Rent and resale are moving in opposite directions in this ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI was $2,028 per month, down 2.3% from a year earlier. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $524,881, up 3.1% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median sold price is 4.6%, a cross-source screening ratio only. It combines a broad asking-rent index with a resale median and does not describe a transaction, an individual property’s economics, or a property-level outcome. The price increase confirms firmer resale pricing over the reported comparison period, while rent cooling challenges any simple read-through from sales to asking rents.
Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not interchangeable with the matched Census measure. Current ZORI is 11.0% above the $1,828 ACS median gross rent. That ACS figure comes from the ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI reflects asking-rent conditions rather than occupied-household payments. The five-digit label 37174 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. These source, timing, occupancy, and utility differences limit direct rent-level comparisons.
Exact same-month ZORI history through the stated endpoint shows a -2.31% annualized change over one year, -0.82% over three years, and 2.40% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the shorter three-year cooling path but breaks from the positive five-year path. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.38%, maximum drawdown was -4.91%, and coverage was 99.3%, indicating a nearly complete historical record while still documenting meaningful downward movement. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,783 for momentum, 508 for stability, and 2,152 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The low reported variability and high coverage give more confidence in the consistency of the index record than in any single current rent snapshot as a universal property benchmark.
The resale observation provides direct ZIP-level liquidity signals, but only for for-sale transactions. Redfin reported 300 homes sold, a median marketing time of 58 days, and inventory of 469 homes, up 10.3% year over year. Months of supply stood at 4.7. The average sale-to-list relationship was 98.95%, while 15.1% of sales closed above list price. These are direct rolling-three-month resale observations, not rental transactions, lease comparables, or evidence of rental-property operations. Together with the rising sale-price measure, they challenge rather than confirm the cooling rent-history signal; inventory and sale signals do not resolve that cross-universe tension.
Bedroom planning requires a separate model rather than a relabeling of the all-types ZORI. Modelled monthly ZIP estimates, produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, are $1,741 for a studio, $1,791 for a one-bedroom, $2,028 for a two-bedroom, $2,582 for a three-bedroom, and $3,037 for a four-bedroom. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is 98.9% of the local HUD two-bedroom standard of $2,050 because the ZIP index is used as the scaling anchor. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they cannot establish what a currently advertised unit commands.
The required-income screen is arithmetic: applying a 30% rent-to-income threshold to the current ZORI produces required annual income of $81,120. Relative to the ZCTA median household income of $105,181, the reported asking-rent-to-income screen is 23.1%. This is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule; household income and a broad ZIP rent index do not identify an individual renter’s circumstances. ACS nevertheless reports that 2,067 of 5,061 occupied renter homes, or 40.8%, had gross-rent burdens at or above the threshold. That burden measure remains a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes, includes its own survey uncertainty, and cannot prove the burden associated with a particular available unit.
The ACS ZCTA housing base contains 20,269 housing units, with a 3.7% overall vacancy rate and a 25.9% renter share. Its structure mix is weighted toward single-family units rather than large multifamily buildings. Those aggregate stock and vacancy figures are not a count of currently rentable listings or evidence that a specific address is available. For wider context, Spring Hill city’s context rent is $2,030, Maury County’s context rent is $1,688, and the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro context rent is $1,810; these are city, county, and metro values, respectively, rather than ZIP observations. The ZIP index is near the city context level and above the county and metro context values, but wider geographies should not replace the ZIP reading.
Source limits matter most where the figures appear to align. ZORI does not identify an available dwelling, its lease duration, its included utilities, or its physical condition; ACS does not provide current listing terms; HUD does not provide asking rents; and Redfin does not provide rental transactions. Concrete property-level checks are to match the advertised rent with the actual bedroom count, lease term, included utilities, condition, and current availability; to compare that bedroom count only with the modelled ladder rather than treating the ladder as a quote; and to keep recent resale evidence separate from rental evidence. Does the specific listing’s current asking rent and lease structure actually match the separate index and modelled scenario being used?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow reported a $2,028 ZIP asking-rent index after a 2.31% same-month annual decline, while Redfin reported a $524,881 median sold price after a 3.06% gain. These are separate rental and resale evidence universes. Their divergence is the central tension: it documents different reported market measures, not a conclusion about an individual property or a future market path.","title":"Rent cooling and resale appreciation diverge"},{"body":"Exact same-month ZORI history was negative over one and three years but positive over five years. Annualized monthly-return variability, maximum drawdown, and nearly complete coverage describe a well-observed but cooling series. National discovery ranks place stability ahead of momentum. These backward-looking figures contextualize the current index reading but do not predict the next rent observation.","title":"History favors stability of observation over momentum"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates derived by scaling current ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent dataset. The resulting figures can organize a broad bedroom scenario, but they are not measured bedroom rents, listing quotes, lease terms, or evidence of unit availability.","title":"Bedroom figures are HUD-scaled models"},{"body":"The 30% required-income calculation and ACS burden share provide separate affordability screens: one uses the current asking-rent index, while the other surveys occupied renter homes with selected utilities included in gross rent. Housing-unit, renter-share, and vacancy figures are also aggregate ZCTA measures. None identifies the payment burden, vacancy, condition, or availability of a particular rental unit.","title":"Aggregate affordability and stock indicators require caution"}],"risks":["ZORI is blended across rental types and does not identify lease terms, utility treatment, condition, concessions, or availability for a given unit. Treating the ZIP index as an actual listing quote creates a source mismatch.","The HUD-scaled bedroom figures are modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. A unit can differ from the model because the ladder is an administrative standard and the model does not contain listing-specific characteristics.","ACS gross rent, income, burden, tenure, and vacancy figures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA. Their survey scope and margins of error prevent them from establishing conditions for a particular household or address.","Redfin’s direct ZIP observation concerns completed for-sale activity within a rolling three-month window. Median sold price, supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list results cannot serve as rental transactions or property-level rental economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The reported gap therefore does not establish that a current listing should rent at the ACS median or at ZORI.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the broad ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a record of asking rents. The estimates should remain distinct from advertised rents, executed leases, and unit-specific comparables.","q":"Do the bedroom estimates represent observed studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit rents?"},{"a":"The same-month series indicates recent cooling over one and three years despite a positive five-year annualized path. High coverage and relatively contained monthly-return variability support confidence that the history is consistently observed, while the maximum drawdown shows that movement has occurred. It is historical context only and does not predict subsequent rent changes.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current reading?"},{"a":"Use it as direct evidence about the ZIP’s rolling-three-month for-sale market: median sold price, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio. It should not be merged with rental transactions, operating costs, financing assumptions, or unit-level economics.","q":"How should the Redfin resale information be used alongside rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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