ZIP 45231’s June 2026 Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) of $1,631 is the current rent signal, but its pace rather than its level supplies the central tension. ZORI is Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types; it is not a bedroom-specific observation. Exact same-month history shows a 4.23% gain over one year, versus annualized changes of 4.96% over three years and 6.90% over five years. The index is still rising, yet the latest period breaks from the longer path’s faster rate rather than from its upward direction. For wider context only, the Cincinnati city scope is $1,475.37, Hamilton County scope is $1,539, and the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN metro scope is $1,583; none substitutes for this direct ZIP index.
The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the matched Census geography is a deliberately separate evidence universe. The ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,232 for occupied renter homes in that ZCTA. It is a survey measure that includes selected utilities rather than a current typical asking-rent index. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,460, a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than an asking rent. The difference among these figures reflects their definitions, time construction, and populations; it is not proof that any one source is wrong or interchangeable.
Bedroom detail is available only as a model. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,151 for a studio, $1,262 for one bedroom, $1,631 for two bedrooms, $2,156 for three bedrooms, and $2,379 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; their pattern follows the HUD ladder applied to an index blended across rental types. At the structural 30% screen, annual rent at the current index arithmetic requires $65,240 of income. The ZCTA median household income is $71,353, and the index-to-income calculation is 27.4%. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice, a tenant budget, or an applicant qualification rule.
Housing and burden evidence comes from the ACS ZCTA survey, not from listings. It records 17,505 housing units and 594 vacant units, a 3.4% vacancy rate across the stock. The 14,406 single-family units outnumber the large-multifamily category, but those categories neither identify actual rentals on the market nor establish a property’s condition. Among 4,640 renter-occupied homes, 2,079 households reported gross rent burdens of 30% or more, a 44.8% share. That burden measure relates to surveyed occupied renter households and includes the ACS gross-rent concept, not the current Zillow asking index. The 287 units classified vacant for rent are a period-wide statistical count; they cannot show vacancy, price, utilities, or applicant experience at a particular unit. Census sampling margins also apply to these estimates.
The local rental position is therefore not the same as the regional tenure and vacancy picture. In Cincinnati city context, renter share, vacancy, and the share of renters facing burden are each higher than in the ZIP; Hamilton County context shows the same three directional differences. The Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN metro context has a lower rent-to-income screen than the ZIP calculation, while its apartment vacancy is an apartment-market measure, not an all-housing ACS vacancy rate. City, county, and metro figures remain contextual because their boundaries are wider than the ZIP. They help frame the contrast between a locally above-context asking index and a less renter-dominated housing base, but they do not transfer conditions from any wider scope to an individual address.
History supports a qualified reading of the current index, not a projection. Coverage was 98.4%, indicating that the backward-looking series is nearly complete for its intended window. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 3.43%, so one observed rent snapshot merits more confidence as a current index level than as a guaranteed persistent growth pace. Separately, the largest peak-to-trough decline measured was 2.08%, showing the depth of the historical retreat without limiting future moves. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 450 for momentum, 2,168 for stability, and 952 for the balanced measure, with lower rank higher. The weaker stability rank reinforces that the upward history and recent slowdown should be read together rather than as an investment recommendation.
Redfin’s direct ZIP rolling-three-month resale observation tracks for-sale transactions, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $229,848, up 2.15% year over year, across 145 homes sold; median marketing time was 43 days. Inventory stood at 138 homes after a 28.61% annual increase, and months of supply was 2.9. At sale, the average sale-to-list result was 100.41%, while 40.46% of homes sold above list. These resale signals present a tension with the rent/history screen: sale-price change was slower than the latest ZORI increase and inventory expanded, challenging a simple scarcity reading, yet the sale-to-list results and supply describe active resale liquidity. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals an 8.52% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Several limits keep these data from answering a property-level question by themselves. ZORI mixes rental types and represents typical asking rent; ACS summarizes an earlier five-year survey period; HUD sets administrative standards; and Redfin describes sales, not rents received. None establishes an exact unit’s rent, included utilities, lease term, condition, concessions, household income, or vacancy. A property-level review should verify that the address maps to the intended ZIP, then match the live asking rent, bedroom count, utilities, availability date, and lease terms to the modelled ladder rather than treating that ladder as a comp. On the resale side, verify the property’s current listing and sale history, list-price changes, days marketed, and status instead of assigning ZIP-wide sale signals to it. Do the actual property facts remain consistent with the narrowly defined source measures?
