At ZIP 36116’s current asking-rent level, the main tension is a firm recent increase alongside a price that is only modestly separated from wider benchmarks. Zillow’s ZORI is $1,413 in June 2026, up 7.06% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a quoted rent for a specified available home. In one scope-specific comparison, the City of Montgomery asking-rent context is $1,343, the Montgomery County asking-rent context is $1,364, and the Montgomery, AL metro asking-rent context is $1,429. The ZIP sits above the city and county context but below the metro context; all three are wider-area context, not substitutes for ZIP-level evidence.
Recent direction confirms rather than breaks from the longer growth path. Exact same-month annualized changes were 7.06% over one year, 5.40% over three years, and 6.56% over five years. The latest pace is therefore above both longer comparisons, but these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The history has 64 monthly observations, 63 consecutive monthly returns, and 100% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.59%, and maximum drawdown was a 1.50% decline. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 137 for momentum, 871 for stability, and 89 for balanced performance; lower is higher. Full coverage plus limited observed variability make the historical frame more dependable than a lone month, while still leaving no assurance that any particular listing matches the index.
Bedrooms make the index’s blended composition especially important. Under the FY 2026 local HUD ladder, modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,196 for a studio, $1,209 for one bedroom, $1,413 for two bedrooms, $1,821 for three bedrooms, and $2,133 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder; they are never measured bedroom rents or evidence of a unit’s asking price. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR is $1,040, placing the all-types ZIP asking index 35.9% above that standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; the supplied ladder may be ZIP SAFMR or county-derived. The ladder provides consistent sizing, but does not establish that observed leases or listings follow its steps.
Source universe—not necessarily a contradiction—explains the gap between current asking evidence and the resident survey. In the matched ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,103 median gross rent. ACS measures occupied renter homes, not current listings, and median gross rent includes selected utilities. The ZORI is 28.1% above that survey median. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Applying the 30% required-income screen, which is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule, to the current monthly index produces $56,520 in annual required income, compared with a $55,160 ZCTA median household income. ACS estimates that 4,721 of 9,131 renter households, or 51.7%, devoted at least that share of income to rent; it does not establish burden for any particular home or renter.
The household and stock profile underscores that the index is entering a mixed ownership-and-rental base rather than a single property class. The matched ZCTA contains 45,250 people and 20,284 housing units, with 17,986 occupied and 2,298 vacant, for an 11.3% overall vacancy rate. Its stock includes 12,214 single-family units and 1,443 large-multifamily units. Renter-occupied homes account for 50.8% of occupied units, and 886 vacant units are classified as for rent. Overall vacancy is a housing-stock measure, not a measured current rental-listing availability rate. These aggregate counts describe a survey area and do not reveal unit condition, rent, lease terms, utility treatment, or whether a particular advertised home is still available.
Broader comparisons reinforce why the ZIP needs to be read separately from its surroundings. The City of Montgomery context and Montgomery County context each show lower aggregate median gross rent, lower renter share, higher overall vacancy, and higher renter-burden share than the matched ZCTA, while the Montgomery, AL metro context shows a higher asking-rent index but a lower rent-to-income ratio. These are scope-specific context measures, not alternative ZIP estimates. They support a descriptive contrast between the ZIP’s current asking signal and its broader geography; they do not show that any difference arises from a particular property, tenant group, or market mechanism. Keeping Zillow asking data, ACS resident data, and HUD administrative standards distinct prevents a comparison from being mistaken for a common rent measure.
Timing and unit definition remain the practical limits. The Zillow observation is a current ZIP index, the ACS result is a multiyear survey snapshot of occupied homes, and the HUD ladder is an administrative standard, so their levels cannot be treated as interchangeable prices. ACS margins of error also mean that survey counts and medians carry sampling uncertainty. At the property level, the concrete checks are the advertised rent, bedroom count, property type, availability date, lease length, concession treatment, included utilities, recurring fees, and the actual current status of the listing. Those facts determine whether a specific home can be compared with the index or the modelled ladder. Neither the vacancy total nor the renter-burden share proves availability, price, or affordability for a particular unit; which listed terms remain after those checks?
