At the June endpoint, Zillow reports a $1,541 typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, following a 5.2% year-over-year gain. Applying a 30% required-income screen to that monthly index yields $61,640 annually; against the matched ZCTA's ACS median household income of $69,426, the simple ratio is 26.6%. This screen is arithmetic, not affordability advice or an applicant qualification rule. Its apparent headroom sits beside a distinct survey signal: 53.9% of renter households reported spending at least the threshold on rent. The contrast does not describe any particular home or household, but it makes one current asking-rent snapshot less decisive.
Source distinction is essential. The five-digit label 39211 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched 2024 ACS five-year survey, median gross rent is $1,337, with a $128 margin of error; it covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow's current index is 15.3% higher than that survey median, but neither source substitutes for the other. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,460, below ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent.
Bedroom orientation should be read only as a scaling exercise. Using the supplied local HUD ladder to scale ZIP ZORI creates modelled monthly estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,309 for studios and one-bedrooms, $1,541 for two bedrooms, $1,847 for three bedrooms, and $2,037 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD standard runs from $1,240 at the studio/one-bedroom end to $1,930 at four bedrooms. Those standards set proportional steps; they do not verify unit-specific rents, condition, lease terms, included utilities, or availability.
The direct Zillow ZIP history is complete through the stated endpoint. At exact same-month intervals, ZORI rose 5.2% over one year, 6.1% annualized across three years, and 6.4% annualized across five years. The recent advance therefore confirms rather than breaks the positive longer path, although it is slower than both longer annualized rates. Coverage is 100%. A 3.6% annualized monthly-return variability implies that movement around the trend has not been uniformly smooth, reducing confidence in one current snapshot. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 3.4%, an observed past retreat rather than an outlook. This ZIP's high-variability label is reinforced by national discovery ranks of 228 for momentum, 2,353 for stability, and 830 for balanced score among history-eligible ZIPs; lower ranks are higher. These measures are backward-looking only, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ACS ZCTA housing profile adds supply context but not listing evidence. Of 11,281 housing units, the reported vacancy rate is 10.5%, while renters occupy 38.0% of occupied homes. The stock is weighted toward 7,780 single-family units versus 787 units in large multifamily structures. That composition and the area-wide vacancy measure may frame the available mix, but they cannot establish the condition, turnover, concession, rent, or availability of a particular unit. Likewise, the renter burden result is population-level survey evidence, not proof that any prospective resident will face the same payment pressure.
The cross-geography rent contrast is stark but remains contextual. By named scope, the City of Jackson context rent is $1,270.43, the Hinds County context rent is $1,305, and the Jackson, MS metro context rent is $1,489; each is a wider-area comparator below the ZIP index, not a ZIP substitute. Their lower readings show that the ZIP index is not simply the city, county, or metro reading. They do not turn broader conditions into unit-level evidence or resolve the difference between asking rent, survey gross rent, and HUD standards.
For-sale evidence presents a parallel, but separate, tension. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a median sold price of $249,944, up 4.1% year over year, with 110 homes sold and a median 15 days on market. Inventory is 100 homes and months of supply is 2.8. The average sale-to-list result is 98.4%; 23.4% sold above list. Those are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions. The price increase and abbreviated supply are directionally consistent with the positive asking-rent history, yet they do not settle the burden-versus-income tension. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 7.4%, a cross-source screening ratio only, without property-level economics or return meaning.
Several limits temper any property decision. ZORI is a ZIP-wide blended asking index; ACS is a timed five-year ZCTA survey; HUD is a standard; and Redfin is a resale observation. None identifies a unit's actual signed rent or economics. At the address level, check the current advertised rent against comparable live and recently withdrawn listings, confirm bedroom count and unit type, identify every mandatory fee and which utilities are included, and review lease length, concessions, condition, and availability date. For a potential purchase, verify actual sale and listing history, current marketing status, physical condition, required repairs, and any recurring ownership charges rather than transferring ZIP ratios to a property. Which address-specific facts remain after those source differences are reconciled?
