In ZIP 46123, Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,857 per month, a 1.52% same-month rise. The concurrent evidence creates a useful tension: Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $347,919 median sold price, down 6.72% year over year. Within that for-sale universe, 239 homes sold with a median 27 days on market, inventory of 121 homes, and 1.5 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.71%, while 13.37% of sold homes went above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions; the sold-price decline challenges a simple reading of positive current asking-rent movement.
The supplied rent history carries a stable-growth classification, but the pace is slower recently. Its exact same-month annualized change was 1.52% over one year, 3.46% over three years, and 5.03% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path rather than breaking it, but not its earlier growth speed. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.85%, maximum drawdown is -2.45%, and coverage is 100% across the available series. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,304 for momentum, 1,346 for stability, and 1,284 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The contained historical variation supports measured confidence in one rent snapshot, while still leaving its current level dependent on Zillow’s index construction.
Level comparisons require strict source separation. The 46123 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. By contrast, the ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes reports $1,451 median gross rent, with a reported margin of error of $111, and median gross rent includes selected utilities. It is therefore not a current advertised-rent series. HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $1,850 monthly. The common geography label permits comparison, not substitution, among those measures.
Bedroom detail is a scaling exercise, not a new set of observations. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,405 for a studio, $1,596 for one bedroom, $1,857 for two bedrooms, $2,409 for three bedrooms, and $2,951 for four bedrooms. Each estimate preserves the ZIP index as its base and uses the relative local HUD standard to set the bedroom relationship. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and should not be read as evidence that a listed unit exists, is available, or is offered at that amount.
The income and burden evidence creates a second tension. At the 30% required-income screen, the monthly ZIP index translates to $74,280 in annual household income; that is below the matched ZCTA’s $103,485 median household income. The same index represents a 21.5% asking-rent-to-income screen against that median. Yet ACS estimates that 1,515 of 3,207 renter households bear rent at or above that share of income, a 47.2% burden share. The screen uses a current asking index and a median-household benchmark, whereas the burden result is a survey distribution among renter homes. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and neither measure establishes any specific household’s capacity or any unit’s terms.
The matched ZCTA’s housing inventory provides a broad stock and vacancy frame, not a listing feed. It contains 16,942 housing units, of which 545 are vacant, for a 3.2% overall vacancy rate; 315 units are classified vacant for rent. The survey also distinguishes single-family and large-multifamily structures, which describes stock but does not identify the rental type embedded in the blended ZORI. Vacancy categories do not prove that a particular home is rentable, currently available, priced at the index, or suitable for a given household. Likewise, market-level renter counts and burden data cannot establish a lease outcome for an individual address.
Broader places bracket the ZIP without replacing it. In the Avon city context, the rent measure is $1,836.63; in the county context of Hendricks County, it is $1,869; and in the metropolitan context of Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN, it is $1,558. These city, county, and metro values are wider context only, and each is a different scope from the ZIP’s matched ZCTA or Zillow market identifier. The local ZIP index is near the city and county figures but above the metro comparison; that relationship is descriptive, not evidence that any property shares a broader area’s rent, vacancy, or resale conditions.
One cross-source calculation should be kept deliberately narrow: annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals a 6.40% screening ratio. It combines an asking-rent index with a median resale observation and cannot measure property-specific terms, condition, costs, or transaction timing. It also cannot resolve the tension between positive rent history and the recent lower resale median. A property-level review needs the live advertised rent, actual bedroom count, availability date, lease length, concessions, utility responsibility, and the relevant sale record’s date, condition, and list-versus-sale terms. Those checks are needed because neither the ZORI, ACS, HUD ladder, vacancy categories, nor Redfin aggregate identifies a particular unit. Which unit-level records match the signals in this ZIP?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June asking-rent index rose 1.52% to $1,857, while the direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale median sold price fell 6.72% to $347,919. Sales volume, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list measures belong solely to the resale universe. The contrast prevents either price series from being treated as confirmation of the other.","title":"Rent and resale point in different directions"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD are not competing measurements of the same rent. ZORI tracks a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year occupied-renter survey whose gross-rent statistic includes selected utilities; HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The ZCTA match is statistical geography, not a USPS delivery ZIP, so timing and universe differences remain material.","title":"Zillow, ACS, and HUD answer different questions"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen requires $74,280 in annual household income, below the ZCTA’s $103,485 median. Yet ACS estimates 47.2% of renter households pay at least 30% of income for rent. Those results use a median-income screen and a survey burden distribution, so neither shows affordability or qualification for a particular household.","title":"The income screen does not erase renter burden"},{"body":"The 3.2% survey vacancy rate and 315 vacant-for-rent units establish a market-level inventory category, not an available-unit count. Structure mix, renter burden, and vacancy counts cannot establish a listing’s lease terms, utilities, condition, or availability date. The 100% coverage rent history improves series completeness but does not change the need for property-specific verification.","title":"Survey supply measures require unit verification"}],"risks":["The asking-rent index, the ACS survey, the HUD standard, and the resale series have different populations, timing, and units of observation; comparing them can misstate any one unit’s actual rent, utility cost, or occupancy.","ACS renter counts, burden estimates, and gross-rent figures carry sampling uncertainty, while median gross rent reflects occupied renter homes; neither measurement identifies affordability, payment behavior, or utility responsibility for a particular property.","The direct rolling-three-month resale observation combines sales across properties, so its median price, supply, and marketing measures can mask property variation; no resale measure in this packet establishes rental transactions or lease economics.","The series has complete history coverage, yet same-month changes, past variability, drawdowns, and discovery ranks remain backward-looking measurements. They cannot establish future asking rents, resale prices, or the performance of any particular property."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It summarizes the supplied ZIP market identifier at the stated monthly endpoint, not a bedroom-specific listing, a lease contract, or a measure of rents paid by all occupied households.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure measure?"},{"a":"The ACS figure comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Zillow records a current typical observed asking-rent index instead. A ZCTA is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP, and the timing, respondents, and rent definitions differ.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than the Zillow index?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents. The required-income calculation applies the stated 30% arithmetic rule and is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents and does the income screen qualify households?"},{"a":"Redfin directly observes a rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale/resale market, including sold prices, sales activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. That provides a separate liquidity context for the rent index, but it is not a rental transaction dataset. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price calculation remains only a cross-source screening ratio.","q":"What does the resale evidence add to this report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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