The five-digit label 38117 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s current ZIP-level ZORI is $1,473, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and it is down 1.0% from a year earlier. That asking-rent level exceeds the City of Memphis context rent of $1,280, the Shelby County context rent of $1,389, and the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro context rent of $1,435. The immediate tension is therefore not a low relative rent level but a modest recent decline after a longer period of growth.
Backward-looking Zillow history separates the current dip from the broader path. The exact same-month annualized one-year rent-history measure is -1.0%, while the three-year measure is 2.0% and the five-year measure is 3.7%. Thus, recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the positive longer-run pattern. The series has full coverage, with 64 monthly observations and 63 consecutive monthly returns, so the comparison is not based on gaps. Still, annualized variability of 3.9% argues against placing excessive confidence in a single current rent snapshot, and the historical maximum drawdown of 5.6% shows that declines larger than the latest annual move have occurred. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,248 for momentum, 2,534 for stability, and 2,691 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs; lower ranks are stronger. These are descriptive history measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source differences matter because the rent figures answer different questions. The matched ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,457, with a $88 margin of error, for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI instead reflects typical observed asking rents, so its 1.1% premium to ACS gross rent is a close cross-source comparison, not proof that any lease is priced above or below its market. HUD’s FY2026 local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,470, placing ZIP ZORI 0.2% above that benchmark. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and neither HUD nor ACS should be substituted for a live advertised unit quote.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than measured. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,222 for a studio, $1,333 for one bedroom, $1,473 for two bedrooms, $1,944 for three bedrooms, and $2,265 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD ladder’s relative bedroom spacing while anchoring it to the ZIP asking-rent index. They are not observed bedroom rents, advertised rent medians, or lease transactions. Their practical use is to make the ZORI benchmark more bedroom-sensitive while retaining clear uncertainty about the actual mix, condition, utilities, and availability of rental units represented in the ZIP.
The arithmetic affordability screen is comparatively favorable at the area-median-income level, but burden data introduce a counterweight. Applying the 30% rent-to-income calculation to the current asking-rent index produces required annual income of $58,920. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $85,633, and annualized ZIP asking rent equals 20.6% of that median income. That comparison is an area-level screen, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Among the survey’s renter households, 1,438 of 2,821, or 51.0%, report spending at least thirty percent of income on gross rent. This burden measure includes occupied renter homes, not prospective tenants, and cannot establish affordability for a particular household or unit.
Housing composition and vacancy provide useful scale but not unit-level availability evidence. The ACS ZCTA contains 12,235 housing units, with a 5.1% vacancy rate and 175 units classified as vacant for rent. Renters occupy 24.3% of occupied homes, while the structure mix is predominantly single-family rather than large multifamily. Compared with the wider Memphis city and Shelby County context, the ZIP’s lower renter presence and lower vacancy indicate a different housing-use profile, but the contextual values do not replace ZIP evidence. A vacant-for-rent count does not show asking price, condition, concessions, lease timing, or whether a particular home is actually available.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation points to softer for-sale conditions, not rental transactions. Median sold price is $280,437, down 10.4% year over year; 154 homes sold with a median 28 days on market. Inventory stands at 206 homes and months of supply is 4.1. Sale-to-list averaged 97.7%, while 13.4% of sales closed above list, signals that belong only to the resale universe. This resale evidence broadly confirms the recent Zillow rent-history slowdown because both the annual rent change and the sold-price change are negative, although the sale-price decline is substantially larger. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.3%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level income or return measure.
