Rent and resale are giving different recent signals in 38127. Zillow ZIP ZORI for June 2026 is $1,085 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Its exact same-month change is -0.26% over one year, against annualized gains of 3.30% over three years and 6.17% over five years. The latest movement therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer upward path: the index has edged down after multi-year growth. These are backward-looking observed-index measurements, not a forecast, investment recommendation, or proof that every listing or lease in the ZIP changed in the same way.
The reliability of that comparison depends on its record as well as its endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.53%, and the historical maximum drawdown was -2.57%, so the observed index did experience declines even within its longer rise. History coverage was 98.57%, supporting a nearly complete monthly series rather than a sparse sequence. On transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranked 1,780, stability ranked 750, and the balanced measure ranked 1,340; lower ranks are higher. The relatively better stability rank fits modest variability, while the weaker momentum rank fits the recent cooling. That combination supports more confidence in the index's recorded current level than in treating a single month as a settled direction.
Evidence universes must remain distinct. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year result is a survey of occupied renter homes: its median gross rent is $1,160 and includes selected utilities. That survey measure is not an asking-rent quote; the ZIP ZORI equals 93.53% of it. For wider context only, the City of Memphis scope has an asking-rent index of $1,279.69, the Shelby County scope has $1,389, and the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro scope has $1,435. Each exceeds the ZIP index while describing a different geography.
Bedroom figures add a useful sizing framework but not direct rent observations. The supplied FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents, of $903 for a studio, $985 for one bedroom, $1,085 for two bedrooms, $1,431 for three bedrooms, and $1,669 for four bedrooms. The local HUD standard for two bedrooms is $1,190, which is a benchmark used in the scaling, not evidence that two-bedroom units ask or transact at that amount. Differences in utilities, unit quality, lease terms, and rental type remain outside this modelled ladder.
Income and burden readings make the rent snapshot more demanding to interpret. The matched ZCTA's median household income is $36,901. At the 30% screen, annual income required to cover the ZIP's current annualized ZORI is $43,400, and asking rent is 35.28% of that median income. This required-income calculation is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; it does not measure any household's actual budget. Separately, ACS estimates that 4,185 of 8,341 renter households, or 50.17%, spend at least 30% of income on rent. That burden estimate concerns surveyed occupied renter homes and cannot prove that a particular tenant, property, or advertised unit is burdened.
Survey housing counts provide a scale check, not a live availability feed. In the matched ZCTA, ACS records 17,662 housing units, 14,427 occupied units, and 3,235 vacant units, a vacancy rate of 18.32%. The stock categories include 13,842 single-family units and 184 units in large multifamily structures. Of vacant units, 1,124 are classified for rent, but this category does not identify condition, asking price, lease readiness, or the date an individual unit was available. The rate and category counts therefore signal that vacancy is material in the survey universe, while providing no proof of vacancy or bargaining position for a particular address.
Resale evidence provides a separate counterpoint. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation ending in June 2026 reports a median sold price of $88,680, up 3.12% year over year, while the rental index's one-year change was slightly negative. It logged 97 homes sold with a median 65 days on market. Inventory was 221 homes and months of supply stood at 6.9. The average sale-to-list ratio was 92.57%, and 8.52% of homes sold above list. These are resale transactions and listing-market signals only, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. They confirm a recent rise in the ZIP's resale median but challenge any simple reading of a falling rent index as a uniformly weaker housing-market signal.
The cross-source annualized-ZORI-to-median-sold-price screen is 14.68%, but it is only a screening ratio formed by annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing by Redfin's median sold price. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, because it omits property-specific costs, occupancy, financing, taxes, and transaction details. The tension remains decision-relevant but unresolved: longer rent history was positive, current asking rent cooled, resale price rose, and the income and burden screens remain tight in their separate universes. Before relying on any snapshot, check the property's actual asking rent and included utilities, bedroom count and layout, lease terms, condition, current availability, vacancy classification, and directly comparable recent sale and list records. Which of those address-level records aligns with the reported ZIP measures?
