Rent and resale are separating in this ZIP. Zillow's June 2026 ZIP ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, is $1,400 per month. The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation instead reports a $217,451 median sold price, up 6.1% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sold price is 7.73%, but this is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The advancing resale price signal challenges the cooling rent pattern, while neither series supplies property-level economics.
History makes the difference clearer. In the Zillow ZIP ZORI series, exact same-month annualized changes were 0.8% over 1 year, 3.5% over 3 years, and 5.0% over 5 years. The latest direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the stronger longer path. This is a backward-looking measurement, neither a forecast nor an investment recommendation. History coverage is 97.4%; annualized monthly-return variability is 3.3%, and the observed maximum drawdown is -2.7%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,488 for momentum, 2,001 for stability, and 1,931 for the balanced measure, with lower rank stronger. That variability and drawdown argue for less confidence in any one current ZORI snapshot than a smooth long-run percentage alone might imply.
Comparison requires keeping the universes apart. The five-digit label 43204 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes, median gross rent was $1,281 and includes selected utilities, so it is not a current asking-rent quote; its lower level than ZORI is not a conflict. For wider geography only, the City of Columbus city-level rent context is $1,456.49, Franklin County's county-level rent context is $1,510, and the Columbus, OH metro-level rent context is $1,528; each is a wider-geography context value, not a ZIP measure.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than measured. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $1,088 for a studio, $1,174 for one bedroom, $1,400 for two bedrooms, $1,680 for three bedrooms, and $1,885 for four bedrooms. These values are not observed bedroom rents or listing comps. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; it supplies the relative ladder used for the scaling. The two-bedroom estimate matching the all-types ZORI reflects the chosen local ladder and index calibration, not evidence that every two-bedroom in the ZIP asks that amount.
Affordability produces a second tension. Applying the 30% screen arithmetically to the current index produces required annual income of $56,000; it is not advice, a household budget, or an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA's ACS median household income is $59,266, yielding an asking-rent-to-income screen of 28.3%, but the income estimate is survey-based and does not describe a particular renter. Among 8,904 occupied renter households, 4,159, or 46.7%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above that screen. This burden measure concerns occupied renter homes in ACS, while the ZORI screen concerns asking rent. It demonstrates an aggregate affordability constraint, not the burden, eligibility, or payment experience of any specific unit or household.
The housing base gives scale but not unit availability. The ACS ZCTA has 19,418 housing units and 1,800 vacant units, a 9.3% overall vacancy rate; 50.5% of occupied units are renter occupied. Its structure count includes 13,524 single-family units, while 370 vacant units are classified for rent. These stock and vacancy figures are survey-based, aggregate indicators, not a count of rentable listings or proof that a given unit is empty, appropriately priced, legally available, or comparable to the ZORI basket. They also should not be converted into an assertion about lease-up conditions, turnover, or the experience at a particular property.
Resale liquidity has to remain in Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale universe, not rental transactions. Alongside the price result above, Redfin records 160 homes sold, a 38-day median marketing time, 198 homes of inventory, and 3.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio is 98.48%, and 30.16% of sold homes closed above list. Those signals describe ZIP resale pricing, supply, and marketing only; they are not rental comps, rental availability, or property operating results. The tension is material: the observed price gain in the resale series coincides with a cooling latest Zillow rent change that breaks from the longer ZORI path. The for-sale price result confirms a positive resale price change, but challenges any reading of the rent history as a uniformly accelerating market. The two sources cannot settle why they diverge.
These datasets answer different questions and leave material limits. ZORI is an index, ACS estimates carry survey uncertainty, HUD is a standard, and Redfin's resale record is not an appraisal or rent comp. Before applying any ZIP screen to a property, concrete checks are the address's ZIP and ZCTA treatment; the dated asking rent and bedroom count; included utilities and lease terms; whether a listed vacancy is actually available; and the individual sale's condition, closing date, and list-price history. Also check whether a unit's rental type fits the blended ZORI universe. Which evidence remains after those property-level facts are separated from the ZIP-level snapshot?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's ZIP history shows a 0.8% exact same-month annual change, well below the 3.5% and 5.0% annualized comparisons over three and five years. At the same time, Redfin's direct resale median sold price rose 6.1%. These different data universes do not establish a common trend, but they make a simple acceleration interpretation unsupported.","title":"Cooling rent history meets firmer resale pricing"},{"body":"ZORI measures a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS records a five-year survey median of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR sets administrative bedroom standards. The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates take their proportions from the local HUD ladder, so they are modelled ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents, listing data, or household payment outcomes.","title":"The rent measures are not substitutes"},{"body":"The required-income result is arithmetic: applying 30% to the ZIP ZORI results in $56,000 annually. The matched ZCTA median household income is slightly higher, yet 46.7% of renter households have gross-rent burdens at or above the same threshold in ACS. This contrast identifies aggregate distributional pressure but cannot classify affordability for an applicant or a particular unit.","title":"Aggregate affordability evidence is mixed"},{"body":"Redfin reports for-sale activity in a direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation, including a median sold price, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It is not a rental transaction database. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screen; it excludes operating costs, financing, property condition, and transaction-specific detail.","title":"Resale activity is direct but separate from rentals"}],"risks":["The principal comparability risk is treating the current asking-rent index, ACS gross rent, HUD administrative standards, and Redfin resale observations as interchangeable prices. They use different populations, timing, and purposes.","The cooling label rests on backward-looking ZORI history with monthly-return variability and a prior drawdown. It does not indicate the next rent change, the behavior of a newly listed unit, or future resale pricing.","Aggregate ACS vacancy and rent-burden counts cannot establish that a particular property is empty, available for lease, utility-inclusive, affordable to a given household, or representative of a ZIP index.","The annualized ZORI-to-median-sale-price screen omits property-level sale terms and operating information. It must not be interpreted as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 figure is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP market identifier. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a property listing, a lease quote, a bedroom-specific measurement, or evidence about included utilities or current availability at an address.","q":"What does the current ZIP rent figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS does not observe the same universe as ZORI. It surveys occupied renter homes across the matched Census ZCTA over five years and reports median gross rent including selected utilities. ZORI is a current ZIP asking-rent index. The ZCTA is statistical geography, not a USPS delivery ZIP, so boundary and timing differences also remain.","q":"Why is ACS gross rent not the same as Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates constructed by scaling the all-types ZORI using the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey. Therefore the estimates do not show current listing rents, signed leases, or measured rents for any bedroom category.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"No. Dividing annualized ZORI by Redfin's median sold price forms a cross-source screening ratio only. Redfin's rolling three-month figures describe for-sale and resale transactions and marketing, whereas ZORI tracks asking rent. The ratio contains no property expenses, financing terms, unit condition, or transaction-specific income, so it cannot describe a property return.","q":"Does the ZORI-to-sale-price percentage describe a return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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