The sharpest decision tension is in the direct ZIP resale record rather than the rent index. Redfin’s rolling-three-month for-sale observation reported a $299,932 median sold price, 8.28% lower year over year, even as the contemporaneous asking-rent series increased. It recorded 56 homes sold, a 41-day median marketing time, and 120 homes of inventory, or 6.6 months of supply. Sellers received 96.68% of list price on average, with 12.98% of homes selling above list. Those are direct for-sale signals of price, liquidity, and negotiating outcomes, not rental transactions, rent comparables, or evidence about any individual rental asset.
Zillow’s current $1,706 ZORI is the ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types; it is neither a lease ledger nor a bedroom-specific measurement. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,476, so the asking index stood 15.6% higher. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s asking-rent index. The identical five-digit label makes 44113 both a Zillow market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. These values therefore provide parallel, not interchangeable, views.
HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not an asking-rent observation. The local HUD ladder supplies the scaling inputs: its two-bedroom standard is $1,279, and each estimate applies that bedroom’s HUD ratio to the ZIP ZORI. On that basis, the modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,244 for a studio, $1,411 for one bedroom, $1,706 for two, $2,196 for three, and $2,348 for four. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; the calculation carries the overall index’s rental-type blend into each bedroom result. Any departure of a listing from this ladder can reflect unit terms the packet does not observe.
The 30% required-income screen annualizes the ZORI and yields $68,240, compared with a matched-ZCTA median household income of $71,941. Expressed as an arithmetic share, the current asking index equals 28.5% of that income measure. It is not advice and it is not an applicant-qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 3,057 renter households, or 36.2%, had gross-rent burden at or above the stated threshold. That observed-household burden is more elevated than the simple index-to-median-income calculation, but the two measures have different universes and cannot prove a given household’s burden or a particular unit’s affordability.
The ZCTA housing picture emphasizes a renter-heavy stock rather than a unit-by-unit availability reading. Of 13,219 housing units, 2,062 were vacant, a 15.6% vacancy rate. The survey indicates that renter-occupied units outnumbered owner-occupied units, while large multifamily structures outnumbered single-family structures. Those are inventory-composition facts, not rent comparisons. ACS also includes a vacant-for-rent category, but vacancy describes a category at survey collection, and no field here establishes a specific unit’s condition, readiness, asking terms, lease-up status, or likely concession. It should not be converted into proof that a renter can obtain a particular home at the index level.
Backward-looking same-month Zillow history confirms an upward path: ZORI rose 4.07% across 1 year, 3.79% annualized across 3 years, and 5.33% annualized across 5 years. The latest gain therefore continues rather than breaks the longer path, although it is below the five-year pace. History coverage was 100%. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 634 for momentum, 2,642 for stability, and 1,549 for the balanced score; lower ranks place higher. High variability is supported by 4.08% annualized monthly-return variability, which reduces confidence in a one-date rent snapshot. Separately, the maximum 3.70% drawdown records the deepest peak-to-trough pullback. These are retrospective measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Comparison values remain wider-context benchmarks and must be named at that scope: Cleveland city context rent was $1,429.78, Cuyahoga County context rent was $1,465, and Cleveland-Elyria, OH metro context rent was $1,474. Each is below the ZIP asking-rent index, but none is a ZIP listing set, a ZCTA survey estimate, or a direct resale comp. Annualizing the ZIP ZORI and dividing by Redfin’s median sold price gives a 6.83% cross-source screening ratio only. The ratio puts the rent-price screen beside the resale decline, yet it cannot resolve the tension between rising index rent and softer sold prices because it excludes property-specific costs, transaction differences, and source timing. It is not a measure of property-level economics.
The evidence has fixed boundaries. ZORI is a blended asking index, ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey, HUD is an administrative standard, the history is retrospective, and Redfin is a rolling-three-month ZIP resale record. A property-level file would still need current observed asking comparables matched by bedroom and unit characteristics, lease duration, utility inclusions, concessions, availability date, and whether the quoted figure reflects an active offering. It would also need sale comparables tied to property type and transaction date rather than the ZIP median alone. Confirming those items would test whether the modelled ladder and aggregate screens travel to the actual unit without treating vacancy, burden, or resale averages as unit facts. Which unit-specific asking terms and sale comparables remain after those evidence boundaries are held fixed?
