For 40356, Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,546 per month, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,154 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. ZORI is 34.0% above that survey median, yet this is not a pricing verdict: each source covers a different universe, property mix, and utility treatment. One is a current asking-rent index; the other is a backward-looking survey median of occupied renter homes. That distinction is the central constraint on comparison.
The history supports a positive but decelerated direction rather than a simple extrapolation. At the stated endpoint, exact same-month ZORI changes were 7.97% across 1 year, 8.26% annualized across 3 years, and 10.05% annualized across 5 years. Thus recent direction confirms the longer upward path, while its slower one-year pace breaks from the faster multi-year annualized pace. This record is classified high variability: annualized monthly-return variability is 4.21%, and the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown is 5.18%. Coverage is 100%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 54 for momentum, 2,679 for stability, and 843 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; high variability and weak relative stability mean a reader should place less confidence in any one current-month snapshot than in the full path.
Bedroom detail is available only as a model, which avoids falsely treating the index as a unit quote. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is $883 for a studio, $1,079 for one bedroom, $1,272 for two bedrooms, $1,743 for three, and $1,940 for four. Scaling ZIP ZORI with that local ladder produces modelled ZIP estimates of $1,073, $1,311, $1,546, $2,118, and $2,358, respectively. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; ZORI is 21.5% above the two-bedroom HUD standard. Use the ladder to understand the model’s relative sizing, not to infer the advertised rent of a particular apartment or house.
The income screen gives a second tension between a current index and household survey measures. The 30% required-income screen mechanically annualizes the ZIP index and produces $61,840, versus matched ZCTA median household income of $74,495. The same cross-source arithmetic puts asking rent at 24.9% of that income benchmark. It is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule, because household composition, actual income, rent terms, and utility responsibilities are not resolved here. Separately, the ACS survey says 39.5% of renter households paid at least the screen’s threshold; its gross-rent and burden concepts reflect survey definitions rather than today’s listings. That burden result indicates a survey distribution, subject to sampling uncertainty, and cannot establish affordability or burden for a particular unit or household.
The matched ZCTA’s housing evidence describes a renter share and stock mix rather than listing-level supply. Its vacancy rate is 5.5%, and 151 units were recorded vacant for rent; neither statistic proves that a particular unit is available, comparable, or currently advertised. Renter-occupied homes make up 32.5% of occupied housing. The structural tally includes 14,809 single-family units and 419 units in large multifamily structures, a composition measure rather than a count of active rental listings. These ACS-based estimates cannot reveal lease expirations, landlord pricing, concessions, conditions, or how many vacant-for-rent homes meet a given bedroom or budget specification. Treat vacancy as broad stock context and confirm availability at the property level.
Broader-context rents show little separation from the ZIP snapshot, but they must remain contextual. On the contextual Zillow rent metric, Nicholasville city is $1,546 when rounded to dollars, Jessamine County is $1,542, and the Lexington-Fayette, KY metro is $1,534; these are city, county, and metro context values, respectively, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. The first is effectively aligned with ZIP ZORI when rounded to dollars, while the county and metro readings are slightly lower. Those comparisons add geographic scale only: they do not reconcile ACS gross rent with ZORI, alter the bedroom model, indicate a specific property’s rent, or show why levels differ.
Decision-useful use requires retaining the labels and dates attached to each measure. Before relying on a listing comparison, verify the advertised asking rent, exact bedroom count, lease length, utility responsibility, recurring fees, concessions, availability date, and property location; then determine whether the listing is comparable with the rental types blended into ZORI. Confirm the applicable HUD ladder geography rather than assuming an administrative standard is a market quote, and distinguish a ZCTA survey boundary from a USPS delivery ZIP. Also check whether the listing’s terms make gross rent materially different from its headline rent. These steps address evidence limits without converting historical change, vacancy, modelled estimates, or burden shares into conclusions about a property. Which listing terms remain after like-for-like comparisons have been made?
