For ZIP 37064 in Franklin, Tennessee, Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $2,417 per month. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types, rather than a count of signed leases or a quote for a particular home. The matched Census ZCTA’s 2024 five-year ACS reports a $1,916 median gross rent, a 26.1% gap below the asking-rent index; it is a survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The recent history shows an upward path but a slower near-term pace than its longest comparison: ZORI rose 3.03% over the exact same month in one year, 2.13% annualized across three years, and 4.37% annualized across five years through the stated endpoint. Thus the latest direction confirms, rather than breaks from, the longer upward path, while trailing the five-year growth rate. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.06%, and the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 4.60%. With complete 100% history coverage, national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,191 for momentum, 1,731 for stability, and 1,456 balanced; lower rank is higher. These transparent measurements are backward-looking, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Variation and the prior decline mean a single current ZORI snapshot deserves less confidence than the full history alongside it.
Bedroom framing should not be mistaken for measured unit rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the local HUD ladder was used only to scale the ZIP ZORI. That produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $2,102 for a studio, $2,203 for one bedroom, $2,417 for two, $3,092 for three, and $3,766 for four bedrooms. These figures preserve the local HUD size relationship, but are modelled estimates—not observed bedroom rents—and do not establish the rent, utilities, condition, availability, or concessions for any listed property. The direct ZORI remains the blended rental-type benchmark rather than a bedroom-specific observation.
At a 30% rent-to-income screen, paying the $2,417 monthly index for a full year arithmetically corresponds to $96,680 in annual income. This is an arithmetic screen, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA median household income is $127,771, and the annualized asking-rent-to-income ratio is 22.7%. Separately, 50.7% of renter households reported spending at least the screen level on rent in the ACS burden measure. That survey result describes an aggregate of occupied renter homes, not the circumstances of a particular household or unit.
Stock data point to an owner-heavy ZCTA while leaving availability unresolved. The ACS ZCTA records 25,718 housing units, a 5.3% vacancy rate, and renters in 22.9% of occupied homes. Its stock has far more single-family units than large multifamily units, a composition statement rather than a claim about tenure or rental condition. Within the vacancy classifications, 386 units are vacant for rent, while for-sale and seasonal categories are separately reported. A vacant-for-rent count is not evidence that a specific unit can be leased, at the index level, or on a reader’s desired date; it must not be treated as proof of property-level availability.
For wider context only, the citywide Franklin context rent is $2,132.10 per month, the countywide Williamson County context rent is $2,177, and the metro-wide Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN context rent is $1,810; each has a broader geographic scope than the ZIP-level asking-rent index. The city, county, and metro figures are comparison context, not substitutes for the ZIP measurement or evidence about a particular property. The metro’s apartment-vacancy measure and the ZIP’s all-housing vacancy measure also use different universes, so they should not be read as a direct market-tightness comparison. The ZIP’s current index sits above all named context rents, but scope and source differences prevent treating the gaps as a quality or value judgment.
Several limits govern interpretation. ZORI is an index, ACS estimates are survey results with margins of error, and HUD standards are administrative benchmarks; none independently establishes a unit’s market ask. Before using these figures for a real listing, verify the advertised rent and lease term, bedroom count, included utilities, mandatory fees, concessions, availability date, and the property’s ZIP assignment. Check whether the unit’s rent is presented before or after discounts and whether its physical attributes fit the assumed bedroom ladder. Those property-level checks are the practical test of whether the aggregate measures answer the relevant question: what is actually offered on the terms needed?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow reports a June 2026 ZORI of $2,417 for 37064, while the matched ACS ZCTA median gross rent is $1,916. The $501 difference is directly recomputable and equals 26.1% of the ACS figure. It is not a contradiction: Zillow tracks a blended typical observed asking-rent index, whereas ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The measures answer different rental questions.","title":"Asking index exceeds occupied-home rent survey"},{"body":"Same-month rent change is positive at 3.03% over one year, 2.13% annualized over three years, and 4.37% annualized over five years. The immediate direction remains aligned with the longer path, although it is below the five-year pace. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.06% and a 4.60% maximum drawdown justify reading the index as a time series, not a single definitive point.","title":"Positive history with measurable variation"},{"body":"Modelled bedroom estimates run from $2,102 for a studio to $3,766 for four bedrooms, with the two-bedroom model at $2,417. They are generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. Because HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, these are size-scaled estimates, not measured rents for available apartments or houses.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"The ZCTA is owner-heavy: renters occupy 22.9% of occupied homes, and 50.7% of renter households meet the ACS 30%-or-more burden measure. Reported vacancy is 5.3%, including 386 units vacant for rent. Those aggregates describe tenure, burden, and classifications; they do not show that any particular unit is affordable, vacant on a needed date, or offered at the ZORI level.","title":"Aggregate burden and vacancy do not identify a listing"}],"risks":["Zillow, ACS, and HUD have distinct time periods, populations, and rent concepts. Comparing their dollar levels without preserving those differences can overstate or understate the gap relevant to a specific listing.","The bedroom ladder is generated from an administrative HUD relationship, so it can diverge from actual asks by unit type, utilities, condition, location within the ZIP, lease terms, and concessions.","ACS estimates, including income, tenure, burden, and vacancy, are aggregate five-year survey results. Margins of error and occupied-home scope mean they cannot identify the circumstances, affordability, or availability of an individual renter or unit.","Historical growth, volatility, drawdown, and discovery ranks describe the observed series through its endpoint. They neither forecast rent movement nor establish investment performance, and a current index value may not match a live advertised price."],"qa":[{"a":"These are not interchangeable universes. The June 2026 Zillow ZORI measures a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types in the ZIP. The ACS ZCTA measure is a 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference informs benchmarking, but cannot establish what a particular listing should charge or lease for.","q":"Why does the asking-rent index exceed the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling direct ZORI according to the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative standard and not asking rent. The resulting ladder is useful for size-sensitive framing, but it does not observe leases, listings, utilities, property condition, or concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual observed rents?"},{"a":"The required-income figure divides annualized ZORI by 30%, so it is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS rent-burden share is an aggregate survey result for occupied renter households. Neither metric indicates whether one household can qualify, nor does either prove that a particular property is affordable.","q":"How should the required-income figure and burden statistic be used?"},{"a":"No. Complete history coverage supports the reported backward-looking measurements, but growth, volatility, and drawdown do not forecast future rents or provide an investment recommendation. Likewise, a ZCTA vacancy count includes categories and is not proof of a lease-ready unit. Verify listing-specific rent, term, fees, utilities, and availability directly.","q":"Can the history and vacancy data identify a currently available unit or predict future rents?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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