","findings":[{"body":"At June 2026, Zillow's ZIP asking-rent index was $1,085 and had slipped 0.26% from the same month a year earlier. That cooling signal sits beside positive annualized three-year and five-year paths. The high reported coverage makes the series useful trend context, while the latest reversal means it should not be treated as a straight-line continuation or a forecast for individual properties.","title":"Recent cooling follows longer rent growth"},{"body":"ACS and Zillow answer different questions. The matched ZCTA's five-year median gross rent includes selected utilities and reflects occupied renter homes, whereas Zillow tracks a typical asking-rent index across rental types. The arithmetic income screen exceeds the ZCTA median household income, and half of surveyed renter households are rent burdened. These are area-level screening facts, not tenant underwriting or statements about any available unit.","title":"Affordability evidence is meaningful but source-specific"},{"body":"Bedroom figures should be used only as a modelled ladder. They take the ZIP-wide Zillow index and scale it using the local HUD bedroom standard, producing size-specific estimates rather than observed bedroom rents. HUD's FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent series. Actual units may differ because the supplied data do not resolve utility treatment, condition, layout, lease terms, or listing status.","title":"Bedroom values are modelled estimates"},{"body":"Redfin's rolling three-month ZIP resale sample shows a higher median sold price year over year, even as the current rent index was slightly lower. At the same time, its months-of-supply and sale-to-list readings describe resale availability and negotiation, not rental demand or operating results. Annualized ZIP rent divided by median sold price is useful only as a cross-source screen and cannot establish cap rate, return, or property yield.","title":"Resale pricing and rent direction diverge"}],"risks":["Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI is a blended asking-rent index. It may not match a specific unit's size, lease structure, included utilities, condition, or actual signed rent, even when the address uses the same delivery ZIP.","ACS's 2024 five-year ZCTA estimates carry sampling uncertainty, including margins of error for gross rent and household income; they cannot establish present rent, occupancy, or affordability for a specific address.","The survey's vacancy count includes classifications rather than verified live listings. A for-rent vacancy can still be unavailable, differently priced, under repair, or unsuitable for the bedroom and lease comparison being made.","Redfin's rolling resale figures describe sold homes and listing-market conditions, not rental transactions. The rent-to-price screen omits property-level expenses and terms, so it cannot determine operating performance or net return."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,085 figure is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a median signed lease, an ACS utility-inclusive gross-rent estimate, or a bedroom-specific quote. The ZIP market identifier also serves only as a match to the Census ZCTA, whose statistical boundary is not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"No. The one-year same-month movement is mildly negative, while the three-year and five-year annualized changes remain positive. The appropriate reading is a recent break from the longer observed path. It does not demonstrate that the earlier pace will return, that the decline will persist, or that every rental type in the ZIP is moving together.","q":"Does the recent rent decline overturn the longer history?"},{"a":"The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They use the ZIP-wide ZORI and the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder to distribute that index across sizes. HUD is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, so the estimates do not measure studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit rents observed in individual listings or leases.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"No. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's ZIP median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio only. It excludes unit-specific operating costs, financing, taxes, occupancy, physical condition, and transaction terms. Redfin's price and marketing measures describe direct ZIP resale activity, whereas ZORI describes asking rent, so neither series supplies a property-level net return.","q":"Can the rent-to-price screen be treated as a property return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":772.49286},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":774.666789},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":778.382667},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":782.737415},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":790.88614},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":798.836572},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":810.12413},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":805.311348},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":806.28585},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":804.298636},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":832.889231},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":852.137923},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":861.247763},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":875.660195},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":889.412325},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":907.286435},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":913.664993},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":923.620801},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":931.232303},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":943.458559},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":959.875551},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":968.207371},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":967.491945},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":961.214948},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":971.064854},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":981.599935},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":988.445127},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":977.570073},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":981.88876},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":982.230898},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":986.131435},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":985.634996},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":984.038449},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":987.873433},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":989.379395},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":999.717826},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":999.7562},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1000.696413},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":995.575791},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1009.621317},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1019.171825},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1031.673271},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1037.716017},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1038.49499},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1039.413326},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1046.964634},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1054.620227},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1054.151729},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1060.148447},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1054.257012},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1056.603155},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1053.784365},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1067.568619},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1070.472531},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1085.662109},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1088.683702},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1087.638768},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1087.722397},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1089.930749},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1094.212588},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1094.943184},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1103.457878},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1108.827834},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1111.331637},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1099.563941},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1095.059241},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1082.882028},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1082.732478},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1084.83325}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":69,"firstPeriod":"2020-09-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":70,"coverageRatio":0.9857142857142858,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1087.638768,"endRent":1084.83325,"change":-0.0025794575207713777,"cagr":-0.0025794575207713777},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":984.038449,"endRent":1084.83325,"change":0.10242973849490289,"cagr":0.03303960826544117},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":804.298636,"endRent":1084.83325,"change":0.34879409393900795,"cagr":0.06166898698917245}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02573413556119264,"annualizedVolatility":0.025262070763709267,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}