","findings":[{"body":"ZORI is $1,546 in June 2026, while the matched ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,154. The 34.0% difference signals that current asking-rent indexing and the survey median should not be substituted for each other. ZORI blends rental types and reflects observed asking rents; ACS concerns occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities.","title":"Current asking index is not the survey median"},{"body":"Same-month change remains positive, but the most recent one-year rate is below the annualized three- and five-year rates. The history is complete and has a positive momentum discovery rank, yet it is classified high variability, shows a 5.18% maximum drawdown, and has a weak stability rank. The current ZORI value is therefore a measured snapshot with an uncertainty context, never a projection.","title":"History favors direction over endpoint precision"},{"body":"All bedroom figures were generated by applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI. The modelled studio-through-four-bedroom range provides a consistent relative scale, but it does not observe rents for actual studio, one-bedroom, or larger listings. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific administrative data rather than asking rent, so its comparison with ZORI requires retaining the distinction between a standard and a typical asking-rent index.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a model rather than measurement"},{"body":"ACS identifies a burdened share among renter households and a count of units classified vacant for rent, but neither dataset identifies the price, lease terms, utility treatment, condition, or availability of an individual listing. Vacancy is broad stock context, and burden is a household survey measure. A listing-level comparison still requires direct verification of rent, fees, bedroom count, location, and timing.","title":"Burden and vacancy do not describe a listing"}],"risks":["The matched ZCTA is a statistical boundary rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, so results may not align perfectly with every address, listing search filter, or postal label.","ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions. Combining them without preserving tenant status, utilities, bedroom standard, and timing can create false precision.","High historical variability and a recorded drawdown mean the current index should be read alongside its multi-year path; it cannot establish a future rent trajectory.","Vacancy and rent-burden evidence are aggregate measures. They do not establish present availability, affordability, condition, concessions, or payment terms for any specified rental unit."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types at its stated endpoint. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Different timing, occupants, utility treatment, and property mix mean the gap is descriptive, not a direct appraisal of any home.","q":"Why does the current index sit above ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the single ZORI benchmark with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. The HUD series is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Therefore, the figures provide a relative sizing framework only and cannot verify rent for a real listing in any bedroom category.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents?"},{"a":"The complete history records positive same-month gains at several horizons, but the latest annual rate is slower than the longer annualized measures. Its high-variability classification, return variability, drawdown, and weak stability discovery rank mean one endpoint is less representative of the full historical path. Those items are backward-looking observations, not forecast inputs or investment conclusions.","q":"How should historical variation change the reading of today’s figure?"},{"a":"Verify the advertised monthly rent, bedroom count, lease term, utility responsibility, recurring fees, concessions, availability date, and exact location of the listing. Then compare its terms to the ZORI concept and determine the relevant HUD geography. The aggregate ACS vacancy and burden measures cannot replace these property-level facts or determine a household’s outcome.","q":"What should be checked before comparing a specific listing with these data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":961.637455},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":994.094149},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1010.350108},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1001.670194},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":973.053316},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":968.555997},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":957.99329},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":984.725167},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1012.189119},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1045.663146},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1067.659497},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1077.691689},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1087.211508},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1079.666706},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1086.00768},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1091.887982},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1138.589624},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1144.788298},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1168.604392},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1152.13764},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1150.852979},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1138.404143},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1144.596108},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1154.589722},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1166.75195},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1175.297636},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1189.796126},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1199.34203},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1199.495869},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1216.353513},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1218.574488},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1232.910585},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1238.922866},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1262.185694},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1279.517521},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1278.98336},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1289.27288},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1296.557481},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1301.683984},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1320.009584},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1318.028454},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1337.785035},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1363.368399},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1375.973117},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1383.999701},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1370.795737},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1399.026723},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1412.36121},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1410.312525},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1393.685897},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1408.405097},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1417.112634},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1439.081525},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1428.151182},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1432.291635},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1439.640562},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1451.788579},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1473.626133},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1461.739604},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1470.900081},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1485.985708},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1515.59096},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1519.445066},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1522.050649},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1525.842073},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1542.027596},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1546.37963}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1432.291635,"endRent":1546.37963,"change":0.07965416554289928,"cagr":0.07965416554289928},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1218.574488,"endRent":1546.37963,"change":0.26900706130653873,"cagr":0.08264983215665422},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":957.99329,"endRent":1546.37963,"change":0.6141862851669868,"cagr":0.10050173253716799}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0518204705333688,"annualizedVolatility":0.04207081489844621,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}