Smyrna’s central tension is a current asking-rent benchmark that has barely moved lately even though the longer record is materially stronger. The five-digit label 37167 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,695 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Through that same month, its exact same-month change was 1.0% over one year, 0.32% annualized over three years, and 3.82% annualized over five years. The one-year direction therefore broadly confirms the subdued three-year path but breaks from the faster five-year pace. The history is stated as having 100% coverage through its observed endpoint.
The limited amplitude of the observed history changes how much weight to put on a single current index reading. Annualized variability of monthly returns was 3.06%, and the largest historical peak-to-trough drawdown was -2.73%. Those backward-looking measurements indicate less index movement than a more erratic series would, but they do not convert a ZIP benchmark into a quote for any home. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,124 for momentum, 1,718 for stability, and 2,284 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These ranks and historical changes are descriptive only: they are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations, and recent slowing warrants restraint in interpreting the current snapshot.
Wider geography places the ZIP level below two larger benchmarks without making those benchmarks substitutes for it. The Smyrna city-context rent is $1,693, the Rutherford County county-context rent is $1,724, and the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro-context rent is $1,810. Thus the ZIP index is effectively aligned with the named city context and below the named county and metro contexts. Each is wider context only, with its own geography and composition rather than evidence about a listing inside the ZIP. The comparison is useful as a scale check, while the direct ZIP ZORI remains the asking-rent index relevant to this market identifier.
The gap with survey rent is a source-universe difference, not a contradiction. In the matching Census ZCTA, ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,449, with a reported margin of error of $69. That is 17.0% below ZORI, but ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. By contrast, the FY2026 local HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,640; ZORI is 3.4% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Neither the ACS median nor HUD standard should be relabelled as a current advertised rent, and neither is interchangeable with Zillow’s blended asking-rent index.
The bedroom ladder is best used as a consistent modelling device rather than a measurement of separate unit markets. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,478 for a studio, $1,550 for one bedroom, $1,695 for two bedrooms, $2,170 for three bedrooms, and $2,646 for four bedrooms. These figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the two-bedroom result matches the all-type ZIP index because of the scaling method, not because every observed two-bedroom asking rent equals that amount. The ladder shows relative bedroom sizing under the local HUD structure, while a property’s actual rent can differ.
The affordability screen is also aggregate arithmetic rather than a tenant test. At the current monthly ZORI, the annual income needed for rent to equal 30% is $67,800. Against the ZCTA’s $84,351 median household income, the index-to-income comparison is 24.1%. Neither value describes any particular renter’s income, utilities, household size, or qualification. ACS nonetheless records 8,823 renter-occupied households, of which 4,217—or 47.8%—reported gross-rent burdens of 30% or more. That burden statistic concerns surveyed occupied renter homes, not current listings, and it cannot prove that a particular unit is burdensome. The required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
Stock and vacancy data add scope, not an availability verdict. The ZCTA has 24,144 housing units, including 23,225 occupied and 919 vacant units, for a 3.8% overall vacancy rate; 330 vacant units are classified for rent. Its recorded stock includes 17,567 single-family units and 1,474 units in the large-multifamily category. A vacancy category does not show that any given apartment is available, establish its asking price, or explain the rent trend. Concrete property-level checks are the advertised monthly rent, bedroom count, availability date, lease term, included and tenant-paid utilities, deposits and recurring fees, plus whether any HUD standard is relevant to the use at hand. Those checks preserve the distinction between broad ZIP evidence and the actual unit.
