At the June 2026 observation, Zillow ZORI for this market was $1,629, down 0.34% on the exact same-month comparison from a year earlier. The one-year retreat is the immediate tension in the record: it breaks, rather than confirms, the longer observed path, whose exact same-month annualized changes were gains of 2.47% across 3 years and 4.19% across 5 years. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it captures a market-level asking-rent signal rather than a lease quote for a defined unit. The cooling label therefore describes the latest backward-looking direction; it does not establish why rents moved, forecast the next reading, or constitute an investment conclusion.
The supplied record has full 100% coverage across 64 monthly observations and 63 consecutive monthly returns. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.01%, and maximum drawdown was -1.95%. In the transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, the stability rank was 135, momentum was 2,009, and the balanced measure was 1,071; lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or recommendations. Coverage supports continuity in the supplied series, while variability and drawdown limit the confidence warranted for any one current-rent snapshot or individual listing. The recent negative return should be read beside the multi-year record, not as a reversal confirmed by a single observation.
The five-digit label 43016 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a median gross rent of $1,570 for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities; that is a different universe than an asking-rent index. The supplied FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR local ladder sets its two-bedroom administrative standard at $1,920. The current ZORI sits 15.2% below that standard. HUD is bedroom-specific administrative policy data, not asking rent, while ACS is a survey result and ZORI is an observed asking-rent index. ACS describes existing occupied homes rather than newly marketed listings, which further keeps these measures separate.
Bedroom interpretation should begin with the ladder, not a claim that the index observed separate unit types. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the supplied local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,264 for a studio, $1,358 for one bedroom, $1,629 for two bedrooms, $1,951 for three bedrooms, and $2,189 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they preserve the HUD ladder's local relative spacing while anchoring its level to the ZIP-wide ZORI. They do not identify a current listing, a particular property's lease terms, or the number of units available at each size. The ladder is a standardized size comparison, not a substitute for bedroom-specific listing or transaction data.
An arithmetic screen puts the current monthly index at $65,160 of annual household income if 30% is devoted to rent. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $109,972, making the annualized asking-rent-to-income ratio 17.8%; it is an area-wide income benchmark, not a renter-income estimate. Among 8,755 renter-occupied households, ACS estimates 3,074, or 35.1%, faced gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. Because the burden measure is a survey aggregate, it cannot establish the affordability of a particular unit or the circumstances of any one household. The income and burden statistics also describe different household universes and should not be read as a distribution for a prospective renter.
The matched ZCTA's housing stock contains more single-family units than large-multifamily units, with both owner-occupied and renter-occupied homes in the aggregate. Its overall vacancy rate is 5.3%, and 483 vacant units were classified for rent. Neither figure proves that a given unit is available, discounted, habitable, or comparable. The mix identifies broad stock composition, not the size, tenure, or condition of an individual available property. In wider context only, Dublin city-context rent is $1,813, Franklin County context rent is $1,510, and Columbus, OH metro-context rent is $1,528. The ZIP's current index is below the city context and above the county and metro contexts; those wider geographies are comparison points, not substitutes for ZIP, ZCTA, or property-level evidence.
