ZIP 45202 has a central cross-market tension at the June 2026 Zillow endpoint: its $1,633 monthly ZIP ZORI has slowed, while the direct resale record later in this report shows much faster price movement. These are separate evidence universes. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a lease-specific quote, a utility-inclusive household payment, or a bedroom measurement. The label is simultaneously a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, and it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That boundary and source distinction matters before interpreting one headline rent as the experience of every listed or occupied home.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey instead reports a $1,584 median gross rent for occupied renter homes. Gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow’s index represents asking rent across a different universe and is not a survey median. The ZORI reading is 3.09% above the ACS figure, a small source-to-source gap that does not make the measures interchangeable. ACS describes surveyed occupied renter households over its five-year window; Zillow describes a current ZIP asking-rent index. Neither statistic proves what a new lease, a particular bedroom count, or an individual household will pay.
Bedroom detail requires another boundary. The supplied FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $2,030, an administrative bedroom-specific benchmark rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI with this local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,158 for a studio, $1,271 for one bedroom, $1,633 for two bedrooms, $2,156 for three bedrooms, and $2,381 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They are tied to the relative HUD ladder, not a bedroom rent sample. The standard does not become a market quote or establish a unit’s rent.
The 30% required-income screen puts $65,320 of annual household income alongside the monthly ZORI. ACS’s matched ZCTA median household income is $95,633. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; household composition, utility inclusion, and actual lease terms are outside the calculation. In the ACS occupied-renter survey, 2,729 of 7,540 renter households, or 36.19%, reported rent burdens at or above 30% of income. That area-level burden evidence describes surveyed households, not affordability, payment status, or eligibility for any particular home.
Housing stock helps frame but not solve that distinction. The ACS ZCTA has 11,940 housing units, a 14.15% vacancy rate, and a 75.56% renter share; it also records 5,460 large-multifamily units. Those counts cannot establish that a specific property is available, suitable, or similarly priced. For wider context only, the City of Cincinnati context rent is $1,475.37; Hamilton County context rent is $1,539; and the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN metro context rent is $1,583. Each is a named city, county, or metro comparison rather than a substitute for the ZIP’s ZORI or its ZCTA survey.
History confirms a deceleration rather than a straight-line advance. Exact same-month ZORI changes were 0.63% over one year, 1.35% annualized over three years, and 3.26% annualized over five years. The latest direction therefore breaks from the stronger longer path, but these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The series has 100% coverage, which reduces missing-observation concern. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 2.99%, so a single current rent snapshot deserves measured, not absolute, confidence. Separately, the maximum drawdown was a 3.54% decline, evidence that the index did retreat during its observed history. National discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,028 for momentum, 1,601 for stability, and 2,136 for balanced history; lower ranks are higher.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation through June 30, 2026 is a for-sale record, not rental transactions. It shows a $477,392 median sold price, up 29.02% year over year, with 59 homes sold and a 94-day median marketing time. Inventory stood at 138 homes and 7.1 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 96.98%, while 5.27% of sales closed above list. The price change stands apart from the slowing ZORI history, challenging any assumption that asking-rent momentum proxies resale momentum. The supply, marketing, and sale-to-list figures remain resale-liquidity signals, not rental turnover. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.10%, only a cross-source screening ratio, never a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The evidence is intentionally not a valuation, rent forecast, neighborhood assessment, or recommendation. Timing differs across a current asking-rent index, a five-year occupied-home survey, an administrative HUD standard, and a rolling resale observation; their alignment cannot be assumed. A property-level review would need the actual advertised rent for the selected floor plan, bedroom count, lease length, included utilities, fees, concessions, availability, and exact address-to-boundary match. The checks separate a listing’s stated terms from area summaries and separate a parcel’s completed-sale evidence from ZIP medians. They also establish whether a property’s geography matches the ZCTA survey boundary instead of merely sharing a postal label. For a resale decision, it would separately need property-specific closed-sale evidence, list history, condition, and transaction terms. Area vacancy and burden measures cannot prove conditions or affordability at a particular unit. Which evidence universe actually matches the decision under review?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP index is $1,633, with a 0.63% same-month gain over one year versus annualized gains of 1.35% over three years and 3.26% over five years. Continuous history coverage makes the comparison complete, but the slowing pace breaks from the longer path. These index measurements describe past asking-rent movement, not a forecast, lease quote, or investment conclusion.","title":"Asking rent slowed along a still positive long record"},{"body":"HUD’s two-bedroom administrative standard is $2,030, while the ZIP bedroom ladder scales the all-type ZORI to modelled estimates rather than measured rents. The ladder runs from $1,158 for a studio to $2,381 for four bedrooms, with $1,633 at two bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR standards are bedroom-specific program benchmarks; they are not evidence of the current asking rent for a comparable listed unit.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not rent observations"},{"body":"At a 30% screen, annual income of $65,320 corresponds arithmetically to the current ZORI, below the ZCTA median household income of $95,633. ACS nevertheless reports 36.19% of surveyed renter households burdened at or above that threshold. The calculation is not applicant advice or qualification, and the burden statistic cannot establish a particular household’s payment capacity or a particular unit’s utility-inclusive cost.","title":"Area affordability screens cannot determine unit affordability"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale observation reports a $477,392 median sold price and 29.02% annual price growth, but it is a rolling for-sale measure rather than rental evidence. With 94 median marketing days, 7.1 months of supply, a 96.98% average sale-to-list ratio, and only 5.27% above list, its liquidity signals add context without changing the rent result. The 4.10% rent-price screen is not a yield metric.","title":"Resale price movement is not a rental-market result"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and Redfin sales use different populations, timing, utility treatment, and administrative purposes. Treating them as interchangeable unit rents or one property-economic model can materially distort a comparison.","The shared five-digit label does not erase the boundary difference: the Census ZCTA is statistical, while USPS delivery ZIPs are operational. An address-level boundary check remains necessary before applying ZCTA survey context.","ACS burden, vacancy, and income are area survey summaries with sampling uncertainty and household variation. They cannot establish an applicant’s qualification, a unit’s availability, included utilities, payment behavior, or lease terms.","The rent-price ratio combines an asking-rent index with a resale median, neither tied to the same property. It omits property costs, financing, taxes, repairs, leasing terms, and transaction-specific conditions."],"qa":[{"a":"At the stated Zillow endpoint, it is ZIP ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a recorded lease payment, a median of occupied renter homes, a utility-inclusive bill, or a measured bedroom-specific asking rent. It therefore provides a market-level asking-rent snapshot only.","q":"What does the $1,633 figure measure?"