In June 2026, ZIP 40601’s Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $1,151 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. On an exact same-month basis, the one-year change is +1.9%; it remains positive but is materially slower than the annualized 5.1% three-year and 6.0% five-year changes. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path in sign while breaking from its earlier pace. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. History has 100% coverage through the endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.4%, and the maximum drawdown was a 2.1% decline; this high-variability history makes a current index snapshot less certain than a smoother series. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 940 for momentum, 2,177 for stability, and 1,543 for balanced performance, with lower ranks higher.
Zillow’s asking-rent index must remain separate from the ACS rent measure. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $966. The ACS measure is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not a current asking-rent series. By contrast, ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The 19.2% spread is not a premium calculation because the measures use different universes and timing. The five-digit 40601 label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA label. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The shared label supports this match, but neither series validates a particular listing.
An income screen makes the income-and-burden tension visible without treating area medians as household outcomes. Applying 30% of income to the index produces an annual required income of $46,040. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $65,732, placing the annualized index amount at 21.0% of that all-household median. It is not renter-income data and cannot determine any applicant’s capacity. ACS counts 8,057 renter-occupied households, of which 3,278, or 40.7%, reported gross rent at or above the threshold. That aggregate burden result does not prove the burden of a particular unit.
As wider-scope context only, the City of Frankfort rental context is $1,151, the Franklin County rental context is also $1,151, and the Frankfort, KY metro rental context is $1,149. Their near alignment with the ZIP index indicates that these rounded area readings currently converge, not that their listings, households, or geographies are interchangeable. City, county, and metro values are wider-scope context only; they are not substitute ZIP-level observations or a basis for assigning a rent to an individual property. The comparison supplies a benchmark for scale, while the ZIP series remains the direct asking-rent evidence.
Bedroom labels require a different caution. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates, not measured bedroom rents: $845 for a studio, $929 for a one-bedroom, $1,151 for a two-bedroom, $1,499 for a three-bedroom, and $1,785 for a four-bedroom. The HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR reference is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Its local two-bedroom standard is $1,090, below the corresponding modelled figure because the model preserves HUD ladder relationships while anchoring to ZORI. The ladder is a consistent scenario tool, not evidence that listings transact, ask, or are available at those bedroom values.
Matched ACS stock figures report 24,298 housing units, a 6.0% vacancy rate, and renters accounting for 35.3% of occupied homes. Single-family units outnumber large multifamily units in this stock. These figures describe the ZCTA aggregate rather than a property’s layout or tenure arrangement. A vacancy rate combines several vacancy categories; it cannot establish that a particular home is open, advertised, priced at the index, or suitable for a given household. The stock and vacancy evidence therefore identifies scale and composition, not the availability or condition of a specific rental.
Source limits should govern any property-level reading. Zillow does not provide a specific unit’s advertised rent or utility package; ACS does not describe a current listing; and HUD does not measure asking rent. A property-level check needs the live advertised rent, stated bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, availability date, and confirmation that the address falls within the relevant geographic boundary. It also needs timing aligned to the data comparison. Direct verification keeps each comparison tied to the item being evaluated rather than to an area aggregate. No index, survey, administrative standard, burden statistic, or vacancy statistic establishes the price, availability, terms, or household burden of a particular property. Which listed details actually match the scope of the data used here?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP-level Zillow ZORI is $1,151 in June 2026. Its same-month one-year increase of 1.9% remains positive but trails the 5.1% three-year and 6.0% five-year annualized rates. Deceleration, rather than outright decline, is the central historical reading. Full history coverage does not remove the significance of 3.4% annualized monthly-return variability or the earlier 2.1% drawdown: the current index is a less settled snapshot than a low-volatility series.","title":"Growth has cooled within a still-positive history"},{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index and the ACS ZCTA median gross rent answer different questions. The $1,151 index sits 19.2% above the ACS $966 median, but ACS describes occupied renter homes across five survey years and includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than the same geography as a USPS delivery ZIP. The difference is a source-universe distinction, not proof of a rent premium for a particular listing.","title":"Zillow and ACS rent values have different universes"},{"body":"Scaling the ZIP index with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates, not observed bedroom rents. The sequence rises from $845 for a studio to $1,785 for four bedrooms, with $1,151 at two bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. Its role here is to set relative scaling, so the outputs cannot verify actual advertised, leased, or available rents by unit size.","title":"Bedroom figures are HUD-scaled models"},{"body":"The 30% income screen translates ZORI to $46,040 annually, but it is arithmetic rather than advice or a qualification rule. ACS reports 40.7% of renter households with gross rent at or above the threshold. Separately, the area’s 6.0% vacancy rate and stock mix are aggregates. Neither burden nor vacancy establishes affordability, availability, or terms for any individual property.","title":"Income screens and vacancy are not unit-level conclusions"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index rather than a record of signed leases or a specific bedroom category; a current value can differ from any property’s advertised rent, timing, and utility treatment.","ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Sampling uncertainty and its different geography and timing limit comparison with a current Zillow index.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards. The ZIP bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZORI with that ladder, so they cannot establish observed rents for studios or larger units.","Vacancy and rent-burden statistics are area aggregates. Neither figure proves that a particular dwelling is vacant, attainable, available for rent, or offered with specific lease terms, and neither establishes the household burden associated with that dwelling."