","findings":[{"body":"The Zillow reading is a current blended asking-rent index, whereas the income comparison is a simple arithmetic screen and the ACS burden figure reflects surveyed renter households. A ratio below the selected threshold for the area's median income can coexist with widespread rent burden. This tension requires separating broad affordability arithmetic from actual household payment experience.","title":"Asking-rent screen conflicts with burden evidence"},{"body":"Bedroom figures should not be treated as observed asking rents. They are modelled estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP-wide Zillow index. This preserves the ladder's relative size steps but cannot reveal unit quality, supply by bedroom, amenities, lease terms, or whether an advertised rent includes utility charges. Direct unit comparison still needs live listing evidence.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"The history has a consistent positive same-month trajectory, but the latest growth rate trails its longer annualized rates. Monthly return movement has enough variation to make a single month less representative than a smooth trend would suggest. Complete history coverage improves measurement continuity, not certainty about future prices, tenants, lease outcomes, or property economics.","title":"Positive history comes with uneven monthly movement"},{"body":"Redfin's ZIP observation shows recent resale activity, relatively brief marketing time, and constrained months of supply alongside a rising median sold price. These data can be compared directionally with rent history, but they are not rental comparable transactions. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is a cross-source screening ratio and omits expenses, financing, condition, and unit-specific terms.","title":"Resale liquidity is a separate market signal"}],"risks":["The headline Zillow index combines rental types and captures asking rents, so an advertised unit can differ materially because of bedroom count, condition, furnishing, utilities, concessions, lease duration, or timing.","The matched ZCTA's ACS values are survey estimates for occupied renter homes over a multiyear period; they do not measure today's vacant listings, applicants, or signed lease terms.","High historical variability and an observed drawdown mean that the current index should be interpreted as a dated measurement. Historical growth and ranks do not predict the next observation.","Resale price, supply, marketing, and sale-to-list data describe transactions in the for-sale market. They cannot establish rental demand, purchase economics, or the value of an individual address."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow measures a typical observed ZIP asking-rent index across rental types at its stated date. ACS measures a five-year ZCTA survey median among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Different geography, population, timing, and rent definitions make a gap expected rather than contradictory.","q":"Why do current asking rent and ACS gross rent differ?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not a collection of asking rents. The estimates provide proportional size orientation only and should be checked against actual listings, unit terms, and included utilities.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents?"},{"a":"The exact same-month historical gains document positive past movement, and the latest growth rate remains positive despite moderation relative to longer intervals. However, the high-variability classification, monthly-return variability, and maximum drawdown justify caution around one reading. Coverage and national discovery ranks describe observed series quality and relative patterns; they do not forecast rents or recommend an investment.","q":"What historical conclusion is justified?"},{"a":"The Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP numbers are direct for-sale resale observations, not rental transactions. Median price, sales pace, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list behavior describe a separate market universe. Dividing annualized ZORI by sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio. It cannot substitute for address-level rents, costs, condition, ownership terms, or an appraisal.","q":"How should resale data be interpreted alongside rent?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1112.584253},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1124.738235},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1126.665356},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1130.66763},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1126.756677},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1123.580213},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1124.69005},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1135.636481},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1158.23872},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1156.862687},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1168.192444},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1171.55528},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1187.540236},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1183.541073},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1205.935015},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1227.069981},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1238.952594},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1247.033412},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1245.499559},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1262.080963},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1254.660531},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1263.622447},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1240.92943},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1252.463705},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1254.111289},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1286.446118},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1283.080023},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1290.675771},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1284.372643},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1282.782528},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1284.516178},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1296.402451},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1307.153095},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1313.162322},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1330.96152},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1349.773237},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1368.430553},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1364.98917},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1381.678322},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1380.938861},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1428.018582},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1412.026035},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1422.012349},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1379.398636},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1399.979752},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1404.930061},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1423.051139},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1429.908025},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1443.647136},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1460.512559},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1466.631363},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1464.352637},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1448.553159},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1479.616052},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1490.429801},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1531.970122},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1528.282191},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1536.603511},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1534.056429},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1532.192214},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1526.628008},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1523.721292},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1525.868116},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1540.676768}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1464.352637,"endRent":1540.676768,"change":0.052121414658947485,"cagr":0.052121414658947485},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1290.675771,"endRent":1540.676768,"change":0.1936977532368973,"cagr":0.060794987231375774},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1130.66763,"endRent":1540.676768,"change":0.3626256975270443,"cagr":0.06383754891667781}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03404713819053096,"annualizedVolatility":0.03630107878137701,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}