The immediate decision question for this ZIP is not whether a single market statistic describes a unit, but how a current ZIP benchmark should be used alongside bedroom, household, and inventory evidence. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $1,734 per month, up 2.3% year over year. ZORI is Zillow’s ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, rather than a quote for a specified home. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Its decision value is a timely market reference, while the separate evidence sets below frame size, household cost exposure, and unit-search uncertainty.
Bedroom-specific figures answer a narrower sizing question, but they do not supply measured ZIP rents. The FY 2026 local HUD ladder ranges from $1,570 for a studio to $2,800 for a four-bedroom home. Scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,512, $1,580, $1,734, $2,216, and $2,697, respectively, from studios through four-bedroom configurations. The middle estimate matches the overall index by construction, not through a separate observation. The sequence carries HUD’s relative bedroom pattern into an overall ZIP benchmark and cannot describe a bedroom-specific distribution of listings. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; they are a sizing framework, not a record of available units, signed leases, or landlord quotes.
The matched ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey supplies a different historical lens: median gross rent is $1,658, with a ±$68 margin of error, among occupied renter homes and including selected utilities. The current ZORI is 4.6% above that survey median, but this contrast is not a growth measure or a unit-level spread because population, rent concept, and timing differ. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. As a benchmark contrast only, ZORI is 3.7% below the HUD two-bedroom standard of $1,800. Neither HUD nor ACS should be merged into Zillow’s index or treated as verification of any listing price.
Household context shows both an income reference and an observed burden measure, with important boundaries. In the ACS ZCTA, median household income is $93,665 with a ±$5,919 margin of error; it is a household-wide statistic, not a renter-income or applicant-income figure. At the structural 30% threshold, the arithmetic annual income screen for the current ZORI is $69,360. That calculation is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Renters account for 36.3% of occupied housing units in the ZCTA. ACS estimates that 5,338 renter households, or 50.7% of its renter total, reported rent burdens at or above that threshold, with a ±918 margin of error for the burden count. This observed burden describes a surveyed population and cannot prove affordability or burden for a particular unit.
Housing stock helps distinguish a broad inventory count from a rental listing count. In the ACS ZCTA, there are 30,651 housing units and 1,683 vacancies, producing a 5.5% vacancy rate. Of the vacant units, 486 are classified for rent, 242 for sale, and 47 for seasonal use. The stock also includes 23,124 single-family units and 2,620 units in large multifamily structures, a mix that does not identify the rental status, price, or condition of any building. The for-rent vacancy count identifies an aggregate category, but it does not show which homes are marketed now, what bedroom sizes they have, or whether their terms align with either ZORI or HUD.
Wider comparisons keep the ZIP reading in geographic context without replacing it. At the City of Murfreesboro scope, contextual rent is $1,687; at the Rutherford County scope, contextual rent is $1,724; and at the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro scope, contextual rent is $1,810. The ZIP benchmark is higher than the city and county context figures but lower than the metro context figure. These are aggregate context values, not evidence that a particular ZIP property should be priced at the city, county, or metro reading. The differing named scopes and source definitions prevent city, county, and metro context from replacing either the ZIP index or the ZCTA survey.
The limits are operational: ZORI is an index, ACS is a survey with margins of error, HUD is an administrative standard, and the ZCTA boundary does not replicate USPS delivery geography. No supplied series determines an individual lease price, vacancy status, utility package, or applicant outcome. For a property-level decision, verify the current quoted rent, exact address and reporting geography, bedroom count, property type, utility inclusions, lease term, recurring mandatory charges, deposits, concessions, and availability date. Confirm that the advertised price applies to the exact unit rather than a starting price, and distinguish an asking amount from total recurring cost. These checks keep the modelled ladder, the burden statistic, and the vacancy categories in their proper aggregate roles.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI gives the ZIP’s current typical observed asking-rent reference. Because it blends rental types, it cannot specify a property’s bedroom count, condition, utility treatment, lease structure, or availability. The matched ZCTA label supports alignment with ACS tabulations, but it remains a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Use the figure as a market reference, not a lease offer.","title":"Current benchmark is not a unit quote"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom schedule is constructed by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. It is a modelled set of monthly estimates, not a survey or record of measured bedroom rents. The displayed pattern is most useful for testing whether a prospective unit’s stated size fits the model’s relative ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR supplies an administrative standard and does not establish an asking rent.","title":"Bedroom schedule is modelled"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA estimates show renters represent 36.3% of occupied homes and that 50.7% of renter households reported rent burdens at or above the stated threshold. This describes survey respondents across occupied renter homes, not the financial position of a current applicant or an attribute of a particular listing. The annual income screen uses ZORI arithmetically and is not a qualification standard.","title":"Burden is a population signal"},{"body":"ACS identifies 486 vacant units as for rent within a larger vacant inventory, but that classification does not list properties or confirm availability. The stock mix and vacancy rate remain aggregate characteristics of the matched ZCTA. A user still needs property-specific price, size, utility, term, charge, and availability information before treating any market measure as relevant to an actual listing.","title":"Vacancy composition needs unit verification"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR differ in timing, population, rent definition, and purpose. Treating them as interchangeable would create false precision around any individual advertised unit.","ACS estimates are drawn from the matched ZCTA and include reported margins of error. They reflect a five-year survey period while the Zillow index is dated later, so timing and sampling uncertainty remain material.","A vacant-for-rent classification is not evidence that a particular property is currently available, affordable, or accepting applicants. It also does not disclose condition, lease terms, utilities, or mandatory charges.","City, county, and metro figures are wider context values, not ZIP measurements. They can frame scale, but cannot verify a ZIP-level bedroom price, a particular property’s vacancy, or its lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"The ZIP label used here is both Zillow’s market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. That alignment enables geographic comparison within the packet, but a ZCTA is a statistical tabulation area. It does not reproduce USPS delivery-ZIP boundaries or establish that every addressed property belongs to the same reporting geography.","q":"What does the ZIP label match, and what does it not match?"},{"a":"Zillow provides an overall ZIP ZORI rather than observed bedroom-specific rents in this packet. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are obtained by applying the relative local HUD bedroom ladder to that overall index. They are therefore modelled monthly estimates. They do not measure signed leases, advertised units, or actual rents for a unit with a given bedroom count.","q":"Why are the bedroom figures called modelled estimates?"},{"a":"It can be contrasted only if definitions stay visible. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. None is interchangeable, so a gap does not identify an individual unit’s price, total monthly cost, or lease terms.","q":"Can Zillow asking rent be compared with ACS gross rent and HUD standards?"},{"a":"Verify the current quoted rent, unit address and its reporting geography, bedroom count, property type, utility inclusions, lease term, recurring mandatory charges, deposits, concessions, and availability date. Confirm whether the advertised price applies to the exact unit rather than a starting rate. These checks are necessary because the supplied sources are aggregate benchmarks and cannot establish property-level vacancy, total move-in cost, or applicant outcome.","q":"What should be checked for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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