At June 2026, 43612's Zillow ZORI was $1,125 per month after a 4.5% one-year gain. That rise follows annualized same-month growth of 6.0% over three years and 7.2% over five, yet the for-sale record moves in the opposite direction. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation put median sold price at $111,975 and down 9.7% year over year. This is the core tension: asking-rent history remains positive, although decelerating, while median resale pricing weakened. These are backward-looking observations, not forecasts or investment recommendations; they show divergence between two market universes rather than a causal link.
The rent-history series is complete across 61 monthly observations and 60 consecutive monthly returns, with 100% coverage. Its classification as high variability matters even though annualized monthly-return variability is 3.5%: the current ZORI is well documented but should not be treated as an exact lease quote. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 2.1%, indicating that the historical declines recorded in this series were limited relative to its broader upward path. On transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranked 324 while stability ranked 2,206, where lower ranks are stronger. The slower one-year gain confirms continued rent growth but breaks from the faster longer-run pace, reducing confidence that the latest acceleration will persist.
The five-digit label 43612 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,028 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current asking-rent index is therefore 9.4% above that ACS measure, a difference consistent with their distinct populations and rent concepts. HUD's two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,076; it is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and should not be read as a ZIP lease observation.
The bedroom figures translate the ZIP-wide ZORI into modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $804 for a studio, $857 for one bedroom, $1,125 for two bedrooms, $1,443 for three bedrooms, and $1,520 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD ladder ranges from $769 for a studio to $1,454 for four bedrooms, which supplies the relative bedroom spacing. This method makes the size pattern transparent, but it does not establish what any available unit rents for. Actual rents can differ with unit condition, lease terms, included utilities, and the mix of listings contributing to the broad index.
A 30% required-income screen converts the current monthly ZORI into $45,000 of annual gross income. That arithmetic benchmark sits below the matched ZCTA's $50,728 median household income, and the index-to-income comparison is 26.6%. Neither measure is an applicant qualification rule or advice, because household income is an ACS survey measure while ZORI represents typical observed asking rents. The burden data adds an important distributional constraint: 2,535 of 5,509 renter households, or 46.0%, were estimated to spend at least the threshold share of income on rent. That aggregate burden rate does not show affordability for a particular household or unit, but it limits how much assurance a ZIP-wide income comparison can provide.
The matched ZCTA contains 13,482 housing units, with 9,550 in single-family structures. Renters occupy 45.4% of occupied homes, so both rental and owner-occupied housing are material parts of the area-level stock. The overall vacancy rate is 10.0%, while 566 units are categorized as vacant for rent. Those measures describe housing-unit status in the ACS five-year evidence universe, not a live count of units presently available at the ZORI level. They also do not prove that a particular property is vacant, rentable, well maintained, or accessible to a prospective renter. The stock profile gives context for interpreting broad rent and burden measures, rather than property-specific evidence.
In the City of Toledo context, the asking-rent index is $1,125.10; in Lucas County context it is $1,176; and in the Toledo, OH metro context it is $1,276. These city, county, and metro figures are wider-geography context only, not substitutes for the ZIP-level Zillow observation. The ZIP is effectively aligned with the city figure and below the county and metro figures, which frames its current ZORI as locally similar but below broader reference areas. That comparison does not explain why rents differ, and it does not change the separate ACS, HUD, or Redfin definitions used elsewhere in this report.
Redfin's direct ZIP resale evidence recorded 117 homes sold, a median 49 days on market, and inventory of 87 homes after a 19.3% increase. Months of supply stood at 2.3, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 99%, signals that belong solely to the for-sale market rather than rental transactions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin median sold price produces a 12.1% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a measure of property-level economics or return. The resale price decline and greater inventory challenge the otherwise positive rent-history screen, while the limited supply and near-list sale pricing show that resale conditions are not captured by price change alone. Before applying any ZIP aggregate to an address, confirm bedroom count, utilities, lease terms, actual asking price, condition, listing timing, and transaction-specific sale records.
