ZIP 45227 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $1,706, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, after a 4.98% year-over-year increase. Cincinnati city context is $1,475, Hamilton County context is $1,539, and Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN metro context is $1,583; each is wider-area context rather than a substitute ZIP rent reading. The ZIP therefore sits above all three named asking-rent contexts, while its own history and resale evidence provide important limits on how that current premium should be interpreted.
The longer Zillow ZORI record shows a positive but moderating path rather than a uniform acceleration. Exact same-month annualized changes were 4.98% over one year, 4.94% over three years, and 7.27% over five years. Thus, the latest direction confirms the longer upward trajectory, but the recent pace is below the five-year result. The record has 69 monthly observations with 100% coverage. Monthly changes annualized into 2.97% variability, which supports more confidence in the broad direction than in any single current snapshot. Separately, the worst observed peak-to-trough drawdown was 2.19%, showing that the historical series did experience reversals. Transparent national discovery ranks are 336 for momentum, 1572 for stability, and 467 for the balanced measure; these are backward-looking discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Direct ZIP resale evidence creates a useful tension with the rent record. In Redfin’s stated rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $358,919, up 7.14% year over year. There were 83 homes sold, median marketing time was 40 days, and inventory was 82 homes with 3.0 months of supply. Average sale-to-list reached 100.69%, while 35.84% of sales closed above list and 67.55% went off market within two weeks. Those are for-sale-market signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 5.70%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. Resale price growth exceeded the recent rent increase, challenging any simple reading of rent momentum as the only affordability or value signal.
Different rent universes explain much of the apparent gap. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,229 for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is not an asking-rent series. The current Zillow asking-rent index is 138.8% of that ACS median, a comparison between different populations, timing frameworks, and rent definitions rather than proof that a particular unit rents at either amount. HUD’s FY 2026 local two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $1,540. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, yet the ZORI is 110.8% of that two-bedroom standard. These measures are useful side by side only when their separate evidence universes remain explicit.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents. The resulting monthly estimates are $1,207 for a studio, $1,329 for one bedroom, $1,706 for two bedrooms, $2,249 for three bedrooms, and $2,493 for four bedrooms. This ladder gives a consistent way to translate the blended all-rental-types index across unit sizes, but it cannot establish the advertised rent, condition, utilities, or availability of an individual home or apartment.
The income screen is more mixed than the headline asking rent alone. Median household income in the ZCTA is $71,646, and current ZIP asking rent equals 28.6% of that annual income when converted to a monthly comparison. A $68,240 annual income is implied by the 30% required-income screen. That screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS burden evidence remains substantial: 1,945 of 4,031 renter households, or 48.3%, reported paying at least 30% of income toward rent. The median-income calculation and burden share can coexist because they describe different populations and distributions; neither proves affordability for a particular household or lease.
Housing composition also cautions against treating the index as a simple availability measure. The ZCTA vacancy rate is 5.9%, below the Cincinnati city context rate and the Hamilton County context rate supplied in the packet, while the renter share is 44.5%. The housing stock is weighted toward single-family structures, with a smaller large-multifamily component. Vacancy includes multiple categories and does not identify units that are rentable, suitable, priced near ZORI, or actually available at a given moment. Likewise, the renter share describes occupied housing composition, not the terms facing a new renter.
