At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 38115 is $1,075 per month. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a bedroom-specific lease quote. For context only, the Memphis city rent context is $1,279.69, the Shelby County rent context is $1,389, and the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro rent context is $1,435; each is a wider geography, not a substitute for this ZIP measure. The ZIP’s current index sits below all three context levels, so a search anchored only to city, county, or metro figures could overstate the ZIP-level asking-rent snapshot. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Recent movement is the key counterweight to the longer record. At the exact same month, ZORI changed -0.89% over 1 year, while annualized same-month changes remain +1.92% over 3 years and +4.08% over 5 years. The latest annual decline therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer measured growth path. These are backward-looking Zillow observations through the stated endpoint, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.82%, maximum drawdown was -3.28%, and coverage was 100% for the available series. That range of movement, combined with the negative recent direction, supports only measured confidence in a single current rent snapshot. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,250 for momentum, 1,289 for stability, and 2,115 for balanced performance; lower rank is higher.
Bedroom detail is modelled rather than observed here. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $893 for a studio, $972 for one bedroom, $1,075 for two bedrooms, $1,423 for three bedrooms, and $1,652 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents or evidence of a unit’s advertised price. The HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Its FY2026 endpoints are $1,130 for a studio and $2,090 for four bedrooms; the local ladder’s intermediate relationships set the remaining modelled steps. The matching two-bedroom model value and ZIP index reflect the scaling method, not an observed two-bedroom market median.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year estimate puts median gross rent at $1,185, with a stated margin of error of $23. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is an asking-rent index. The lower $1,075 index is consequently not a like-for-like replacement for the ACS figure. A 30% required-income screen applied arithmetically to the index yields $43,000 annually, against a ZCTA median household income of $45,636; the implied asking-rent-to-income ratio is 28.3%. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 57.3% of renter households were at or above that burden threshold in ACS, an aggregate burden measure rather than proof about any unit.
ACS ZCTA housing stock shows 19,031 units: 16,117 occupied and 2,914 vacant, for a 15.3% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes account for 76.6% of occupied units, and 2,158 vacant units are classified as for rent. The stock also includes 6,981 single-family units and 1,936 units in large multifamily structures. This renter-heavy composition and vacancy measure are aggregate conditions. The ZIP vacancy rate is above the Memphis city context and Shelby County context rates, but neither that comparison nor the vacant-for-rent count establishes availability, concession terms, condition, or negotiating room for a particular property.
Taken together, the central tension is not a contradiction but a scope issue: a cooling ZIP asking-rent index sits below the broader Memphis city, Shelby County, and Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro rent contexts, while the ZCTA survey reports substantial rent burden and a distinctly renter-oriented occupied stock. Each statistic answers a different question—current typical asking-rent movement, surveyed household outlay, administrative program standard, or wider-area context. The history and ranks describe past observations, not a prediction of future rents or investment performance. Likewise, a broad geography may frame a search, but it cannot be treated as the ZIP’s unit-level price schedule.
Several limits remain material. The ZCTA boundary is statistical, ZORI blends rental types, ACS results are survey estimates for occupied renter homes, and the HUD ladder is administrative; none identifies a specific advertised unit. Before treating the ZIP snapshot as applicable to a property, confirm the current listed asking rent, bedroom count, floor plan, availability date, lease length, concessions, included and separately charged utilities, recurring fees, and property-specific vacancy or occupancy information. Also compare the listing’s terms with the intended move timing rather than assuming an aggregate vacancy count transfers to that property. Does the verified unit-level offer still align with the distinct ZIP measures after those checks?