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record showed a median sold-price decline while Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index rose over the latest year. This is the central cross-market tension: sale observations, list-to-sale behavior, and rent asks do not move in lockstep. The supplied evidence does not identify a causal link or translate either trend into property-level economics.","title":"Rent and resale signals diverge"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI reports a blended typical asking level. ACS provides a five-year estimate of median gross rent in occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR provides administrative bedroom standards. Scaling the index with the HUD ladder produces modelled bedroom estimates only, so none of the three should be substituted for a signed rent on a particular unit.","title":"Three rent frameworks answer different questions"},{"body":"The simple 30% screen puts annualized ZORI below the matched-ZCTA median household income threshold, while 36.2% of renter households were reported rent burdened at or above 30%. The apparent gap is not a contradiction: one is a ratio built from an asking index and aggregate income, while the other is an ACS occupied-household burden estimate. Neither is an applicant decision rule.","title":"Affordability measures split by evidence universe"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI changes were positive over the one-, three-, and five-year windows, so the most recent direction continues the historical upward path. Yet the high-variability classification, 4.08% annualized variation, and a 3.70% maximum drawdown mean that one current reading should receive less weight than the broader path. Full coverage helps historical completeness, not predictive certainty.","title":"History supports direction but not snapshot precision"}],"risks":["The Zillow index blends rental types and does not identify unit size, lease term, concessions, included utilities, or the availability status of a particular listing, limiting direct property use.","The ZCTA is a statistical geographic approximation rather than the USPS delivery ZIP, so ACS population, income, housing, and burden estimates need not map exactly to Zillow’s market boundary.","Although the rent history has full coverage, its high variability and recorded drawdown show that a single current index value may be less stable than a multiyear direction measure.","Redfin resale observations cover sales in a rolling three-month window, whereas ZORI tracks asking rent; their price-to-rent screening ratio omits property-specific costs, terms, and transaction heterogeneity."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow’s $1,706 ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS’s $1,476 median gross rent is a 2024 five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Its ZCTA geography is statistical, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The series answer different questions and need not align.","q":"Why are the Zillow and ACS rent figures different evidence rather than a direct conflict?"},{"a":"The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Each begins with the ZIP ZORI and scales it using the corresponding local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ratio relative to the two-bedroom standard. This preserves the HUD bedroom ladder while carrying forward the ZORI’s blended rental-type composition.","q":"How were the bedroom rent figures calculated?"},{"a":"The same-month history shows positive one-, three-, and five-year changes, so recent direction continues the broader upward path. However, the high-variability designation and maximum drawdown show that the path included meaningful movement and pullbacks. Full coverage improves completeness of the record, but the measurements remain backward-looking rather than predictive.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current asking-rent snapshot?"},{"a":"Redfin reports direct ZIP resale outcomes—median sold price, sales count, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list measures—not rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates the stated cross-source screening ratio. Because the numerator and denominator come from distinct market measures and the calculation has no property-level expense fields, it cannot substitute for a unit-level economic analysis.","q":"What does the Redfin resale record and rent-price screen establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1126.55381},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1157.119507},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1218.880767},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1242.576021},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1231.705898},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1233.534382},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1234.864732},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1240.208653},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1239.030629},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1228.230959},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1245.153929},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1271.93868},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1304.638691},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1305.387077},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1268.845969},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1262.426116},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1266.129446},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1274.14376},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1270.009016},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1280.592718},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1282.33333},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1311.367637},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1308.827476},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1315.061899},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1287.354167},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1275.559801},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1285.502716},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1295.466785},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1294.662891},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1304.715094},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1290.827759},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1309.64158},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1297.805467},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1282.313844},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1269.06675},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1266.460798},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1273.207972},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1277.528187},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1303.736177},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1303.936199},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1321.788167},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1315.431659},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1362.450855},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1353.238168},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1385.873397},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1378.858293},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1412.012763},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1409.262837},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1423.842812},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1444.640647},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1456.680685},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1479.021435},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1472.435789},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1481.749306},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1484.433501},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1506.564609},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1517.541367},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1529.531391},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1514.793488},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1512.005552},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1508.001948},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1494.800966},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1504.66829},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1504.462462},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1529.160007},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1525.745714},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1520.782398},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1516.733889},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1520.054985},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1524.811426},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1533.803671},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1562.676694},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1579.352979},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1591.041942},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1561.820994},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1575.110033},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1588.78835},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1625.232377},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1624.900205},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1625.994821},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1614.97935},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1611.793231},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1629.275731},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1635.067515},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1653.22192},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1641.393017},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1652.054841},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1638.005909},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1638.089287},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1639.102572},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1652.766046},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1662.588336},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1678.686804},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1688.684152},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1684.593195},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1677.973091},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1667.844773},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1684.479265},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1699.558559},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1714.27383},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1713.499826},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1705.785346}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":102,"firstPeriod":"2018-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":102,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1639.102572,"endRent":1705.785346,"change":0.040682490003438154,"cagr":0.040682490003438154},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1525.745714,"endRent":1705.785346,"change":0.11800107340822596,"cagr":0.0378806301574357},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1315.431659,"endRent":1705.785346,"change":0.2967494999297411,"cagr":0.0533464061158313}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03695727253367864,"annualizedVolatility":0.040810385310456956,"consecutiveReturnCount":101}}