Rental and resale directions are not aligned in 38118. At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, ZIP ZORI is $1,225 per month, a 2.65% same-month increase from a year earlier, while the direct ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year price decline. That divergence is the report’s main decision tension: a strengthening asking-rent index does not automatically map to the for-sale market. The ZORI-to-sale-price figure below is therefore only a cross-source screen, not a property-level outcome. This ZIP is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
These rent measures answer different questions. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types; for wider context, the Memphis city rent is $1,279.69, the Shelby County rent is $1,389, and the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro rent is $1,435. Such city, county, and metro figures are context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence. In contrast, the ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent is $1,181, a survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,230, an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. These source scopes explain why the series should not be used interchangeably.
The history places the current reading in a fuller but backward-looking record. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change is 2.65% over one year, 2.48% over three years, and 5.51% over five years. Recent direction thus broadly confirms the intermediate pace but breaks from the faster five-year path; it does not forecast the next reading. Full history coverage supports that comparison. The 3.26% annualized variability of monthly returns says a single current rent snapshot has observed fluctuation around it, so it deserves measured rather than absolute confidence. Separately, the maximum drawdown was -1.06%, documenting historical downside in this index. Transparent national discovery ranks are 1,204 for momentum, 1,991 for stability, and 1,652 for balanced history; lower ranks are higher, and none is an investment recommendation.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale evidence through June 30, 2026 is resale evidence rather than rental transactions. The median sold price was $142,468, down 1.06% year over year, with 51 homes sold and a median 41 days on market. Inventory increased 68.95%, while months of supply stood at 6.3. Average sale-to-list was 94.93%; 14.01% of sales closed above list. Alongside rent-index growth, the lower resale price and these supply and sale-to-list signals challenge any simple all-positive reading. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 10.32%, solely a cross-source screening ratio, not a result for any individual property.
Affordability is another tension, but it requires survey and arithmetic labels. In the matched ZCTA, ACS reports median household income of $43,446. Applying the 30% screen to the current monthly ZORI produces a required annual income of $49,000, above that median, and an asking-rent-to-income ratio of 33.84%. That 30% calculation is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden estimate refers to its own occupied-renter survey universe: 4,335 of 7,949 renter households, or 54.54%, reported gross-rent burden at or above that threshold. Since gross rent includes selected utilities and ZORI is an asking-rent index, the burden result is not proof about the affordability of a particular available unit.
Housing counts show an uneven housing base without identifying the condition or availability of any given address. The matched ZCTA contains 16,253 housing units and an all-unit vacancy rate of 18.73%. Its stock includes 9,900 single-family units and 1,002 units in large multifamily structures, while renters make up 60.18% of occupied households. That renter share is above the Memphis city context share and the Shelby County context share, but those broader geographies remain comparison points only. The ZIP’s all-unit vacancy metric should also not be equated with the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro apartment vacancy measure, because the geography and unit universe differ. Nor does the vacancy figure establish that a specific unit is rentable, competitively priced, or currently open.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled, not observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder generates monthly modelled estimates of $1,016 for a studio, $1,105 for one bedroom, $1,225 for two bedrooms, $1,613 for three bedrooms, and $1,882 for four bedrooms. They are not measured bedroom rents or a set of rental comparables. The purpose of the ladder is to preserve the local HUD spacing around the ZIP-wide index; HUD FMR/SAFMR itself remains an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation. Differences in unit mix, utilities, and rental type mean that the ZIP-wide and bedroom-modelled readings serve distinct descriptive roles.
Limits matter at the address level. ZORI does not identify a unit’s advertised date, condition, bedroom count, concessions, included utilities, lease term, or availability; ACS adds survey uncertainty and applies to occupied renter homes; HUD is a standard; and Redfin tracks ZIP resales, not rental deals. Property-level verification would therefore need the actual unit’s current advertised rent, bedroom configuration, utility treatment, lease and concession terms, as well as its sale record, list price, and transaction timing when resale evidence is relevant. The historical measures and discovery ranks remain backward-looking measurements, not forecasts. The practical question is which separate evidence universe matches the question being asked, rather than whether one ZIP statistic can decide it.