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI captures a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS reports a five-year survey median among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The matched ZCTA is also a statistical area rather than the same thing as a delivery ZIP. Therefore the difference reflects incompatible scope, timing, and definitions, not a verified premium on a specific residence.","q":"Why can Zillow ZORI exceed ACS median gross rent in this ZIP?"},{"a":"The one-year same-month gain is positive, so it aligns in direction with the longer history. It is nevertheless below the annualized three-year and five-year gains, which identifies a slower recent pace. The high-variability designation, drawdown, and return variability mean this is backward-looking context for interpreting an index, not a prediction about future rents.","q":"Does the latest history signal continued growth or a break from the trend?"},{"a":"No. They are generated by applying local HUD bedroom relationships to overall ZIP ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative and bedroom-specific, and ZORI itself is blended across rental types. The resulting modelled amounts are useful for internally consistent comparison only; they do not observe advertised or signed rents for any bedroom count.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for units in 40601?"},{"a":"Area data cannot confirm a particular unit’s current price or availability. A property-level review would need its live advertised rent, stated bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, availability date, and location within the relevant ZIP geography. Those details determine whether comparison to the index, survey, HUD ladder, or income screen is even like-for-like.","q":"What must a property-level comparison confirm?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":790.414768},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":800.159872},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":800.916382},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":800.481772},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":786.885256},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":784.052937},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":799.058873},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":815.936578},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":832.286127},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":851.830536},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":858.845747},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":850.886131},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":851.014951},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":854.130041},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":881.790526},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":887.082988},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":892.965885},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":887.309992},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":885.34135},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":896.699769},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":912.62626},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":927.801325},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":931.358192},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":940.542419},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":939.838241},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":947.928353},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":939.308401},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":956.41852},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":972.224619},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":997.669375},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":995.02868},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":995.384768},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":986.366438},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":992.3537},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":991.488115},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1001.409369},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1011.039655},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1019.434846},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1020.240321},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1015.91179},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1014.977153},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1010.594846},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1023.805115},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1030.74044},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1039.985713},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1035.608184},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1042.90457},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1037.977613},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1038.005577},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1038.891184},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1066.476526},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1085.7827},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1099.095259},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1088.985639},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1093.950368},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1094.842235},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1109.193313},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1119.281639},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1130.172629},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1141.360635},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1150.286903},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1156.62317},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1147.202779},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1142.087922},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1139.929099},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1155.741955},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1156.194822},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1161.505656},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1155.899734},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1156.5927},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1151.265079}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":71,"firstPeriod":"2020-08-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":71,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1130.172629,"endRent":1151.265079,"change":0.01866303382224288,"cagr":0.01866303382224288},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":991.488115,"endRent":1151.265079,"change":0.16114864271469354,"cagr":0.051064270172509474},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":858.845747,"endRent":1151.265079,"change":0.3404794551541279,"cagr":0.060356816122629775}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02105518800588091,"annualizedVolatility":0.034387377550398335,"consecutiveReturnCount":70}}