The central tension for 46074 is a June 2026 Zillow ZORI of $2,070: the ZIP’s typical observed asking-rent index is high versus its broader benchmarks, while its recent growth has moderated. That index is blended across rental types and records typical observed asking rents; it is not a quoted rent for a particular home. That reading exceeds the $1,986 Westfield city context rent, the $1,837 Hamilton County context rent, and the $1,558 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN metro context rent; every comparison is wider-area context, not a ZIP substitute. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Backward-looking same-month history through the stated endpoint puts the one-year gain at 2.63%, versus annualized changes of 3.50% over three years and 5.44% over five years. The latest reading therefore confirms the longer upward direction but breaks from its earlier pace: growth is positive yet slower than both trailing horizons. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.14%, with a maximum drawdown of -4.40%. Full coverage comprises 66 observations and 65 consecutive monthly returns, which supports continuity but not certainty around a single current snapshot. The transparent national discovery ranks are 974 for momentum, 1,842 for stability, and 1,326 for the balanced measure; lower ranks place higher. These are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Zillow and ACS answer different rent questions, making the gap informative but not interchangeable. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,690, with a 90% margin of error of $146, compared with the current asking-rent index. Gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is an asking-rent index across rentals. The 22.5% difference should not be read as a measured change for a common set of homes, proof that any listing includes utilities, or evidence about lease terms. It chiefly marks distinct timing, population, and cost-treatment universes.
Bedroom figures should be used only as modelled estimates. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder yields a monthly sequence from studio through four-bedroom of $1,569, $1,776, $2,070, $2,680, and $3,290. The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder that supplies the relative pattern is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard—not asking rent; its studio, two-bedroom, and four-bedroom standards are $1,440, $1,900, and $3,020. The model’s two-bedroom result equals the ZIP index because of the scaling anchor, not because bedroom rents were directly measured. These figures are unsuitable for identifying a unit’s rent, condition, utility treatment, or availability.
The income lens gives two distinct calculations. Applying a 30% share of income to the monthly index produces an annual required income of $82,800; against the ZCTA median household income of $126,724, with a $6,028 margin of error, that index equals 19.6% of annual median income. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 1,289 of 3,273 renter households, or 39.4%, reported rent burden at or above that threshold. A median-income ratio cannot erase the burden estimate, and the burden estimate cannot prove that a particular prospective household or unit will be unaffordable.
Housing composition makes vacancy a limited signal rather than a live-listings count. The ZCTA contains 18,527 housing units and has a 4.2% vacancy rate, while renter-occupied homes account for 18.4% of occupied units. The structure inventory reports 16,038 single-family units and also includes large multifamily buildings. These stock figures do not say which homes are offered today, at what rent, or under what terms; vacancy cannot establish availability for a particular unit. The ZIP’s renter share and vacancy rate are below the Westfield city context and Hamilton County context values; the Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN metro is likewise broader context rather than evidence about this ZIP’s active rental inventory.
Several limits should govern use of the packet. Survey estimates carry sampling error, ZORI is an index rather than a unit quote, and the HUD ladder is an administrative standard; none determines a lease outcome. Neither the burden share nor the vacancy rate is proof about any property, landlord, or applicant. A property-level comparison would require the live advertised monthly rent, exact unit type and bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, recurring fees, deposits, concessions, availability date, and whether the location uses the relevant market identifier. It would also need confirmation that the selected listing is being compared to the appropriate source universe. Does the specific listing’s all-in recurring cost and configuration actually match the index comparison being made?