","findings":[{"body":"At $1,413 in June 2026, the ZIP’s Zillow ZORI rose 7.06% from the same month a year earlier. This index represents typical observed asking rent blended across rental types, not a rent quote for a defined unit. The ZIP is above city and county Zillow context but below metro context, creating a narrow regional spread.","title":"Current asking signal exceeds city and county context"},{"body":"Same-month annualized ZORI growth was positive at each reported horizon, and the latest pace exceeded both longer measures. Complete history coverage, limited monthly-return variability, and a shallow maximum drawdown support a more stable historical frame than a single reading. The momentum, stability, and balanced national discovery ranks are retrospective comparisons among history-eligible ZIPs, not return expectations.","title":"Growth history is positive with limited observed swings"},{"body":"The ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent is $1,103, while ZORI is $1,413. The difference is expected because ACS describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI captures typical observed asking rent. The ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. The 30% income screen is arithmetic, not a leasing qualification decision.","title":"Asking rent and ACS rent describe different universes"},{"body":"Modelled bedroom estimates use the local HUD ladder to scale the ZIP ZORI rather than observe rents by bedroom. The aggregate housing profile combines a substantial single-family stock, a smaller large-multifamily component, and an overall vacancy count. Neither a vacancy category nor the rent-burden share can confirm the availability, price, condition, or affordability of an individual property.","title":"Bedroom ladder and vacancy require unit-level verification"}],"risks":["The ZORI blends rental types and is not a unit-level observation; a listed home can differ in bedroom count, property type, utilities, fees, concessions, condition, lease terms, and availability.","The ACS result covers a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a matched statistical ZCTA, with sampling uncertainty, and the ZCTA boundary does not exactly replicate USPS delivery ZIP geography.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, so the scaled bedroom figures are modelled estimates rather than measured rents, leases, or current asking prices for comparable available homes.","Overall vacancy and renter burden are aggregates; they cannot establish a particular property’s availability or affordability, especially without the listing’s actual rent, inclusions, fees, bedroom count, and lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow reports $1,413 for ZIP 36116 in June 2026, and that is the direct asking-rent signal used in this report. It is a typical observed index across rental types, not a unit quote. City, county, and metro figures are wider-scope context only; they cannot replace ZIP evidence or identify the price of a specific listing.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and incorporates selected utilities, while Zillow ZORI is a current asking-rent index across rental types. The ZCTA is also a statistical approximation rather than an exact USPS delivery ZIP. Different timing, geography, inclusion rules, and populations mean a gap is not an inconsistency.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The bedroom values are generated by scaling the ZIP ZORI using relative positions in the local HUD bedroom ladder. The two-bedroom modelled estimate equals the ZIP index because the two-bedroom HUD amount anchors the scale. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, so every bedroom result remains a modelled estimate, not a measured rent.","q":"How were the bedroom rent estimates produced?"},{"a":"A property-level comparison depends on the listed rent, bedroom count, property type, available date, lease length, utilities, recurring fees, concessions, and listing status. The 30% income figure is simply an annualized arithmetic screen. Aggregate vacancy and renter-burden evidence cannot demonstrate that a specific property is available or affordable.","q":"What property facts determine whether a listing compares with these figures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":979.159006},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1002.753534},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1015.248314},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1028.299022},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1047.590244},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1078.949111},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1099.023725},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1108.223254},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1118.346354},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1136.383914},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1132.744986},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1133.566936},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1143.909782},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1160.43459},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1174.375119},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1173.296446},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1169.709256},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1156.798836},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1157.559085},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1159.513463},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1162.189771},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1158.295512},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1162.348286},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1168.931539},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1180.22844},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1191.080465},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1193.244928},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1206.830263},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1201.040113},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1208.703419},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1201.108649},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1207.652985},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1213.15786},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1214.738698},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1228.885729},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1236.272279},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1245.507395},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1243.819},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1243.915378},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1248.735127},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1258.372674},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1275.878208},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1286.649228},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1293.266678},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1306.409466},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1313.458395},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1321.152718},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1308.351632},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1309.799168},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1305.157743},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1315.255646},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1319.771218},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1327.535404},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1324.365565},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1332.2043},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1336.565253},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1336.596323},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1345.087269},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1346.14171},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1366.385328},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1374.27845},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1393.450767},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1402.791593},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1412.963938}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1319.771218,"endRent":1412.963938,"change":0.07061278404087767,"cagr":0.07061278404087767},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1206.830263,"endRent":1412.963938,"change":0.17080585507325807,"cagr":0.05397011122609552},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1028.299022,"endRent":1412.963938,"change":0.37407885038326927,"cagr":0.06561992170678344}},"maxDrawdown":-0.014966498110898896,"annualizedVolatility":0.025918253254045145,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}