At first glance, ZIP 38111 presents a split screen: its asking-rent record is still positive, while the separately collected direct resale evidence is softer. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for June 2026 is $1,283 per month, up 1.54% in the exact same-month one-year comparison. This ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it summarizes the current ZIP asking market rather than a lease quote, an all-unit average, or a particular property. The key tension is not a forecast: positive asking-rent movement must be read beside the for-sale evidence, source differences, and household screens below.
Zillow’s historical series puts the current move in a stable-growth category, but it is a backward-looking measurement rather than a forecast or investment recommendation. The exact same-month annualized change is 3.26% over three years and 4.77% over five years; the one-year rate cited above is lower. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer path’s upward direction while breaking from its faster multi-year pace. Coverage is 100% across 138 observations. Measured as annualized monthly-return variability, the series registers 2.35%, supporting somewhat more confidence in a single current snapshot than a highly erratic series would. The deepest observed peak-to-trough decline, its maximum drawdown, reached 2.42%, however, so stability does not erase the possibility that the snapshot can recede. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,339 for momentum and 462 for stability, where lower is higher.
Bedroom framing should not turn a HUD standard into listing evidence. The local ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,066 for a studio, $1,159 for one bedroom, $1,283 for two bedrooms, $1,697 for three bedrooms, and $1,976 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they scale ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,240. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so the ladder provides a consistent scaling device, not a set of observed asking-rent comparables.
The ACS universe answers a different question. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes reports median gross rent of $1,155 and includes selected utilities. That survey median is 11.1% below the Zillow asking-rent index; the gap is a source and population difference, not proof that a current listing is priced above a typical lease. ACS reports median household income of $52,589. At 30% of gross income, simple arithmetic translates the current monthly index into required annual income of $51,320 and a ZIP asking-rent-to-income screen of 29.3%. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Among surveyed occupied renter households, 5,273 of 9,756, or 54.0%, recorded burden at or above that threshold; it does not establish burden for a particular unit or household.
The same ACS ZCTA describes the stock behind those survey measures. It counted 19,695 housing units, including 2,209 vacant units, for an 11.2% vacancy rate; the renter share of occupied units was 55.8%. The structure mix includes 13,593 single-family units and 3,114 large multifamily units, with other structure types outside those two counts. These are five-year survey-area counts, not a real-time listing inventory. In particular, a vacancy classification cannot establish that any specific apartment or house is currently available, priced at the index, or usable under a given lease.
Relative to broader asking-rent context, this ZIP is essentially aligned with the city figure and below the county and metro figures. For wider context only, the Memphis city Zillow-rent context is $1,280, the Shelby County Zillow-rent context is $1,389, and the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro Zillow-rent context is $1,435. These named city, county, and metro scopes are not substitutes for the ZIP index: their geographic coverage and rental mix are wider. They provide a position check only, rather than evidence that conditions, transactions, costs, or an individual property are equivalent across the three geographies.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026 is a for-sale market record, not rental transaction data. The median sold price was $194,456, down 7.0% year over year; 131 homes sold and median marketing time was 36 days. Active listings rose and inventory increased 21.8%, while months of supply measured 5.1. Sale-to-list signals were below parity: the average sale-to-list ratio was 96.1%, and 10.3% of sales were above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price is 7.9%, only a cross-source screening ratio that cannot establish property economics. The price decline and broader for-sale supply challenge a simple reading of the still-rising but slower rent history; they confirm neither rental demand nor a link between the two markets.
Each universe has timing and aggregation limits. ZORI blends rental types; ACS surveys occupied renter homes and has sampling uncertainty; HUD establishes an administrative standard; and Redfin tracks resale activity. Neither the census vacancy count nor the resale data validates a live rental offering. A property-level review needs the advertised rent, availability date, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, recurring fees, condition, and housing type, alongside applicable list-price and sold-comparable details. Those checks test whether a specific property resembles any ZIP-level screen without treating the screens as property facts. Does the actual home’s rent, terms, condition, and directly relevant sale evidence align with these separate ZIP-level measurements?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP index was $1,283, and the one-year rise remained positive. The three-year and five-year annualized same-month changes were faster, so the most recent reading continues the upward path but at a slower pace. Full coverage and relatively limited monthly dispersion make the history useful for context, but the documented drawdown means a single current observation still deserves measured confidence. The history metrics do not provide a forecast.","title":"Asking rents rose, but at a slower pace"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent should not be substituted for ZORI. It is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and differs from the current asking-rent index. The 30% income test simply annualizes the ZIP asking index and divides by the selected share of income. It does not identify a qualifying applicant, determine an individual household’s budget, or explain burden in a specific rental.","title":"Survey affordability is not a listing affordability test"},{"body":"ACS ZCTA stock and vacancy figures identify a survey-area composition, not currently marketable inventory. The renter majority and the presence of both single-family and larger multifamily stock indicate that a blended ZIP asking-rent index crosses structures. A vacant-for-rent count neither confirms an address is open nor establishes its rent, condition, utility terms, or lease eligibility. Property-level facts remain necessary before comparing a home with the ZIP screen.","title":"Stock measures set context, not current availability"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale series supplies the report’s principal counterweight: median resale price declined while listed-supply indicators increased, even as Zillow’s current asking-rent reading stayed above the prior year. Homes sold, marketing time, supply and sale-to-list signals describe the for-sale market only. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is useful solely for cross-source screening; it does not convert resale observations into rental transactions or property-specific economics.","title":"Resale evidence is the principal counterweight"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index may not match an available home’s bedroom count, utility responsibility, lease length, condition, concessions, or fee structure, so it cannot function as a unit quote.","ACS income, burden, gross-rent, and vacancy estimates summarize respondents within a multiyear ZCTA survey. Sampling uncertainty and aggregation prevent them from establishing affordability, occupancy, or vacancy for a particular household or address.","HUD FMR/SAFMR gives a standardized bedroom ladder, not observed asking rents. Scaling ZORI with that ladder can guide relative estimates but cannot replace bedroom-specific rental listings.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation can show ZIP for-sale liquidity and pricing signals, but it lacks rental transaction terms and property costs. The rent-to-price screen therefore cannot support property-level economic conclusions."],"qa":[{"a":"The shared label links two different source systems, not two identical geographies. Zillow uses it as a ZIP rental-market identifier, while Census reports the matched ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical tabulation area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so boundary, population, and delivery coverage can differ. The report retains each source’s own universe rather than merging them.","q":"Why can ZIP 38111 and the Census geography be used together without being identical?"},{"a":"The estimates start with ZIP-level ZORI and scale it using each local HUD bedroom standard relative to the local two-bedroom standard. The results retain the index’s blended-rental nature and only express the HUD ladder’s relative bedroom pattern. They are therefore modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured rents from bedroom-specific rental listings or completed leases.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates derived?"},{"a":"It takes the current monthly ZORI, multiplies it by twelve, and divides by 30% of income. That produces a gross annual income screen of $51,320 for the stated ZIP index. The calculation is deliberately mechanical: it does not include a household’s debts, assets, utility arrangement, household size, fees, assistance, or a landlord’s qualification process.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"Redfin measures a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale and resale window, including sales, prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. These observations provide a separate resale check on the rent history. They are not rental comparables or lease transactions, and the annualized rent-to-price figure only relates two aggregate source values; it cannot establish a specific property’s economics.","q":"What does the Redfin block measure?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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