ZIP 38128 enters June 2026 with a Zillow ZORI of $1,324 per month. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a benchmark rather than a quoted rent for a particular available home. The five-digit label is Zillow's ZIP market identifier and also matches a Census ZCTA, a statistical area that is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the same wider-context comparison, the Memphis city context is $1,279.69, the Shelby County context is $1,389, and the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro context is $1,435; city, county, and metro values are contextual scopes, not substitutes for the ZIP observation. The ZIP sits above the city context while below county and metro context. That uneven comparison is a reason to retain the ZIP benchmark rather than replace it with a broad regional figure; it does not identify the source of differences or the rent of any listing.
The key tension in the time series is cooling rather than a claimed decline. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 0.8769% over one year, 2.9646% over three years, and 5.1569% over five years. The recent direction therefore still confirms an increase from a year earlier, but breaks from the longer path's faster average pace. These are backward-looking measurements, neither a forecast nor an investment recommendation. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.5277%, maximum drawdown was -2.1834%, and history coverage was 99.2754%. Those measures document a mostly complete series that nonetheless moved and experienced a decline, giving more continuity to the current snapshot than an isolated point but no basis to treat it as a fixed offer. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,583 for momentum, 752 for stability, and 1,100 for balanced history; lower rank is higher. These ranks organize historical discovery only and do not predict future rents.
Source definitions explain why this is not a single-rent verdict. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,196 median gross rent, making the asking index 10.70% higher. ACS measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is neither a current asking-rent series nor an average of advertised homes. For a separate administrative reference, the FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,350, placing it above the ZIP index. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent or a market quote. Thus Zillow's typical observed asking-rent index, the ACS gross-rent median, and the HUD standard describe different universes. They can supply context alongside one another, but their numerical proximity or gap does not validate an advertised price.
Bedroom detail should be read as a mechanical extension, not newly observed market evidence. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,098 for a studio, $1,197 for one bedroom, $1,324 for two bedrooms, $1,746 for three bedrooms, and $2,040 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The scaling preserves the local HUD ladder's relative spacing while tying the level to ZORI; it does not establish that a home of each size was advertised, available, or leased at that amount. Bedroom count cannot settle differences in building type, condition, included services, lease terms, concessions, or the date of a quote. For a property comparison, the advertised facts override this synthetic ladder.
Household evidence creates a separate tension: the index-to-income screen exceeds the ZCTA median, while burden is already widespread in the survey. At the 30% required-income screen, the monthly benchmark translates arithmetically to $52,960 in annual income, above the ZCTA median household income of $47,645; annualized asking rent equals 33.3% of that median. The screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden estimate separately reports 5,070 of 9,180 renter households, or 55.2%, spending at least 30% of income on rent. It is a five-year population-level survey estimate, not proof that a particular unit is affordable, unavailable, or burdensome to any applicant. Median household income is also broader than a renter-specific underwriting file, so this frames a benchmark gap rather than a lease decision.
Stock and vacancy evidence should likewise be held at aggregate scale. The matched ZCTA has 11,877 single-family units and 779 large-multifamily units, a mix that may not resemble the structure of a target rental. Its overall vacancy rate is 12.2%, and 977 units are classified vacant for rent. Neither measure is a live inventory count: vacant-for-rent status does not establish condition, price, habitability, bedroom count, application status, or availability on the reader's date. In particular, it cannot demonstrate a concession or a vacancy at a named property. These counts describe a survey inventory, so they complement the ZIP rent benchmark but do not turn it into evidence about a particular unit.
The remaining limits are practical and material. ZORI is a blended area index, ACS is a multiyear survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is an administrative benchmark, and the city, county, and metro figures are broader context; none identifies an actual property's monthly obligation. Before applying this report to a home, verify its physical address and ZIP match, listing date, bedroom count, structure, advertised base rent, included and mandatory utilities, recurring fees, deposit, concessions, lease duration, occupancy status, and actual availability. Also separate a stated monthly rent from all charges required by the lease, because a headline amount may not align with either gross rent or an administrative standard. Those property-level checks do not forecast rent; they test whether the requested unit resembles the datasets' reference concepts. Which unit-specific facts would make its advertised monthly obligation materially different from the ZIP benchmark?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP 38128's $1,324 Zillow ZORI remained above the Memphis city context but below the Shelby County and Memphis metro contexts. Its one-year increase was positive, yet below its three- and five-year annualized changes. That is evidence of cooling in the historical growth rate, not evidence that future asking rents will decrease.","title":"Cooling trajectory, not a falling index"},{"body":"ACS and HUD answer different questions from ZORI. The matched ZCTA's ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The Zillow measure is a blended asking-rent index. Comparisons can frame reference points but cannot create a unit-level market quote.","title":"Three rent concepts require separate reading"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to the ZIP-wide ZORI. They give a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom reference sequence but are not measured rents, lease results, or active listings. The income screen simply divides the benchmark rent into a stated share of income; it is not a qualification test and does not determine any applicant's affordability.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a modelled conversion"},{"body":"Stock and vacancy indicators are aggregates, not availability records. The ZCTA includes predominantly single-family stock and an overall vacancy rate that includes units classified vacant for rent, but neither establishes condition, price, accessibility, or timing for a specific property. Verify the unit's address, advertised terms, fees, utilities, and availability before applying ZIP-level benchmarks.","title":"Inventory indicators are not availability records"}],"risks":["The ZIP index, ZCTA survey, and HUD standard differ in geography, timing, population, and rent definition. Treating any two as interchangeable can overstate agreement or disagreement around a specific listing.","Cooling is based on historic same-month ZORI changes, not a prediction. The index can still move, and annualized variability plus past drawdown mean one current value is not a guaranteed future quote.","Vacancy counts include a classification of units rather than a live inventory feed. They cannot demonstrate that a particular home is rentable, habitable, comparably sized, or offered under the displayed terms.","The burden share describes surveyed renter households, not the household considering a property. Income, utilities, fees, concessions, lease length, and eligibility conditions can materially change a unit-level obligation."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is the ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful as a current area benchmark, but it is not a signed lease rent, an active-listing quote, or proof that every home in the ZIP has the same monthly obligation.","q":"How should the current Zillow index be read?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent is drawn from occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA's five-year survey and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Zillow ZORI tracks a typical observed asking-rent index, so differences reflect unlike measurement universes rather than a contradiction.","q":"Why do ACS, HUD, and Zillow rent figures differ?"},{"a":"The figures by bedroom are modelled monthly estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are never measured bedroom rents. A specific home may differ because advertised rent, structure, condition, utilities, fees, concessions, and lease terms are not represented by that model.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"Required income at the 30% screen is a mathematical conversion of a benchmark monthly rent to annual income; it is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The burden share is likewise population-level survey evidence and cannot prove affordability, eligibility, or burden for any particular household or unit.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine affordability?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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