The principal tension in this ZIP is that direct for-sale evidence accelerated far more sharply than the rent index. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending in June 2026, median sold price was $441,900, up 19.43% year over year. Zillow’s June ZIP ZORI was $1,985, up 3.54%. That leaves an annualized ZORI-to-median-sale-price screen of 5.39%, a cross-source screening ratio only, rather than a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The contrast does not establish a relationship between rents and sales, but it does challenge any reading of one current rent level as moving in lockstep with the resale market.
Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a record of paid rent or a bedroom-specific quote. The five-digit label 44122 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,602 median gross rent with a $85 margin of error for occupied renter homes, and that measure includes selected utilities. It sits 23.91% below ZORI, a universe difference rather than evidence of a rent change. Annualizing the current ZORI at a 30% income screen produces $79,400; this arithmetic is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. Against the ZCTA’s $101,230 median household income, the index equals 23.53% of that broad household-income comparator.
History puts the slower current rent gain in context. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 3.54% over one year, 3.95% over three years, and 5.01% over five years. Thus the recent direction confirms the longer upward path, but its pace has decelerated from both longer annualized rates. The high-variability classification is supported by 4.33% annualized monthly-return variability and a maximum drawdown of -4.93%. Coverage is 100%, so missing months do not explain that pattern. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 687 for momentum, 2,714 for stability, and 1,653 for balanced performance; lower ranks indicate higher placement. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. Because the monthly path has been variable, a reader should place less confidence in any single ZORI snapshot than a stable series would justify.
Bedroom sizing should not be mistaken for observed bedroom rents. The resulting modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,448 for a studio, $1,642 for one bedroom, $1,985 for two, $2,555 for three, and $2,732 for four bedrooms. They scale the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder in the packet. HUD’s ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $1,279. The modelled two-bedroom figure is 55.20% above that HUD standard, but neither number measures a particular unit’s advertised rent, lease terms, condition, or included utilities. The ladder is a scaling device, not a set of rental comparables.
ACS also supplies housing-stock and occupancy context, not an availability feed. The matched ZCTA contains 17,357 housing units, including 10,240 single-family units and 5,163 units in large multifamily structures. Its 7.93% vacancy rate and 549 vacant-for-rent units describe survey classifications; they do not establish that a particular unit is currently available, rentable, or comparable to ZORI. Renter-occupied homes total 6,109, equal to a 38.23% renter share. Of the survey’s renter households, 2,405, or 39.37%, were recorded as spending 30% or more of income on gross rent. That burden measure is useful distributional context, but it is not proof that any applicant or any individual property is burdened.
For wider context only, the Shaker Heights city-scope rent value is $1,705.89, the Cuyahoga County–scope rent value is $1,465, and the Cleveland-Elyria, OH metro-scope rent value is $1,474. Each is below the ZIP ZORI, but city, county, and metro values are wider context rather than ZIP rental comparables. They also do not replace the matched ZCTA’s survey universe or its household-income screen. The differences identify where the ZIP index sits across reporting scopes; they do not establish why the scopes differ, how a particular building is priced, or whether a resident experiences the area-wide median.
Resale liquidity is best kept in Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale universe. It recorded 133 homes sold, a median 21 days on market, 121 homes of inventory, 2.8 months of supply, and an average sale-to-list ratio of 100.51%. Those are resale transaction and listing measures, not rental transactions, vacancy, operating costs, or rent comparables. Together with the sharp reported sale-price change, the transaction pace documents observed resale flow while challenging use of the rent-to-income arithmetic as a proxy for purchase-market conditions. It also reinforces the earlier tension: the current rent index and the resale median changed at materially different rates, while the rent history itself is variable.
These evidence sets cannot answer what a specific home will rent for, sell for, or cost to occupy. A property-level review should check current address-level advertisements for the matching bedroom count and unit type, quoted utilities, concessions, lease length, availability status, and lease date; it should separately review the addressed property’s sale, list, and pending history rather than substitute ZIP medians. Confirming physical configuration and the current owner’s stated terms is also necessary before comparing any unit with the modelled ladder. The packet supplies no unit condition, amenity, lease, utility-allocation, or transaction-specific rental record. Which current unit-level rent and listing records would confirm whether these area-level screens apply to the property being evaluated?
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median was $441,900, with a 19.43% year-over-year change, while Zillow ZORI was $1,985 and rose 3.54%. The resulting 5.39% annualized rent-to-price screen is a cross-source comparison, not property-level economics. This disconnect makes resale evidence a useful counterweight to interpreting the current asking-rent index alone.","title":"Sale prices outran the rent index"},{"body":"ACS reports a $1,602 median gross rent among occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, including selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a blended asking-rent index. The 23.91% gap is therefore a source-universe difference, not a matched-unit rent change. The ZCTA is statistical geography and does not duplicate a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Survey and asking-rent measures differ"},{"body":"Exact same-month ZORI growth remained positive over the stated one-, three-, and five-year periods, but the newest annual rate was below the longer annualized rates. With 4.33% annualized monthly-return variability and a -4.93% maximum drawdown, historical movement does not make one current index reading precise. The national discovery ranks describe history only and are not forecasts.","title":"Positive history carries high variability"},{"body":"The ZCTA’s renter share, vacancy classifications, and rent-burden distribution provide useful scale for the stock, but none identifies an available apartment, an individual household’s finances, or the rent of a particular home. The bedroom figures are modelled from ZORI with HUD scaling, while HUD’s standard is administrative. Address-level advertisements and lease terms remain necessary checks.","title":"Aggregate occupancy does not establish unit availability"}],"risks":["ZORI combines rental types into a typical asking-rent index, so it can differ from current quotes for a given bedroom, property condition, utility package, lease term, or concession.","The Census figure is a five-year ZCTA survey with sampling error and selected utilities, while the ZCTA is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP.","HUD’s bedroom-specific standard is administrative and the listed bedroom amounts are modelled scaling outputs, so neither source verifies advertised rent, lease terms, utility responsibility, or a unit’s condition.","Redfin’s figures cover direct rolling-three-month resale activity, not rental transactions or property operating statements; median sale price and sale-to-list behavior cannot supply property-specific income, costs, or occupancy."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It reports a median among a different stock and time framework, so the comparison shows a scope gap rather than a unit-for-unit rent change.","q":"Why do ZORI and ACS gross rent differ in this report?"},{"a":"Treat them strictly as modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling the overall ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease quotes, or rental comparables. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so actual listings must verify each unit’s layout, utility inclusion, terms, and availability.","q":"How should the bedroom amounts be used?"},{"a":"High annualized monthly-return variability and the recorded maximum drawdown mean that the ZORI series has not moved in a smooth path. The positive latest annual change confirms direction but trails the longer annualized rates. Consequently, the current index is a useful benchmark with limited precision, not a forecast or an investment conclusion.","q":"What does high variability change about the history?"},{"a":"It simply divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, combining an asking-rent index with a direct rolling-three-month for-sale median. It omits the property’s actual rent, purchase price, operating costs, taxes, financing, vacancy, and lease terms. It is only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot describe property-level cash flow.","q":"What is the rent-to-price screen intended to show?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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