Interpretation remains limited by source timing, aggregation, and geography. ZORI blends rental types and is not a unit quote; ACS summarizes occupied renter homes over a survey window; and HUD's ladder is an administrative standard. Relevant property-level checks are the advertised base rent, exact bedroom classification, availability date, lease duration, included and excluded utilities, mandatory recurring fees, concession timing and conditions, and the property address relative to the market label. The aggregate vacancy and burden results cannot fill those gaps, and none of these details can be inferred from an area average. Does the particular listing's price, utilities, fees, term, bedroom label, and availability actually match the comparison being made?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $1,629, with a 0.34% exact same-month decline over the prior year. That recent cooling conflicts with, rather than extends, the 2.47% three-year and 4.19% five-year annualized gains. History is fully covered across 64 observations, but it remains a recorded trend, not a forecast, explanation, or investment signal.","title":"Cooling interrupted a positive multi-year path"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. ZORI is a ZIP-level blended observed asking-rent index. The matched ZCTA ACS result is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; a ZCTA is statistical and not a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD's bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative standard, not asking rent.","title":"The rent sources are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The supplied $1,264 through $2,189 studio-to-four-bedroom sequence is modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with local HUD ratios. It is not a set of measured bedroom rents or a count of available units. The $65,160 income figure merely annualizes the current index at a 30% share of income; it is arithmetic and neither advice nor an applicant qualification test.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, and the income screen is arithmetic"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA reports a 5.3% vacancy rate and 483 units vacant for rent. Those aggregate measures cannot show whether a particular home is available, its condition, or concessions. Wider context has Dublin rent above the ZIP's current index while Franklin County and Columbus metro context rent are below it; scope differences prevent direct substitution.","title":"Aggregate supply and burden do not describe a particular home"}],"risks":["Zillow's current index aggregates observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS gross rent covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities. Treating either as a unit-level quote can misstate a listing comparison.","The numerical match between the ZIP label and the ZCTA does not erase the geographic distinction: the ZCTA is statistical, not a USPS delivery area, so address-level mapping can differ.","The full historical series and reported variability still cannot forecast a lease renewal, future concession, or next month's index. Recent cooling also differs from the positive multiyear record.","Vacancy and rent-burden measures are aggregates with ACS survey uncertainty. They cannot establish a specific unit's availability, affordability for an applicant, building quality, included utilities, or final lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI at this ZIP is a typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types. The June 2026 figure summarizes a market signal and can be compared through time, but it is not a measured rent for a specific bedroom count, building, lease term, or availability date.","q":"What does the current Zillow ZORI figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent is a retrospective five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is a current asking-rent index blended across rental types. HUD FMR/SAFMR adds a separate administrative bedroom standard. Differences among the figures therefore reflect distinct universes and definitions, not a contradiction resolved by choosing one as a universal rent quote.","q":"Why do ACS, ZORI, and HUD show different rent figures?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are constructed by proportionally scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The income screen annualizes the current monthly index and divides by 30%; it is simple arithmetic. It does not assess a household's debts, assets, rent payment history, eligibility, or ability to qualify.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates and required-income figure produced?"},{"a":"Relevant property-level checks are the listing's base monthly rent, exact bedroom classification, lease term, availability date, included and excluded utilities, mandatory recurring fees, parking or other charges, and the timing and conditions of any concession. The aggregate ZIP, ZCTA, and HUD figures cannot supply those listing-specific terms.","q":"What listing details remain outside these area-level measures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1290.916382},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1300.612173},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1313.859687},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1326.588073},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1339.380781},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1348.763431},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1356.599294},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1371.902462},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1371.371355},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1374.888958},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1368.448116},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1393.506618},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1409.316157},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1429.836114},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1439.949579},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1449.797963},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1463.288679},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1467.21806},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1480.80546},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1475.829904},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1481.638144},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1482.129339},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1496.983658},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1499.17365},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1511.402074},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1510.210499},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1516.507987},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1513.847782},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1523.57465},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1523.546226},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1527.812863},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1520.536426},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1522.088392},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1537.204748},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1545.853189},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1556.601139},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1535.826622},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1546.60043},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1554.439437},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1566.632971},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1576.964193},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1594.105198},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1606.820819},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1617.490424},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1615.801129},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1615.403275},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1614.572139},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1627.115539},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1643.365536},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1650.053714},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1640.663763},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1634.503212},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1628.253951},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1623.562966},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1617.84878},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1622.642958},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1630.225189},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1630.553037},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1631.184762},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1621.790379},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1622.875361},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1617.978746},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1624.869508},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1628.916667}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1634.503212,"endRent":1628.916667,"change":-0.0034178856052319295,"cagr":-0.0034178856052319295},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1513.847782,"endRent":1628.916667,"change":0.0760108687070098,"cagr":0.024720802388580543},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1326.588073,"endRent":1628.916667,"change":0.2278993759655188,"cagr":0.04191563649230634}},"maxDrawdown":-0.019517506446459776,"annualizedVolatility":0.020059583721452095,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}