At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level asking-rent index for 38401 is $1,582 per month, a 0.26% year-over-year increase. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The central tension is a current rent reading that is almost unchanged from a year earlier despite a stronger longer-run record. This is Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, not a lease-specific quote or a count of every available listing. Against wider context only, the ZIP reading is near $1,580 in the Columbia city context, below $1,688 in the Maury County context, and below $1,810 in the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro context. Those city, county, and metro figures describe wider geographies rather than this ZIP.
Same-month history through the stated endpoint shows annualized changes of 0.26% over 1 year, 0.81% over 3 years, and 4.29% over 5 years. The latest near-flat direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the stronger upward path evident over longer windows; neither pattern is a forecast. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.99%, maximum drawdown was -3.62%, and coverage was 98.86%. Those backward-looking measurements combine substantial coverage with some variation and a realized pullback, so a single current reading deserves less confidence than a multi-month pattern. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,249 for momentum, 1,616 for stability, and 2,321 for balanced performance, where a lower rank places higher. These discovery ranks organize past observations only and are not investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA tells a separate, slower-moving story. Its ACS 2024 five-year survey estimates median gross rent of $1,187. This survey covers occupied renter homes and defines gross rent to include selected utilities; it is not a current asking-rent series and is not limited to homes being marketed. The Zillow index exceeds that survey median by $395, or 33.3%. That difference is a comparison of timing, coverage, and rent concepts, not proof that rents for any specific home rose by that amount. Keeping those universes separate is especially important when using the gap to frame a listing or a household budget.
Bedroom sizing adds a further model rather than a direct observation. These are modelled monthly estimates that scale the ZIP asking-rent index using the local FY2026 HUD bedroom ladder: $1,378 for a studio, $1,402 for one bedroom, $1,582 for two bedrooms, $1,989 for three bedrooms, and $2,421 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, and the scaled figures are never measured bedroom rents. The ladder gives a consistent way to size the ZIP index, but it cannot identify actual asking rents for a property’s configuration, condition, utilities, lease terms, or availability.
One arithmetic screen underscores why the two rent concepts should not be blended. Holding the current monthly asking-rent index to 30% of gross income produces a $63,280 annual required-income screen, while the matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $68,475. The result is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; all-household median income is also not the same universe as renter income. In the ACS renter survey, 45.3% of renter households pay 30% or more of income toward rent. That aggregate burden share is below 50.0% in the Columbia city context and 46.2% in the Maury County context, but it cannot establish affordability, income, or costs for a particular renter or unit.
The matched ZCTA’s housing stock has 29,161 housing units, including 22,178 single-family units. Its overall vacancy rate is 9.0%, and 820 units are classified as vacant for rent. These figures describe the survey’s stock and vacancy classifications, not a live inventory of currently tourable homes, and the rent-vacant count does not show price, bedroom size, condition, landlord terms, or whether a particular unit can be leased. Stock composition and vacancy can therefore supply market context, but neither proves that any specific listing is available or suitable.
Limits matter most where a reader moves from area measures to a property decision. Confirm the live advertised rent, whether the home remains available, the stated bedroom configuration and rental type, lease length, utility treatment, deposits, recurring fees, and all move-in charges. Match those facts to the source being used: Zillow is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes, and HUD is an administrative bedroom standard. Also verify how income is defined for the intended screen rather than treating a ZIP median or burden rate as a household result. With the recent index nearly flat but the longer record firmer, does the specific property’s live quote and terms fit the source-specific benchmark being considered?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index is $1,582, only 0.26% above the same month a year earlier, versus annualized growth of 0.81% over three years and 4.29% over five years. The short window breaks from the longer upward path. This is backward-looking history, and 2.99% annualized variability argues against treating one reading as a complete market description.","title":"Current pause versus the longer record"},{"body":"ACS in the matched ZCTA reports $1,187 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. Zillow’s current index is $395, or 33.3%, higher. The difference reflects distinct dates, coverage, and rent concepts; it should not be treated as a direct measure of a listing’s price or a sudden change in the same homes.","title":"Asking rent and survey rent are distinct"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates built by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents and do not prove a unit’s advertised rent. The method provides a consistent relative size framework, but configuration, utilities, condition, lease terms, and availability remain property-specific checks.","title":"Bedroom values are a scaling model"},{"body":"At 45.3%, the ACS renter burden share is below the Columbia city context and Maury County context, but it remains an area-level statistic. The income screen based on $1,582 and 30% is arithmetic only. Housing stock and vacancy do not identify which homes are available or affordable to a particular household.","title":"Area burden and vacancy do not settle unit affordability"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended observed asking index, ACS gross rent among occupied renter homes, and HUD’s administrative bedroom standard answer different questions; treating their gaps as interchangeable prices can materially misstate a listing comparison.","The matched ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so geographic matching is useful but not exact; its survey estimates may not represent every address.","The bedroom ladder is modelled by applying the local HUD pattern to a blended ZIP index. It does not observe unit-specific rents, utilities, condition, fees, lease terms, concessions, or availability.","Vacancy and rent-burden statistics are area aggregates. They do not prove that a particular property is vacant, affordable to a household, or offered on the terms assumed in an income screen."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow supplies a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS supplies a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. They differ in timing, homes covered, and rent definition, so their values are not substitutes or evidence of a unit’s quoted rent.","q":"Why do Zillow and ACS show different rent levels?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD ladder. HUD supplies an administrative bedroom standard rather than asking-rent observations. The process offers relative sizing consistency, but it does not capture a unit’s actual configuration, utility treatment, condition, lease terms, price, or availability.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual measured rents?"},{"a":"Dividing annualized asking rent by 30% yields a transparent required-income screen. It is arithmetic rather than advice, an affordability judgment, or an applicant qualification rule. Median household income is not renter income, and neither an area median nor a burden share determines whether a specific household can meet a property’s terms.","q":"How should the required-income screen be interpreted?"},{"a":"No. The vacancy rate is a survey-based stock classification. Units classified as vacant for rent may differ in timing, condition, marketing status, price, or availability, while live listings may change rapidly. Confirm the current advert, access, total costs, and lease details directly before using an area vacancy figure for a particular property.","q":"Does the vacancy rate identify currently available rentals?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market 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