","findings":[{"body":"At the June endpoint, the ZIP asking-rent index moved higher year over year while the direct resale median moved lower. Inventory growth, 6.3 months of supply, and below-list average sale-to-list results keep the resale evidence in a different direction from the rent reading. The contrast is a screening tension only; each source observes a different market universe.","title":"Rent growth and resale softness diverge"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD should be read side by side rather than merged. ZORI is an asking-rent index across rental types; ACS median gross rent is a five-year occupied-renter survey that includes selected utilities; HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The modelled bedroom values use the HUD ladder to scale ZORI, so they communicate model structure rather than observed unit rents.","title":"Rent sources use different universes"},{"body":"Historical completeness makes the one-, three-, and five-year comparisons readable, but it does not remove index uncertainty. Monthly return variability records actual movement around prior ZORI levels, and maximum drawdown records the deepest historical decline. The most recent annual pace is close to the three-year rate and well below the five-year rate, a backward-looking deceleration relative to the longer span.","title":"History supports context, not prediction"},{"body":"The income screen and survey burden measure are intentionally distinct. The screen annualizes current asking ZORI and divides by 30%, whereas ACS burden reports household survey responses involving gross rent and selected utilities. With more than half of surveyed renter households at or above the threshold, ZIP-level pressure is visible, but it cannot classify any particular unit or household.","title":"Income screen and burden measure remain separate"}],"risks":["The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so survey estimates can cover a boundary that does not precisely match a particular mailing address.","ACS gross rent and burden describe occupied renter households over a five-year survey period and have sampling uncertainty; neither gives current concessions, included utilities, or affordability for a vacant unit.","Bedroom figures are modelled from the ZIP-wide index and HUD ladder, so they can differ from current listing rents when unit traits, rental type, or utility treatment differs.","Redfin’s rolling resale measures may describe transaction conditions, but they do not supply rental transactions, unit-level rent comparables, or a property-specific result for an address within the ZIP."],"qa":[{"a":"The June Zillow figure is a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its gross-rent definition includes selected utilities. Timing, population, and definition differ. The ZCTA is statistical and does not exactly reproduce USPS ZIP delivery geography.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI not the same as the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative and bedroom specific, not a set of current asking-rent observations. Therefore the ladder conveys relative spacing, not measured rents, completed leases, or unit-level comparables.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents for each size?"},{"a":"It is a cross-source screening ratio built from annualized ZIP ZORI and the direct ZIP median sold price. It does not state a particular home’s rent, expenses, financing, condition, or transaction timing. Redfin observes for-sale resales while Zillow observes asking rents, so the ratio is descriptive only and cannot combine those sources into a single property result or market measure.","q":"What can be inferred from annualized ZORI divided by median sold price?"},{"a":"No. Dividing annualized asking ZORI by 30% produces a transparent arithmetic income threshold, while the ACS burden share describes surveyed occupied renter households with gross rent at or above the threshold. It is not advice, an underwriting rule, or an applicant qualification rule. Household income, utilities, lease terms, and the actual unit remain outside that arithmetic.","q":"Does the 30% affordability screen decide whether a household qualifies?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":912.822341},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":929.075887},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":924.317542},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":936.607717},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":942.510999},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":973.449029},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":992.403219},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1007.392295},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1000.438154},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1030.612153},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1033.807458},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1072.00602},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1068.139065},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1087.720705},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1100.587243},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1102.538715},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1100.076124},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1094.323371},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1099.920348},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1119.257508},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1122.289345},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1112.989253},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1116.886025},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1118.328365},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1126.168628},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1120.552894},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1120.973805},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1138.02706},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1142.186636},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1145.013983},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1136.554351},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1132.836023},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1136.234285},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1139.124781},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1151.554572},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1157.943809},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1163.432325},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1166.289517},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1180.627666},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1179.880819},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1187.786911},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1176.190898},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1185.66298},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1187.868057},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1194.912051},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1196.452447},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1189.265339},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1186.367459},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1192.657664},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1201.766872},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1197.94343},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1193.253896},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1193.465844},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1208.373269},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1210.509664},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1212.726318},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1211.685499},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1216.027346},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1220.33271},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1223.567347},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1220.174775},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1218.053079},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1218.987171},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1224.823587}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1193.253896,"endRent":1224.823587,"change":0.026456809490274846,"cagr":0.026456809490274846},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1138.02706,"endRent":1224.823587,"change":0.07626929978273123,"cagr":0.024802833313721795},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":936.607717,"endRent":1224.823587,"change":0.307723142537379,"cagr":0.055123174486632065}},"maxDrawdown":-0.010635643040876275,"annualizedVolatility":0.032589231088892126,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}