ZIP 45040 enters the latest June endpoint with Zillow’s ZORI at $2,086 per month. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market signal rather than a quoted rent for a particular home. The index was up 1.9% on an exact same-month basis from the prior June. That positive reading establishes that the latest index is still rising, while the rate of increase, assessed against the longer record below, is the central tension. It should not be read as a lease offer, a utility-inclusive total, or evidence that every available property commands the index.
The full history points to cooling rather than a reversal. Exact same-month annualized gains were 1.9% over 1-year, 4.5% over 3-years and 6.1% over 5-years through June 2026; that first reading is therefore the actual June-to-June change, not a forecast. Recent direction confirms rent growth but breaks from the faster longer-run pace. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.7%, and maximum drawdown was −1.6%; those limited measured movements support some confidence in the broad current index level but not in a particular property’s price. Coverage is 100% across 103 observations and 102 consecutive monthly returns. For transparent national discovery among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranks 1,005, stability ranks 974, and balanced rank 682, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not an investment recommendation or projection.
Zillow and Census figures describe different universes, which helps explain a sizable level gap. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,811 among occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is not a current asking-rent series. Against that survey measure, the $2,086 ZORI is $275, or 15.2%, higher. The ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even though this five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. Neither series converts the other into a unit-specific rent: timing, sampled occupied homes, utility treatment, and the index’s blended rental types all remain material.
HUD supplies a separate administrative benchmark, not asking rent. Its FY2026 local bedroom-specific FMR ladder provides the scale for the ZORI-based estimates. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,480 for a studio, $1,624 for one bedroom, $2,086 for two bedrooms, $2,754 for three bedrooms, and $3,042 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and the HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative standards rather than observed listings. The alignment of the two-bedroom model with the overall index is a scaling result, not proof that a typical two-bedroom is available at that amount.
An arithmetic 30% screen places annual income needed to cover twelve months of the current index at $83,440. That compares with the ZCTA’s ACS median household income of $133,240, and the index annualized is 18.8% of that median. The calculation is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule: it omits taxes, debts, household composition, utility treatment, deposits, and a property’s actual lease price. Within the ACS renter universe, 1,209 of 4,907 renter households, or 24.6%, report gross-rent burden at or above the threshold. That burden statistic describes surveyed renter households and cannot establish the burden, availability, or suitability of any particular apartment or house.
Supply evidence contextualizes rather than resolves that rent premium. The ZCTA reports 22,719 housing units and 719 vacant units, a 3.2% vacancy rate, including 311 units vacant for rent; renters account for 22.3% of occupied homes, while single-family units make up most of the stock. As wider context only, Mason city context rent is $2,097, Warren County context rent is $1,949, and Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN metro context rent is $1,583. Thus the ZIP index sits essentially at the city context level but above the county and metro context levels; these wider-area figures are comparisons, not substitutes for a ZIP listing measure. Vacancy counts do not identify the quality, bedroom count, rent, or immediate availability of a particular unit.
The remaining uncertainty is property-level and cannot be resolved by these aggregates. A listing review needs the advertised rent and concessions, confirmed bedroom count and square footage, lease term, move-in date, deposit and recurring fees, which utilities are included, and whether the address falls inside the market geography used by the index. It also needs a comparison of the asking price with contemporaneous available properties of similar configuration, rather than with the modelled ladder alone. The ZORI endpoint, ACS survey period, HUD fiscal-year standard, and wider-area contexts use different timing and definitions. Does the specific property’s verified all-in monthly cost and availability support the conclusion suggested by this broad ZIP snapshot?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s latest ZIP index remains above its year-earlier level, but the exact same-month gain is below the corresponding three- and five-year annualized rates. The record’s complete coverage, limited annualized return variability, and modest maximum drawdown make the broad history useful for framing direction. They do not establish future growth, a property value, or a guaranteed lease rent.","title":"Cooling within a still-positive index"},{"body":"ZORI and ACS should be read side by side, not substituted. ZORI is a ZIP-level observed asking-rent index across blended rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The matched ZCTA is a statistical geography, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Those timing, universe, and utility differences mean the gap does not identify a listing error.","title":"Current asking signal exceeds ACS gross rent"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured rents by bedroom, and their equality with the overall index at the two-bedroom point follows the calculation. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard used as the scaler; it is not a measure of market asking rent.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled, not observed"},{"body":"The ZCTA’s aggregate vacancy rate, count of units vacant for rent, and owner-occupied majority describe the broad inventory backdrop only. Mason city, Warren County, and the Cincinnati metro are wider contexts whose rent benchmarks differ from the ZIP. Neither vacancy, renter burden, nor those comparisons can prove that a particular home is vacant, affordable, appropriately configured, or available on stated terms.","title":"Inventory and context cannot settle a listing decision"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended ZIP-level index, so applying it to a specific address can misstate the actual rent when bedroom count, condition, concessions, utilities, or lease term differ.","The ACS values are from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a ZCTA, whereas the current index captures asking-rent observations; date, geography, and utility treatment differ.","HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard and the bedroom outputs are scaled models. They should not be treated as measured bedroom rents or as advertised availability.","Vacancy and burden are aggregate survey measures. They cannot establish a unit’s vacancy, eligibility, all-in cost, condition, or suitability without current listing-level documentation and verification."],"qa":[{"a":"The 1-year figure is the exact June-to-June ZORI change through the stated endpoint. It is positive, so the index did not decline over that matched interval. Because it is below the 3-year and 5-year annualized changes, the evidence indicates cooling in the pace of growth, not a forecast of the next period.","q":"What does the 1-year history result say?"},{"a":"The measures are intentionally not interchangeable. The ACS figure comes from the matched ZCTA’s five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a ZIP-level observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Their dates, populations, utility treatment, and geographic constructs differ, so the numerical spread cannot identify the appropriate rent for a specific dwelling.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than the ZORI?"},{"a":"Each bedroom estimate starts with the ZIP ZORI and applies the relative position of that bedroom in the local HUD FMR or SAFMR ladder. This preserves a common ZIP index while distributing it across bedroom sizes. The outputs are modelled monthly estimates, not measured asking rents, HUD rent observations, availability counts, or lease quotes.","q":"How were bedroom estimates made?"},{"a":"For an individual listing, the unresolved evidence includes the actual advertised price, all recurring fees, concessions, utilities, lease duration, move-in timing, bedroom count, floor area, condition, and current availability. Confirming the address’s inclusion in the relevant geography and comparing similar active properties prevents broad ZIP, ZCTA, HUD, or metro statistics from being mistaken for the listing’s terms.","q":"What property-level evidence remains necessary?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP 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