","findings":[{"body":"The exact same-month record shows a 0.9% decline over the latest year after annualized gains over the three- and five-year windows. This is a break in direction, not evidence that the longer trend has disappeared. Full series coverage supports the measurement, while the recorded volatility and drawdown mean the latest index should be read as a current indicator with a visible historical range, not a forecast.","title":"Cooling interrupts the longer growth record"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom figures are derived by applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI. They are useful for maintaining a consistent relative bedroom pattern around the ZIP index, but they are not measured rents, advertised rents, or a survey median. HUD FMR/SAFMR has an administrative, bedroom-specific purpose, so its levels should remain distinct from Zillow’s blended asking-rent index.","title":"The bedroom series is a HUD-scaled model"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent reflects occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities, while ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents across rental types. The difference between their current levels cannot identify whether a particular unit is cheap, expensive, or utility-inclusive. The ACS margin of error and the ZCTA’s statistical boundary are additional reasons to keep this survey estimate separate from the Zillow ZIP market identifier.","title":"Gross rent and asking rent answer different questions"},{"body":"The ZCTA reports a high renter share, a notable vacancy rate, and a majority of renter households meeting the burden threshold. These aggregates may be relevant to market context, but they do not demonstrate that any available property is vacant, discounted, affordable to a specific household, or offered on comparable terms. Property-level advertised rent, fees, utilities, and timing remain unobserved by these ZIP-level measures.","title":"Aggregate pressure coexists with vacant stock"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR use different populations, inclusions, and purposes. Treating their dollar values as interchangeable could create a false rent comparison for a particular listing or lease.","The one-year decline follows longer historical gains, but the history is observational and backward-looking. Neither the trend, its ranks, nor the volatility measurement predicts future asking rents or property performance.","The matched ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS estimates are survey-based. Boundary differences and sampling uncertainty limit direct property-level interpretation.","Vacant-for-rent counts, vacancy rate, renter share, and rent burden are area aggregates. They cannot establish a unit’s current availability, condition, concessions, utilities, fees, or applicant-specific affordability."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is described here as a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes a market signal at the stated endpoint, rather than recording the exact price of a particular floor plan, bedroom count, lease term, utility package, or available unit. The bedroom values in this report therefore are modelled, not direct listing observations.","q":"Why is the Zillow ZORI not the same as a listing price?"},{"a":"ACS uses a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA. Its median gross rent includes selected utilities, and its result carries a reported margin of error. Zillow ZORI instead tracks a ZIP-level asking-rent index. Because the population, rent definition, and geography framework differ, the two figures should be compared as separate indicators rather than substitutes.","q":"Why does ACS gross rent differ from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"The required-income figure takes the current monthly ZORI, annualizes it, and applies the stated 30% screen. It is arithmetic intended to make the rent-to-income comparison transparent. It does not account for household size, debts, savings, unit utilities, fees, taxes, assistance, or landlord criteria, and it is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule.","q":"What does the required-income calculation mean?"},{"a":"No. Vacancy and vacant-for-rent totals describe ZCTA-wide housing stock at the survey level, while the history describes past Zillow index observations. Neither says whether a particular unit is listed, usable, priced comparably, or available on a desired date. Nor does either measure forecast future rent. Confirm the active listing, bedroom configuration, lease terms, concessions, utilities, fees, and occupancy information directly for that property.","q":"Can the vacancy and history data establish a unit's availability or future rent?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":828.886115},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":840.720403},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":855.585383},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":874.531941},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":879.833381},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":894.312765},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":916.742205},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":925.348116},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":914.604189},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":915.61271},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":917.247443},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":930.262928},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":933.578385},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":950.629312},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":961.152338},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":966.617264},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":966.811426},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":975.581019},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":975.382556},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":984.058157},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":989.184321},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1001.699638},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1008.203049},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":997.726273},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":996.833879},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":991.08117},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":999.404679},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1003.504229},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1015.101112},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1010.064637},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1013.475345},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1005.757035},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1010.030833},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1006.443003},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1019.530973},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1039.158317},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1053.930688},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1050.646},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1045.358269},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1047.504289},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1058.650635},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1065.362129},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1068.763091},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1075.15482},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1083.031668},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1085.987453},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1084.810211},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1083.552191},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1093.639553},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1098.054731},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1101.737817},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1090.437155},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1084.384939},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1085.089066},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1085.331602},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1087.110729},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1082.848716},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1083.882563},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1080.643296},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1077.043474},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1065.647003},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1067.371757},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1067.703346},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1076.110837},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1074.771825}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1084.384939,"endRent":1074.771825,"change":-0.008865038285080784,"cagr":-0.008865038285080784},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1015.101112,"endRent":1074.771825,"change":0.058783023971310744,"cagr":0.01922247036756386},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":879.833381,"endRent":1074.771825,"change":0.2215629097618883,"cagr":0.04083806719949035}},"maxDrawdown":-0.032758078594664286,"annualizedVolatility":0.028243987790199446,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}