As of June 2026, Zillow's typical observed asking-rent index, ZORI, for ZIP 38654 is $1,896 per month. ZORI blends rental types at the ZIP level and is an asking-rent index, rather than a record of rents paid by occupied households. For wider context only, Olive Branch city scope is effectively the same, DeSoto County scope is $1,676, and Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro scope is $1,435; those broader figures are comparison context, not ZIP substitutes. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the geographic labels support comparison without making the two data systems interchangeable.
The backward-looking path contains a meaningful slowdown within continued positive change. Its exact same-month change was 1.14% over the latest one-year interval, compared with annualized 2.16% across three years and 4.10% across five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, but its pace breaks from the faster rates recorded across those longer spans. Annualized variability of monthly returns was 2.89%, and the maximum drawdown was -4.05%. History coverage is 100%, which supports continuity of the measurement record. Its transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,701 for momentum, 1,422 for stability, and 1,740 for balanced; lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measurements frame confidence in a current snapshot: coverage is complete, yet realized variability and a prior decline mean the index alone cannot settle a property's current terms.
Bedroom framing sharpens the source distinction. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,690; the ZIP asking-rent index sits 12.2% above it. The local HUD ladder is used only as a scaling framework for ZORI, producing modelled monthly estimates of $1,582 for a studio, $1,716 for one bedroom, $1,896 for two bedrooms, $2,502 for three bedrooms, and $2,917 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard used here for a relative ladder, not asking rent, and the Zillow index itself blends rental types. An actual listing can differ in bedroom classification and its advertised terms.
ACS answers a different rental question from ZORI. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey gives median gross rent of $1,829 with a $153 margin of error. It surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI reports typical observed asking rents across blended rental types. The current Zillow index stands 3.7% above the ACS result; that arithmetic is not proof that new listings cost the same as an occupied lease, or that any particular household's rent changed by that amount. The sources illuminate different universes rather than competing measurements of one contract.
At ACS ZCTA median household income of $103,092, the $1,896 index implies annual household income of $75,840 under the 30% screen and consumes about 22.1% of that median income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 1,116 of 3,107 renter households are at or above the burden threshold, a 35.9% share; the burden numerator's margin of error is 350. These survey estimates describe households in the ZCTA survey universe, so neither the median-income comparison nor the burden share can establish affordability, eligibility, or payment stress for a named household or unit.
The ACS housing inventory further separates aggregate structure from listing-level evidence. It contains 21,652 housing units and a 3.4% vacancy rate, while renter households account for 14.9% of occupied units. Structure counts list 19,931 single-family units and 322 units in large multifamily structures. The same survey identifies 175 units as vacant for rent, but that is an area-level category rather than evidence that a particular address is available, advertised, habitable, or offered on comparable terms. The figures provide scale and composition for the matched ZCTA; they neither count ZORI observations nor describe a specific property.
Timing and method set the practical limits of every comparison: ZORI has a June endpoint, ACS summarizes a five-year survey, and HUD is a fiscal-year administrative standard. Before comparing a property with any benchmark, verify the advertised monthly rent, bedroom designation, active availability, utilities included, lease term, recurring charges, and whether its address belongs in the relevant geography. Historical measures are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The remaining decision question is whether verified property terms align with the benchmark universe being used?
","findings":[{"body":"In June 2026, ZIP 38654 ZORI was $1,896 monthly. Olive Branch city scope was effectively the same, while DeSoto County scope and Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro scope were $1,676 and $1,435. These are wider geographies, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blending rental types, so it should not be read as a count of contracted rents.","title":"Current index sits at city context, above broader benchmarks"},{"body":"The historical record is complete for 115 observations and shows positive same-month growth at 1.14% for one year, 2.16% annualized for three years, and 4.10% annualized for five years. The latest positive move confirms direction but is slower than longer spans. Monthly-return variability and the maximum drawdown document realized variation, not an expected future path.","title":"Growth remained positive but decelerated"},{"body":"HUD FMR/SAFMR supplies an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a measure of asking rent. Scaling the ZIP index by its local HUD ladder yields modelled estimates ranging from $1,582 for a studio to $2,917 for four bedrooms, with $1,896 for two bedrooms. The estimates are useful as a consistent framework, but no figure is a measured bedroom rent or a property quote.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from an administrative ladder"},{"body":"Matched-ZCTA ACS reports median gross rent of $1,829 and estimates that 35.9% of renter households meet the burden threshold. The same source lists a 3.4% vacancy rate and a renter share of 14.9%. Survey margins and the ZCTA-versus-USPS distinction limit precision. Those aggregate measures cannot establish a particular unit's availability, affordability, utilities, or lease terms.","title":"Survey affordability and inventory require household-level caution"}],"risks":["ZORI describes a blended, typical asking-rent index at the ZIP level. It does not identify the rent, availability, bedroom classification, utilities, fee schedule, or lease terms for any specific property.","The ACS figures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, with margins of error, and the ZCTA is a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. Comparing it directly to a current ZIP index can obscure timing and universe differences.","HUD standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, while the bedroom figures here are scaled from a blended ZORI. A unit's actual bedroom coding, rent, fees, included utilities, and marketing status can produce a different result.","Area vacancy, vacant-for-rent counts, and structure composition describe aggregates. They do not prove that an individual address is currently open, suitable, advertised at the benchmark price, or offered under comparable lease conditions."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is Zillow's ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index. The figure summarizes asking rents across blended rental types at the stated time, rather than rents paid in the ACS universe. It is not a measured two-bedroom rent, a count of available units, or proof of any listing's active price, utilities, or final lease terms.","q":"What does the current $1,896 figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent is drawn from occupied renter homes in the ACS five-year survey and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blending rental types. Their difference reflects distinct timing and definitions; it cannot identify a universal gap between a new listing and any occupied household.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent different from Zillow's asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom series is explicitly modelled. It scales the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder, preserving the ladder's relative bedroom pattern. These are not observed rents for studios or other bedroom counts, and they should not be treated as listing comparables or as evidence of a property's actual price.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates evidence of observed rents by unit size?"},{"a":"The complete 115-observation history documents what ZORI did through its stated endpoint: positive same-month growth over one, three, and five years, a slower latest pace, 2.89% annualized monthly-return variability, and a -4.05% maximum drawdown. Those measurements improve historical context but are backward-looking, not forecasts, recommendations, or evidence of a particular unit's future rent.","q":"What does the historical record say about confidence in the current reading?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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