","findings":[{"body":"At June 2026, the $2,070 ZIP ZORI is above the supplied $1,986 Westfield city context rent, $1,837 Hamilton County context rent, and $1,558 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN metro context rent. This is a geographic benchmark comparison of wider-area values, not proof that a particular 46074 rental is priced above comparable individual homes. ZORI itself is a blended typical observed asking-rent index.","title":"Current index sits above broader rent context"},{"body":"Same-month annualized ZORI growth was 2.63% for one year, 3.50% for three years, and 5.44% for five years. The positive latest rate continues the upward direction but is slower than both longer measures. A 3.14% annualized monthly-return variability and -4.40% maximum drawdown limit confidence in treating any one index reading as a permanent level. History is backward-looking only.","title":"Growth remains positive but the pace has eased"},{"body":"The supplied bedroom sequence is a modelled allocation of ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder, ranging from $1,569 through $3,290 from studio to four-bedroom. It is not a set of measured bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking rents, so they provide relative scaling rather than direct evidence of a listing’s rent, amenities, utilities, or lease package.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled index allocations"},{"body":"The ACS matched ZCTA survey reports a $1,690 median gross rent and a 39.4% estimated burden share at the 30% threshold among renter households. Gross rent includes selected utilities and is measured among occupied renters. In contrast, a ZORI-based screen produces $82,800 annual income at that threshold; the calculation is neither applicant advice nor a qualification test.","title":"Income screen and burden answer different questions"}],"risks":["Zillow’s June 2026 index and ACS’s 2024 five-year gross-rent estimate cover different timing, households, and utility treatment, so their dollar gap cannot establish a unit-level premium or trend.","Bedroom values are modelled from the HUD ladder. Because HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, the estimates may not match a listing’s size, condition, included utilities, or terms.","ACS ZCTA estimates have sampling uncertainty, including margins of error for income, gross rent, renter occupancy, and burden counts; the ZCTA boundary is statistical and does not equal a USPS delivery ZIP.","Vacancy and burden are aggregate measures, not evidence that a specific property is available or affordable. Listing-level rent, fees, utilities, concessions, lease duration, and availability remain unobserved in this packet."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is the ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index. For 46074, the supplied June 2026 value is $2,070 and represents typical observed asking rents blended across rental types. It is useful as a market-level benchmark, but it does not identify a particular listing, bedroom count, utility package, lease duration, or executed rent.","q":"What does ZORI measure in 46074?"},{"a":"The matched ZCTA ACS estimate is based on occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; its median is not a current asking-rent quote. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Different timing, sampled population, and cost treatment make the two measures useful context but not interchangeable values for the same homes.","q":"Why is the ACS gross-rent median not interchangeable with ZORI?"},{"a":"The reported studio-through-four-bedroom amounts scale the ZIP ZORI using the supplied FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. That ladder is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent. Because the calculation distributes an index using relative HUD values, the outputs are modelled estimates rather than measured rents for studios, one-bedroom homes, or other individual rental units.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates produced?"},{"a":"The ACS ZCTA’s 4.2% vacancy rate and 39.4% burden share describe aggregate stock and surveyed renter households, respectively. They do not establish that a named property is available, affordable, or subject to any particular terms. A property-level assessment would still need the advertised rent, included utilities, unit configuration, fees, concessions, lease duration, and availability date.","q":"What can be concluded from vacancy and burden measures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1494.628665},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1495.638018},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1526.215965},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1535.431545},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1567.529403},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1588.533111},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1610.835916},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1643.496377},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1668.800233},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1706.151753},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1738.442829},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1768.373255},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1768.627066},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1783.55705},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1793.44691},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1827.704865},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1827.02617},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1868.190739},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1894.137288},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1878.353503},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1846.165743},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1810.870946},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1818.118654},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1836.748035},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1859.057826},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1879.991764},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1884.840886},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1874.988543},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1879.53173},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1866.925127},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1871.656197},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1875.721422},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1900.530221},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1927.351855},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1919.748925},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1917.490156},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1913.083426},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1933.034108},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1938.773799},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1952.815254},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1954.377067},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1945.227364},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1952.370941},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1971.172205},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1983.822228},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1962.862116},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1950.921418},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1952.343106},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1974.941445},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1982.476897},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1986.881846},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1998.878777},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2001.022388},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2016.938046},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2018.954597},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2019.602262},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2017.521654},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2040.042519},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2063.870473},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2072.018579},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2064.283653},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2055.932129},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2060.530437},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2057.097328},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2065.211091},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2069.931829}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2016.938046,"endRent":2069.931829,"change":0.02627437322881465,"cagr":0.02627437322881465},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1866.925127,"endRent":2069.931829,"change":0.10873853432259262,"cagr":0.035006428526305644},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1588.533111,"endRent":2069.931829,"change":0.303046071036539,"cagr":0.054367362892501436}},"maxDrawdown":-0.043960035277020526,"annualizedVolatility":0.03143804503584122,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}