Burden is a survey distribution among households rather than proof of what any applicant, dwelling, or lease pays; it nonetheless makes the apparently moderate median-income screen less conclusive on its own.
ZCTA stock data provide scale but not unit-level availability. The matched area has a 10.8% vacancy rate, while its structure mix is 10,064 single-family units and 249 large multifamily units. Vacancy does not establish condition, price, lease readiness, or availability of any specific home. For wider context only, Montgomery city context rent is about $1,343, Montgomery County context rent is $1,364, and Montgomery, AL metro context rent is $1,429; each is above the ZIP asking-rent index. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-scope benchmarks, not substitutes for 36109 ZIP evidence or evidence that any of their properties compete directly with a ZIP listing.
Resale liquidity supplies a second tension rather than a rental conclusion. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, 136 homes sold with a median marketing time of 60 days; reported inventory was 182 homes and months of supply were 4.1. The average sale-to-list ratio was 96.62%, and 9.1% of sales closed above list. Those are for-sale market signals, not rental transactions, property economics, or rental comparables. Alongside the earlier median-price increase, the inventory and marketing data challenge a simple reading that the one-year ZORI decline defines every housing-market condition. They show resale liquidity and negotiation indicators that must remain in the Redfin resale universe.
The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin median sold price is 8.66%, a cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The rent-price screen, the rent history, the ACS burden result, and the resale observation cannot establish performance for an individual asset. A property-level interpretation would need checks of the address's ZIP and ZCTA placement, advertised rent and lease date, bedroom count, included utilities, condition, actual availability, and comparable sale dates and terms. It must also retain the ACS survey's uncertainty and avoid treating area vacancy or burden as proof about a particular unit. The unresolved question is whether verified property facts support, contradict, or simply fall outside these area-level screens.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index declined 0.49% from the same month a year earlier, while Redfin's ZIP median sold price increased 2.54%. This is a decision tension rather than a contradiction to solve by blending sources: ZORI tracks asking rents, while Redfin tracks completed resale activity. Each screen should remain independently interpreted.","title":"Cooling asking rent versus higher resale pricing"},{"body":"The longer Zillow path was positive at annualized rates over both three and five years, despite the latest one-year decrease. Complete coverage and a contained drawdown support confidence in the recorded history, while monthly variability cautions against treating one current ZORI reading as a complete description of the ZIP's rent conditions.","title":"Longer rent history remains positive despite the latest decline"},{"body":"The current asking-rent index clears the area-level 30% income arithmetic screen against median household income, yet 54.0% of occupied renter homes are estimated to exceed that burden threshold. The first is a calculation using area medians; the second is a survey distribution among existing renter households. Neither establishes affordability for a particular renter or unit.","title":"Median-income arithmetic and renter burden tell different stories"},{"body":"The Redfin observation records sales volume, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals for the ZIP's for-sale market. Those measures challenge a rent-only reading of local housing conditions, particularly alongside the reported price increase, but they are not rental comps and do not establish economics for any individual property.","title":"Resale liquidity is measurable but remains outside rental evidence"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR do not measure the same thing: they represent an asking-rent index, an occupied-household survey including selected utilities, and an administrative standard.","The median-income screen can obscure household variation. A ZIP-level arithmetic result does not establish whether a specific applicant's income, lease terms, utility responsibility, or housing costs fit a particular unit.","Area vacancy and housing-stock counts do not prove that a vacant home is rentable, competitively priced, in acceptable condition, or available when a renter seeks housing.","The rent-price figure combines an asking-rent index with a resale median. It excludes property operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, and property-specific rent evidence."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical asking-rent index based on observed rental listings and blended rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their difference highlights distinct source universes and timing, not a guaranteed rent for a currently advertised home.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI above the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease comparables, listing medians, or evidence that a particular unit of a given size is currently available at the displayed amount.","q":"Are the studio through four-bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"The latest one-year decline breaks from positive annualized three-year and five-year changes, making it a cooling observation against a previously rising longer path. Complete history coverage supports use of the record, but the reported monthly-return variability means one current rent index point should receive measured confidence rather than be treated as a trend forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about the latest decline?"},{"a":"Redfin provides a direct ZIP resale observation covering sold prices, sales pace, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. The annualized ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or substitute for property-level sales and rental verification.","q":"How should the Redfin resale evidence and rent-price screen be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":987.205707},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1004.60424},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1004.230535},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1010.533097},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1009.486498},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1030.633996},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1032.835299},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1041.943857},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1047.934849},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1071.143149},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1083.128919},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1091.357545},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1085.118667},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1085.877212},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1086.002516},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1102.594831},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1109.286813},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1107.879676},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1109.715311},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1121.787551},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1138.056303},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1126.063283},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1120.894613},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1117.569587},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1131.683942},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1133.216623},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1143.140601},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1148.428947},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1165.627299},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1167.291547},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1173.977243},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1173.679572},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1187.370808},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1201.281205},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1205.269576},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1209.233545},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1208.950575},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1221.726648},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1224.299108},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1230.450809},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1221.981218},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1231.329396},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1234.055357},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1250.305959},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1252.450165},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1268.028811},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1264.028642},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1263.781972},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1265.314581},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1280.548088},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1290.203557},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1291.579644},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1300.092705},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1302.923316},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1307.621453},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1302.023546},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1298.82654},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1290.000176},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1299.291718},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1304.582834},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1306.038642},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1291.771344},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1283.899471}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":63,"firstPeriod":"2021-04-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":63,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1290.203557,"endRent":1283.899471,"change":-0.00488611736171185,"cagr":-0.00488611736171185},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1143.140601,"endRent":1283.899471,"change":0.12313347096312244,"cagr":0.03946640248057065},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1004.230535,"endRent":1283.899471,"change":0.27849077104591324,"cagr":0.05036325284230614}},"maxDrawdown":-0.018141322127727455,"annualizedVolatility":0.025064835481932928,"consecutiveReturnCount":62}}