","findings":[{"body":"The direct ZIP asking-rent index is above the cited Cincinnati city, Hamilton County, and Cincinnati metro contextual rent values. Its latest same-month increase remains positive but trails the corresponding three- and five-year annualized paths. That pattern indicates deceleration within an upward backward-looking history, not a prediction for leases, listings, or property performance.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has decelerated"},{"body":"The 30% calculation converts the current index into a household-income benchmark, while the ACS burden share captures surveyed occupied renter households paying that portion or more of gross rent. Median household income is a broad household statistic, not applicant data. Because gross rent includes selected utilities and ZORI is asking rent, neither measure determines whether a particular household can rent a particular home.","title":"Income screen and renter burden answer different questions"},{"body":"ACS reports a mostly single-family housing stock, low all-housing vacancy, and a measured count of units classified vacant for rent. Those statistics cover the matched ZCTA over a survey period, with sampling margins, rather than live availability. They cannot identify a property’s unit condition, actual lease terms, rent concession, tenant turnover, or vacancy status at the time of inquiry.","title":"Vacancy and stock figures are area statistics"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record presents a slower sale-price increase than the current ZORI increase alongside growing inventory. However, its sale-to-list result, above-list share, sales volume, marketing time, and supply measure indicate active conditions in the for-sale market. These are resale observations, not rental comps. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation remains a cross-source screening ratio, never a property yield or return.","title":"Resale activity adds a separate market tension"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it may not equal the advertised rent, signed rent, utility treatment, bedroom mix, or concessions for a specific available property.","ACS ZCTA estimates represent a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes, carry sampling uncertainty, and use a statistical geography that does not exactly match USPS delivery ZIP boundaries.","HUD FMR/SAFMR standards and the scaled bedroom figures are administrative inputs and modelled estimates, respectively; neither is measured ZIP bedroom asking rent or evidence of a particular unit’s affordability.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation can describe for-sale prices and marketing conditions, but it cannot establish rental transaction prices, net operating costs, financing, property condition, or future performance."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index through June 2026, whereas ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical, not a USPS delivery ZIP, adding another scope distinction.","q":"Why does Zillow’s asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts were generated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They preserve that ladder’s relative shape but are modelled monthly estimates. They are not measurements of listings, signed leases, or transactions for any bedroom size in ZIP 45231.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual observed rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"No. Dividing annualized ZORI by 30% produces a simple income threshold, and comparing it with ZCTA median household income is a population-level arithmetic screen. It does not incorporate a household’s actual income, utilities, debts, household size, lease terms, or an owner’s standards; it neither advises nor qualifies applicants.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine who can qualify for a rental?"},{"a":"Redfin provides direct rolling-three-month ZIP evidence about for-sale resales: sold prices, price movement, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list results. It can reveal tension between the resale and asking-rent readings, but it does not provide rental transactions, property operating economics, or a forecast of either market.","q":"What does the Redfin block add to the rental evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1158.461849},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1167.924145},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1209.752513},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1229.03052},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1241.73046},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1261.064259},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1263.896938},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1274.439346},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1276.6573},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1317.603404},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1338.137396},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1362.075366},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1366.528419},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1353.627},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1348.731995},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1338.124363},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1357.332585},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1357.553451},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1385.272528},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1386.538801},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1401.92301},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1395.212801},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1416.345051},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1415.263115},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1410.15838},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1400.433061},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1424.790449},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1459.502338},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1473.480218},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1472.794031},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1481.522179},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1488.818518},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1502.440362},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1496.560887},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1478.297138},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1471.441037},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1487.958291},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1518.106774},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1511.442555},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1505.235063},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1505.307376},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1526.133413},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1528.687518},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1533.472248},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1518.117249},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1516.158842},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1529.456442},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1551.214975},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1564.570027},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1562.475225},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1571.191708},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1575.376566},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1578.777803},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1577.320344},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1580.19553},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1587.65853},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1604.862974},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1624.851329},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1633.293823},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1634.050832},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1630.731054}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":61,"firstPeriod":"2021-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":62,"coverageRatio":0.9838709677419355,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1564.570027,"endRent":1630.731054,"change":0.042287034685728475,"cagr":0.042287034685728475},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1410.15838,"endRent":1630.731054,"change":0.15641695083923834,"cagr":0.04963462747458958},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1167.924145,"endRent":1630.731054,"change":0.3962645270939238,"cagr":0.06903897976393725}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02078555821091932,"annualizedVolatility":0.034289546195641,"consecutiveReturnCount":59}}