The evidence is strongest as a disciplined ZIP screen and weakest when applied to an individual address. Zillow is an asking-rent index, ACS is a survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin measures completed resale activity over its stated rolling window. None identifies a property’s rent-ready condition, included utilities, lease term, concessions, tenant income, sale concessions, financing, or operating expenses. Property-level review should verify the address’s market mapping, bedroom count, unit type, current advertised comparables, utility responsibility, lease provisions, vacancy status, recent closed-sale comparables, listing history, and differences between list and recorded sale terms. The historical series and resale screen describe past observations rather than future outcomes.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP Zillow asking rent exceeds the reported City of Memphis, Shelby County, and Memphis metro context rents. Yet the one-year ZORI change is negative after positive three-year and five-year annualized changes. The strongest read is a currently higher-priced ZIP benchmark experiencing a recent interruption in its longer historical growth path, rather than a uniformly strengthening rent series.","title":"Current rent is elevated versus wider context, but the latest direction is negative"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI sits near both ACS median gross rent and the local HUD two-bedroom standard. That proximity is useful for orientation, but each figure has a distinct universe: asking-rent observations, occupied renter households with selected utilities, and an administrative bedroom standard. The alignment should not be interpreted as an observed rent for a particular apartment or house.","title":"Cross-source rent benchmarks are closely aligned but not interchangeable"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen places annualized asking rent below thirty percent of area median household income, while about half of surveyed renter households report gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. The difference is decision-relevant because median household income is not renter-specific income, and burden statistics describe existing occupied households rather than the affordability of a given available unit.","title":"Area-level income screen and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a year-over-year decline in median sold price alongside measurable transaction volume, marketing time, inventory, and below-list average sale outcomes. Those are for-sale signals only. Their direction matches the recent rent decline, while the rent-to-price calculation remains only a cross-source screening ratio and does not establish property economics.","title":"Resale softness reinforces caution around a single rent snapshot"}],"risks":["A Zillow asking-rent index blends rental types and does not reveal the condition, lease terms, utilities, concessions, availability date, or exact bedroom mix of a particular property being considered.","ACS estimates describe occupied renter households in a statistical ZCTA and carry survey uncertainty; they cannot identify the income, gross-rent burden, or household circumstances associated with an individual available rental.","The Redfin evidence is limited to direct ZIP resale activity over a rolling period. Sold-price, inventory, and marketing signals are not rental comparables and should not be translated into lease outcomes.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits the local HUD relative structure, but HUD standards are administrative benchmarks. Actual bedroom rents may differ because of unit type, condition, utility treatment, and timing."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures come from separate evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Similar values do not make them interchangeable or establish a lease price for a specific unit.","q":"Why does the report show different rent figures for the same ZIP?"},{"a":"The one-year annualized result is negative, whereas the three-year and five-year measures remain positive. That means the recent direction breaks from the longer path. Full observation coverage supports the measurement, but elevated variability and the recorded historical drawdown mean one current ZORI reading should be treated as a benchmark with meaningful month-to-month and cycle-related uncertainty.","q":"What does the rent-history pattern say about the current asking-rent snapshot?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. The method supplies a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom structure, but it does not measure advertised rents, executed leases, or median rents for bedroom categories. Property-level comparisons still need current listings with matching unit type, condition, utilities, and lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents in ZIP 38117?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price from the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. It can help compare two cross-source benchmarks at a high level, but it excludes expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, vacancy experience, concessions, and property condition. It therefore does not describe the economics or outcome of a particular home.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1196.044339},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1201.532655},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1211.485689},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1230.445048},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1247.35452},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1266.338868},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1276.684263},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1292.741955},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1290.888974},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1297.964189},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1296.623381},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1310.796791},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1313.249435},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1335.859233},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1346.285601},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1351.281165},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1347.39305},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1336.433666},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1357.335516},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1349.266201},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1376.700578},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1375.983476},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1396.156871},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1403.154458},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1410.232783},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1415.588858},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1405.403027},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1389.810014},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1391.758722},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1403.462054},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1407.676485},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1404.782046},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1386.038742},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1378.387745},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1403.455889},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1416.064996},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1445.956353},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1436.311224},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1448.09367},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1488.927366},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1512.12991},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1523.711972},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1492.991184},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1481.79385},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1483.417911},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1502.194308},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1486.249692},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1477.333815},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1437.932208},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1475.424413},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1479.24075},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1487.868148},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1481.240271},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1478.726424},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1502.797704},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1520.895179},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1529.056797},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1522.746614},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1520.862651},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1521.308108},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1535.939028},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1508.353819},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1499.633404},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1473.452951}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1487.868148,"endRent":1473.452951,"change":-0.009688490891734625,"cagr":-0.009688490891734625},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1389.810014,"endRent":1473.452951,"change":0.06018300066731275,"cagr":0.019671495092083546},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1230.445048,"endRent":1473.452951,"change":0.19749594132220039,"cagr":0.03670408549139559}},"maxDrawdown":-0.05629657414019462,"annualizedVolatility":0.038877403852286996,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}