The central tension in the June 2026 evidence is that both asking rent and the resale median rose, while neither source supplies a direct property-level return. Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $1,556, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, 3.8% above the same month a year before. Redfin’s direct ZIP for-sale observation shows a $359,919 median sold price, up 5.7% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sale price produces a 5.19% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The changes can be read together only as concurrent movement in separate asking-rent and resale universes.
History makes the latest rent increase more nuanced than a single snapshot. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI changes annualized at 3.8% over one year, 1.4% over three years and 4.7% over five years through the stated endpoint. Thus, the latest direction accelerates from the slower intermediate path, yet remains beneath the longer five-year pace; it neither establishes a forecast nor an investment case. Annualized variability of monthly returns was 2.9%, maximum drawdown was -2.7%, and coverage was 99.1% across 116 observations. The available transparent national discovery rankings place momentum at 1,213, stability at 1,449 and balanced at 1,277 among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measures mean one current index reading deserves confidence as a well-covered index point, but not as a precise quote for every available home.
These rent figures are not substitutes for the matched Census series. The five-digit label 36526 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, which covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, median gross rent was $1,403. That is 10.9% below ZORI, a difference consistent with their different timing, population and rent concepts rather than a correction to either source. ACS is a survey summary, while ZORI is a current blended asking-rent index; neither establishes a signed rent for a specific property.
Bedroom figures should be treated only as modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder gives modelled monthly estimates of $1,266 for a studio, $1,388 for one bedroom, $1,556 for two bedrooms, $1,957 for three bedrooms and $2,512 for four bedrooms. The underlying FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,345. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation, so this ladder preserves local relative bedroom scaling rather than supplying apartment comparables. The match between the two-bedroom model and ZIP ZORI is a scaling result rather than direct two-bedroom measurement.
The required-income and burden evidence point to a separate affordability screen. At a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic threshold, the current monthly ZORI corresponds to $62,240 in annual income; the ZCTA median household income is $88,750, making the annualized index equal to 21.0% of that income. This is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports 3,718 renter households and 1,312 households in the at-least-threshold gross-rent burden group, a 35.3% share. That survey burden measure describes occupied renter homes, not a conclusion that any individual lease is affordable or burdened.
Stock counts illuminate composition but not availability. The matched ZCTA has 15,035 housing units, of which 14,097 are occupied and 938 are vacant, a calculated 6.2% vacancy rate. It includes 11,966 single-family units and 478 units in large multifamily structures. Those aggregates cannot establish that any specific vacant home is for rent, currently marketable or comparable to a given unit. For wider context, the Daphne city context reports $1,556 rent, while the Baldwin County context and the Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL metro context each report $1,702 asking rent. City, county and metro values are context only, not replacements for the ZIP-level rent index or evidence about a property.
Redfin’s block is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation and describes for-sale activity, not rental transactions. It records 233 homes sold, a median 54 days on market, inventory of 307 homes and 4.0 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.0%; 14.1% sold above list and 22.4% went off market within two weeks. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental comparables or property economics. The prior increase in the resale median confirms an upward sold-price statistic, but the marketing time and sale-to-list pattern challenge any claim that rent acceleration itself implies uniformly rapid, above-list resale conditions. The screening ratio therefore stays a cross-source comparison, not an income measure.
Several limits prevent these aggregates from settling a property question. ZORI has no bedroom-specific lease record; ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes; HUD has an administrative role; and Redfin’s sales are not rental transactions. A property-level file would need the current advertised rent, concessions, utilities included, signed-lease evidence where available, bedroom and bath layout, floor area, condition, listing chronology, price revisions, occupancy status and genuinely comparable closed sales. It also needs the exact delivery ZIP distinguished from the ZCTA and the applicable HUD use case distinguished from a market quote. Does the exact property’s verified terms and comparable sales align with these separate measures, rather than with one headline figure?
","findings":[{"body":"The direct June Zillow measure is a $1,556 blended asking-rent index, not a unit-level lease quote. Its latest annual change exceeds the three-year annualized change but trails the five-year pace, so the record depicts recent acceleration from the intermediate trend rather than an unqualified continuation of the full history. Observed monthly variability and the past drawdown mean one index observation is informative but not exhaustive.","title":"Current asking-rent path"},{"body":"ZCTA survey rent cannot be substituted for current ZORI. ACS summarizes occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI blends typical observed asking rents across rental types. The ZCTA boundary is statistical and does not duplicate delivery ZIP geography. Their gap is therefore a scope and timing comparison, not proof that either figure is the lease rent for a particular home.","title":"Survey rent and asking rent answer different questions"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA reports more single-family units than units in large multifamily structures, along with a calculated vacancy rate based on aggregate housing counts. Those are area-wide stock measures, not evidence that a particular vacant home is rentable, available, or comparable. Daphne city, Baldwin County, and the Daphne-Fairhope-Foley metro are broader context scopes whose rent readings do not replace direct ZIP ZORI.","title":"Stock aggregates are not vacancy listings"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale block confirms a sold-price increase while documenting time on market, inventory, supply and sale-to-list signals. The combination presents a useful tension: an upturn in the median resale statistic does not by itself indicate uniformly rapid or above-list sales. Since these are for-sale observations rather than rental transactions, they cannot validate the ZORI as a property-level income figure.","title":"Resale gains coexist with measured marketing friction"}],"risks":["ZORI reflects a blended asking-rent index rather than a signed lease, so mix changes across rental types can move the index without identifying the rent, concessions, utilities, or condition for an individual unit.","The ACS figures are estimates for the matched ZCTA’s occupied renter homes across a five-year survey period; sampling uncertainty, utility inclusion, and the ZCTA-to-delivery-ZIP distinction limit direct comparison with current listings.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Scaling ZORI by its ladder creates modelled estimates only, and the resulting bedroom figures may not represent available rents for any building or lease term.","Redfin’s rolling resale block reports for-sale transactions and listing-market behavior. Its annualized-rent-to-price calculation omits operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy experience, and unit matching, so it cannot describe property income or returns."],"qa":[{"a":"The stated Zillow measure is a ZIP-level ZORI of $1,556 for June 2026. It is a typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types, so it provides a current market signal. It does not state the advertised rent, lease rent, utilities, concessions, size, or condition for a specific dwelling.","q":"What is the current rent signal in this ZIP?"},{"a":"ACS’s $1,403 median gross rent comes from the matched ZCTA’s 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow’s current ZORI has a different population, timing, and rent concept. Also, a ZCTA is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP, so neither source substitutes for the other.","q":"Why does the ACS rent differ from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom values are modelled estimates. They scale the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder, which preserves a local relative pattern around the index. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not asking-rent data; the outputs are never measured bedroom rents or direct apartment comparables.","q":"How were the bedroom values created?"},{"a":"Redfin adds a direct rolling-three-month ZIP view of for-sale and resale activity: sold-price movement, transaction count, marketing time, inventory, supply and sale-to-list behavior. It does not add rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by the resale median price is only a cross-source screening ratio, and cannot be read as cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What does the Redfin block add to the rental evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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