","findings":[{"body":"The asking-rent history shows positive same-month growth across one-, three-, and five-year horizons, but the latest annual change is slower than the longer-period annualized measures. Complete series coverage supports confidence that the historical path is observed rather than inferred. High variability and a weak stability discovery rank still mean that a single current ZORI reading should be interpreted as an index estimate, not a precise unit-level market quote.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI describes typical observed asking rents across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard. The gap among these measures should not be treated as an error or an arbitrage signal because each source covers a different population, timing framework, and purpose.","title":"Rent evidence uses three different concepts"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on ZIP ZORI is below the matched ZCTA median household income, but the renter burden estimate remains substantial. This contrast means that a ZIP-level median-income comparison cannot establish affordability for individual households. Income variation, household composition, rent paid, utility obligations, and survey uncertainty all remain outside the simple required-income calculation.","title":"Affordability indicators are mixed"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale data shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price alongside higher inventory, even as asking-rent history remains positive. That divergence is decision-relevant because it prevents a reader from treating rent momentum as a complete housing-market summary. Resale liquidity measures, sale-to-list results, and rental asking-rent measures remain separate evidence streams and should not be merged into property economics.","title":"Resale conditions challenge the rent narrative"}],"risks":["ZORI is a broad asking-rent index and can differ materially from an address-level rent because unit size, condition, utilities, lease structure, concessions, and active-listing composition are not specified.","ACS rental, income, burden, vacancy, and housing-stock measures are matched-ZCTA five-year survey estimates, so they are not current leasing counts and cannot identify conditions at a specific building.","Redfin resale indicators reflect direct ZIP for-sale transactions over a rolling period, not rental transactions; sold-price movement and inventory should not be used as evidence of a particular rental unit's economics.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZIP ZORI and local HUD spacing, so it is useful for size-relative screening but does not measure observed asking rents for available studio through four-bedroom units."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences can arise from timing, occupied versus advertised homes, rental mix, and the treatment of utility costs.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The screen divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the stated rent-share threshold to create an arithmetic gross-income reference point. It is not lending guidance, tenant-screening policy, advice, or an applicant qualification rule. Household-specific affordability depends on actual income, debts, household size, utilities, subsidies, lease terms, and the rent of the individual unit.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"The history measures describe past monthly changes in the ZIP asking-rent index, not a forecast. Complete coverage improves confidence that the measured historical path is represented, but the high-variability classification and weaker stability rank caution against treating one current index value as a durable or unit-specific rent conclusion. The slower recent growth also differs from the longer-run annualized path.","q":"How should the rent-history variability be interpreted?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin's median sold price and is only a cross-source screening ratio. It does not incorporate financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, operating expenses, concessions, unit condition, or realized rent. Consequently, it cannot establish property economics, net income, expected performance, or a transaction-specific outcome.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio show?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":795.986545},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":807.982886},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":805.011298},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":821.210832},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":827.556938},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":853.354758},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":859.334217},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":877.658693},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":861.377829},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":869.498612},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":877.506997},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":897.023104},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":921.451631},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":925.982212},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":929.902008},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":917.829899},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":923.87217},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":923.354649},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":939.061768},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":931.721766},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":959.005529},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":962.649554},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":964.981756},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":954.634779},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":944.628797},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":960.850731},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":975.137253},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":987.940174},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":987.772998},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":983.663227},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":990.753813},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":994.639417},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":994.722061},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":995.613665},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1016.462117},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1025.084697},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1032.518956},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1032.277523},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1043.270703},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1045.996964},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1047.34539},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1043.496912},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1041.509025},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1053.360111},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1054.441523},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1062.70675},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1062.083082},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1076.685539},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1076.461438},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1079.54956},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1075.390481},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1081.06946},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1090.555969},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1106.729816},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1112.447242},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1113.344906},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1117.909051},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1120.854477},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1120.426571},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1116.832864},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1125.117172}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":61,"firstPeriod":"2021-06-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":61,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1076.461438,"endRent":1125.117172,"change":0.045199699945034144,"cagr":0.045199699945034144},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":944.628797,"endRent":1125.117172,"change":0.19106804236034747,"cagr":0.060015438946942945},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":795.986545,"endRent":1125.117172,"change":0.41348767647825,"cagr":0.07166341621257222}},"maxDrawdown":-0.021091547973265623,"annualizedVolatility":0.034707334768286933,"consecutiveReturnCount":60}}