},{"a":"ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and reports median gross rent, including selected utilities. ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index across blended rental types. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Different populations, time windows, and definitions mean their dollar amounts can be compared for context but not substituted for one another.","q":"Why do ACS, ZORI, and HUD figures differ?"},{"a":"The history record uses exact same-month comparisons, so it describes completed ZORI movement through the stated endpoint rather than a prediction. Full coverage helps continuity, while the variability and drawdown show that the index did not move in a straight line. The discovery ranks are comparative research labels among eligible ZIP histories; lower rank is higher, not a quality grade.","q":"How should the history measurements be used?"},{"a":"Redfin directly observes rolling three-month ZIP resale activity: completed-sale prices, sale volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and list-price outcomes. It does not observe rental transactions, a given building’s leases, operating costs, or property-level economics. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price provides a cross-source screen only. It cannot establish a cap rate, yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"What does the Redfin block add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1163.37443},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1152.098019},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1176.879379},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1185.207147},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1218.538329},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1204.115646},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1212.195612},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1200.946261},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1211.87239},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1220.975654},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1222.815427},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1248.82257},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1244.587704},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1274.832791},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1250.115547},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1241.420736},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1229.688103},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1235.112968},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1239.731055},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1246.060792},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1267.612308},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1295.580718},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1292.009712},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1266.932555},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1267.709605},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1288.79667},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1319.750591},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1336.155973},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1318.088274},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1318.192293},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1330.546857},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1341.418229},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1341.457087},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1331.600939},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1344.297694},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1357.992736},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1367.401188},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1351.533687},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1347.975776},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1351.637447},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1378.519677},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1393.90628},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1382.656514},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1372.786186},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1377.304531},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1374.405226},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1375.777074},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1361.786757},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1371.90656},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1358.402241},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1359.795523},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1345.074793},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1347.443415},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1352.84356},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1356.036575},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1371.022215},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1371.499292},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1391.578987},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1390.280407},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1404.172756},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1413.721544},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1433.254867},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1447.938001},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1449.900205},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1450.669523},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1457.543967},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1466.455747},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1476.636457},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1486.319448},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1502.199482},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1516.644838},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1527.336698},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1535.133962},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1558.503713},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1564.270205},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1571.655941},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1560.064695},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1559.82423},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1564.131844},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1565.351287},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1572.279909},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1568.918157},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1570.351739},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1576.975081},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1579.741355},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1563.662889},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1557.535631},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1567.247985},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1587.726665},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1593.932319},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1595.998504},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1599.834103},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1602.109524},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1604.998193},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1606.759966},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1598.351999},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1602.832319},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1601.418191},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1611.853763},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1608.831468},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1613.541006},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1608.67015},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1608.590375},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1614.012358},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1621.255454},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1623.141177},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1625.683101},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1633.201244},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1633.15773},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1642.642714},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1641.588526},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1642.559357},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1635.784291},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1640.518128},{"period":"2026-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