","findings":[{"body":"At June 2026, the ZIP-level ZORI is $1,695. The exact same-month one-year change is 1.0%, versus annualized gains of 0.32% over three years and 3.82% over five years. That makes the recent direction consistent with the subdued medium-term period but slower than the full five-year record. These are backward-looking index measurements, not a forecast or a property-level rent quote.","title":"Recent movement has slowed relative to the five-year path"},{"body":"ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index, while the ACS median is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The matching ZCTA’s median gross rent is $1,449, below the $1,695 ZORI. HUD’s two-bedroom standard is administrative rather than observed asking rent. The three series answer different questions and should not be substituted for one another in a unit comparison.","title":"The rent benchmarks describe different universes"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They preserve a relative bedroom pattern, not observed asking-rent distributions. The two-bedroom model equals the all-type index through construction, so it does not verify a prevailing two-bedroom lease price. Verify the actual bedroom count, listed rent, utilities, fees, availability date, and lease terms at the property level.","title":"Bedroom figures are a modelled ladder, not observed rents"},{"body":"ACS reports a gross-rent burden share among occupied renter households, while the ZCTA vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count describe area-level housing status. Neither series identifies a particular dwelling, applicant, or lease. The income threshold based on thirty percent of ZORI is a mechanical benchmark. It does not account for a household’s actual income, other expenses, utility arrangement, or the unit’s complete recurring charge.","title":"Burden and vacancy are aggregate indicators"}],"risks":["Zillow’s index blends rental types at ZIP scope, so it cannot establish the rent, condition, bedroom mix, included utilities, fees, lease term, or availability of a particular dwelling.","The Census measure comes from the matched statistical ZCTA and a five-year survey of occupied renter homes. Sampling uncertainty, different timing, and selected-utility treatment limit direct comparison with current asking-rent index data.","HUD standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, while the ZIP bedroom figures are modelled from the HUD ladder and ZORI. Neither is a measured bedroom rent or proof of an advertised lease amount.","Area vacancy and rent-burden measures do not identify any unit’s availability, price, or household circumstances. They therefore cannot demonstrate that a particular property is vacant, affordable, or burdensome."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI and ACS describe different universes. June 2026 ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS 2024 is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, measures median gross rent, and includes selected utilities. Different timing, population coverage, and rent concepts can yield different levels without either source being invalid.","q":"Why is ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The one-year exact same-month increase was 1.0%, which follows the much slower 0.32% annualized three-year gain and trails the 3.82% annualized five-year gain. Accordingly, the near-term direction confirms the subdued medium-term record but departs from the stronger full-period pace. With 100% reported coverage, this is an observed-series measure through June 2026, not a projection.","q":"How should the one-year history change be read?"},{"a":"The estimates allocate the all-type ZIP ZORI across studio through four-bedroom categories using the local HUD ladder. They are modelled monthly estimates; they do not observe leases, listings, or achieved rents separately by bedroom count. The two-bedroom estimate equals ZORI due to the scaling construction. A specific unit can therefore be priced differently, even when its bedroom count matches a ladder category.","q":"What does the bedroom ladder measure?"},{"a":"No. The vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count are ZCTA aggregates, while rent burden is an ACS statistic for occupied renter households. The income screen mechanically compares the ZIP index with a thirty-percent threshold. To evaluate one unit, confirm its advertised rent, bedroom count, availability date, lease terms, utility responsibility, deposits, and recurring fees. These packet-level measures do not supply those facts.","q":"Can the data establish a specific unit’s price, availability, or affordability?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1181.94185},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1177.875732},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1179.186214},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1182.097699},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1188.151776},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1205.662289},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1213.184484},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1210.266645},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1201.011402},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1196.042413},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1190.736892},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1190.026945},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1196.482529},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1207.314419},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1217.838363},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1229.183996},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1233.549422},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1228.620876},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1234.632011},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1251.346758},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1275.31037},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1279.572441},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1295.038617},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1278.784884},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1276.808841},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1271.237743},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1283.37},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1291.39247},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1310.076894},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1315.497045},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1309.89616},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1322.864254},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1327.447895},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1350.234416},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1354.443371},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1380.995674},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1404.878023},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1430.683835},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1460.644836},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1479.547741},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1494.460671},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1509.291779},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1563.904822},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1577.709738},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1590.482844},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1568.122234},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1583.194782},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1578.493857},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1597.830323},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1611.426515},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1620.681749},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1632.139687},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1630.0517},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1651.921724},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1627.076853},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1623.060759},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1611.227283},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1645.658143},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1656.944248},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1687.600038},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1678.316597},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1699.207804},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1690.598035},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1686.370234},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1676.916349},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1675.883445},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1693.169685},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1709.901139},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1712.092377},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1694.717572},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1685.735998},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1682.142916},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1686.452844},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1673.120518},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1667.600399},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1665.296084},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1667.07243},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1680.606774},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1675.483478},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1681.47068},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1683.804684},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1701.143926},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1699.274892},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1689.946573},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1677.751354},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1678.161361},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1686.882046},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1690.874728},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1696.86815},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1685.193318},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1686.889036},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1677.71327},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1679.458062},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1671.044362},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1676.829845},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1682.901815},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1694.503728}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":97,"firstPeriod":"2018-06-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":97,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1677.751354,"endRent":1694.503728,"change":0.009985015932223673,"cagr":0.009985015932223673},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1678.316597,"endRent":1694.503728,"change":0.009644861421816753,"cagr":0.003204672908236228},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1404.878023,"endRent":1694.503728,"change":0.2061571896338219,"cagr":0.0381994201488014}},"maxDrawdown":-0.027332808456281055,"annualizedVolatility":0.03055705499184257,"consecutiveReturnCount":96}}