The evidence is strongest as a disciplined ZIP-level screen: current asking rent is above named city, county, and metro contexts; historical rent growth remains positive but slower than its five-year pace; and resale activity shows price growth and relatively tight marketing signals in a separate transaction universe. Important limits remain. Readers should verify the address-level advertised rent, bedroom count, utility responsibility, lease length, fees, move-in date, and concessions before comparing a listing with the modelled ladder. For a resale comparison, verify property condition, list and sale records, financing terms, and whether the observed transaction is genuinely comparable. The HUD ladder’s ZIP-SAFMR versus county-derived basis should also be confirmed. Can those property-level facts support the broad ZIP screen without being mistaken for evidence already contained in it?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 45227’s Zillow ZORI is above the supplied Cincinnati city, Hamilton County, and Cincinnati metro asking-rent contexts. That is a ZIP-level index comparison, not evidence that every available property commands the same premium. The current reading should be paired with the ACS and HUD definitions before drawing any conclusion about household costs or bedroom-specific rents.","title":"Current asking-rent position"},{"body":"Same-month Zillow ZORI growth remains positive across the one-, three-, and five-year horizons, although the latest annual pace trails the longer five-year pace. Complete observation coverage improves confidence in the record’s continuity. Modest annualized variability and a limited historical drawdown still mean a single month is less informative than the broader trend path.","title":"History supports direction, not precision"},{"body":"The Redfin ZIP observation shows rising median sold prices, completed transactions, short marketing time, limited supply, and sale-to-list results above par. These are direct for-sale indicators, not rental leases or appraisals. Because sale prices rose faster than recent asking rent, the resale record complicates any simple conclusion based on rent growth alone.","title":"Resale signals are active but separate"},{"body":"The median-income screen places current ZORI below the arithmetic thirty-percent threshold for the ZCTA median household income, yet nearly half of surveyed renter households report burden at or above that threshold. This is not a contradiction requiring a single explanation: the measures use different distributions, timing, and rent concepts, and neither identifies an individual household’s outcome.","title":"Affordability measures diverge by population"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD fair-market-rent standards measure different rental universes, so their gaps should not be treated as direct evidence of a property’s achievable rent or tenant cost.","The modelled bedroom ladder scales a blended ZIP asking-rent index using HUD standards. It can differ materially from a listing because unit condition, utilities, lease terms, availability, and property type are unobserved.","Redfin resale metrics are based on a rolling three-month for-sale observation. They do not measure rental demand, landlord revenue, operating costs, financing, repairs, taxes, or the economics of a specific property.","Historical rent growth, variability, drawdown, and national discovery ranks are backward-looking measurements. They do not forecast future asking rents, sale prices, vacancy, leasing speed, or outcomes for any prospective transaction."],"qa":[{"a":"The five-digit label is used here as both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but their purposes differ. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area built to approximate ZIP geography for tabulation. It is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, which is organized for mail routing and can change independently.","q":"Why is the Census ZCTA label not the same thing as a USPS ZIP code?"},{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current-style ZIP asking-rent index that blends rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, sampled households, occupied-versus-offered units, utility treatment, and rental mix can all produce a gap without establishing an error in either source.","q":"Why does Zillow asking rent exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates produced by scaling the ZIP Zillow ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, while ZORI is blended across rental types. The estimates therefore organize the ZIP index by bedroom size but do not measure rents advertised or signed for particular units.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP Zillow ZORI by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price, creating a cross-source screening ratio. It can highlight the relationship between broad asking-rent and resale-price measures at one point in time. It does not include expenses, vacancy, debt, property condition, transaction costs, taxes, maintenance, or actual lease revenue, so it is not a cap rate or return measure.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screen show, and what does it not show?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1173.493275},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1184.546926},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1179.711012},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1170.119946},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1165.891541},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1188.128601},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1206.127841},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1213.827923},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1201.104274},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1199.386367},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1223.777412},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1262.243369},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1284.837212},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1291.819677},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1289.327545},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1314.860005},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1328.514875},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1346.729476},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1348.004024},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1361.429416},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1372.621606},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1381.238813},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1379.572571},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1374.316991},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1371.568393},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1381.3294},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1391.956698},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1401.41312},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1401.19594},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1418.170596},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1435.83778},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1462.486662},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1476.532699},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1480.625784},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1478.488758},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1478.527004},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1484.159911},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1482.918866},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1516.306164},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1515.85924},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1542.542248},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1511.527958},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1523.824179},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1508.759795},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1527.037343},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1532.498272},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1549.07849},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1550.551559},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1561.022569},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1570.18705},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1571.858013},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1573.936058},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1580.699102},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1605.965466},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1619.298914},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1625.697654},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1625.441841},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1637.593599},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1644.828122},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1662.812077},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1670.278529},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1679.744148},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1676.666543},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1689.973769},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1687.71872},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1695.906822},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1691.561123},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1703.919634},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1706.369298}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":69,"firstPeriod":"2020-10-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":69,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1625.441841,"endRent":1706.369298,"change":0.04978797454248629,"cagr":0.04978797454248629},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1476.532699,"endRent":1706.369298,"change":0.1556596742866987,"cagr":0.04940546063314266},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1201.104274,"endRent":1706.369298,"change":0.4206670769035994,"cagr":0.0727498518155747}},"maxDrawdown":-0.021900504212316374,"annualizedVolatility":0.029701748628382832,"consecutiveReturnCount":68}}