At the June 2026 endpoint, 50010’s Zillow ZORI is $1,210: a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quoted rent for every available unit. Its exact same-month increase was 6.97% over one year, ahead of annualized same-month changes of 4.75% over three years and 4.74% over five years. The recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path and is accelerating relative to both longer measurements, rather than breaking from it. The supplied history has 69 observations and 100% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.12%, and the largest recorded peak-to-trough decline was 1.74%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 196 for momentum, 212 for stability, and 22 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. Those backward-looking measurements make one current index snapshot more interpretable than an isolated reading, although past containment of index moves does not forecast the next rent change.
An apparent gap needs source discipline rather than a simple price conclusion. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $973 with a $30 margin of error; this is a survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is not an asking-rent series, so the ZIP ZORI's $1,210 level being 24.4% higher does not measure a like-for-like premium or change in a resident's lease. A ZCTA is a statistical area designed for Census reporting and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even when it matches this five-digit market identifier. The data therefore place current asking conditions, occupied-home gross rents, and ZIP geography in distinct evidence universes.
Bedroom detail should be read as a model, not a local listing census. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $975 for a studio, $1,007 for one bedroom, $1,210 for two, $1,681 for three, and $1,907 for four. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; their spread follows the HUD proportions applied to the overall index. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Its local two-bedroom standard is $1,090, making the ZIP index 11.0% higher, but that comparison does not make either figure a unit-level offer or affordability determination.
The income and burden figures describe separate screens. Applying the 30% required-income screen arithmetically to the current index yields $48,400 in annual income; it is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is $65,398, and the index-to-income calculation is 22.2%, but that area-wide household statistic cannot identify what any renter earns or can pay. In the ACS renter sample, an estimated 6,654 renter households include 3,072 reporting gross-rent burden of at least 30%, a 46.2% share. The estimated counts carry their published ACS margins of error. Burden is evidence about surveyed households, not proof that a particular property or tenant is affordable or burdened.
Housing counts show an occupied base but do not establish current unit availability. The ZCTA has 14,980 housing units, of which 14,233 are occupied and 747 are vacant, producing the reported 5.0% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes account for 46.8% of occupied homes. The vacant-for-rent category exists in the survey but is a classification, not a live inventory, a price list, or a measure of units suitable for a particular household. Likewise, the count of vacancies cannot reveal lease timing, condition, bedroom count, utility terms, concessions, or whether a property is accepting applications. These stock and vacancy measures are useful context for the ZCTA's composition, not evidence about a specific address.
For wider context only, the Ames city context rent is about $1,125, the Story County context rent is $1,142, and the Ames, IA metro context rent is $1,060; each is city, county, or metro scope rather than ZIP scope. These values put the ZIP's $1,210 index above all three, but the differing geography and rental mix prevent them from serving as substitutes for direct ZIP evidence. They do not establish a cause, a unit-level price difference, or a rental outcome anywhere within those areas. The comparison belongs beside—not inside—the ZORI, ACS, and HUD measures, each of which retains its own scope.
The remaining limits are practical and material. ZORI's blend does not identify the quoted rent, effective rent after concessions, lease duration, utilities, fees, deposit, occupancy date, condition, or bedroom count of an address; ACS and HUD do not fill those gaps. Decision-relevant property checks are the live advertised price, written lease terms, utility responsibility, recurring and one-time charges, concessions, availability, exact bedroom configuration, and whether the address falls in the intended geography. A reader can then compare a verified unit with the appropriate evidence universe without treating an index, a survey median, a HUD standard, vacancy, or burden as a guarantee. The decisive question is whether the specific unit's documented terms resemble the current asking-rent index or depart from it in ways the aggregate data cannot show.
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP 50010 Zillow ZORI is $1,210, with a 6.97% same-month annual gain. That is above the annualized three-year and five-year rates of 4.75% and 4.74%. The supplied series reports 100% coverage across 69 observations, 2.12% annualized monthly-return variability, and a 1.74% maximum drawdown. These measures are retrospective, not predictive.","title":"Recent asking-rent acceleration follows a stable recorded path"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS 2024 median gross rent measures occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA over five years and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The $1,210, $973, and HUD figures therefore should not be treated as interchangeable rent quotes.","title":"The principal rent measures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Modelled estimates scale the ZIP index through the local HUD ladder: $975 studio, $1,007 one-bedroom, $1,210 two-bedroom, $1,681 three-bedroom, and $1,907 four-bedroom. The calculation provides a consistent bedroom pattern for comparison, but it does not observe listings or leases by bedroom. Utility treatment, quality, timing, and lease terms may differ at a given property.","title":"Bedroom figures are HUD-scaled model outputs"},{"body":"Applying a 30% arithmetic screen to the index produces $48,400 of required annual income, while ZCTA median household income is $65,398. This is not an applicant qualification rule. ACS estimates 46.2% of renter households are burdened at that threshold, but published margins of error and household-level differences matter. Vacancy and burden are aggregate context, never proof about a particular unit.","title":"Aggregate burden and stock indicators require unit-level verification"}],"risks":["ZORI is an index rather than a unit quote, so rental type mix, timing, lease duration, concessions, utilities, and property condition can make an available unit materially different from its ZIP reading.","ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a matched ZCTA, not a real-time listing feed. Its geography is statistical and does not equal USPS delivery ZIP boundaries.","HUD FMR/SAFMR and the bedroom ladder are administrative-model inputs. The resulting bedroom amounts are not measured rents and should not be used as evidence that comparable units are currently offered.","Vacancy, rent burden, and city, county, and metro comparisons are aggregate measures with distinct scopes. They cannot verify availability, eligibility, pricing, terms, or suitability for an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"It is the June 2026 Zillow ZORI for ZIP 50010, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a price quote for every listing, a signed lease rent, or a measured estimate for a specified bedroom count.","q":"What does the $1,210 Zillow figure represent?"},{"a":"The Zillow and ACS figures use distinct universes. ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Since a matched ZCTA is statistical geography and not the same as a USPS delivery ZIP, neither measure is address-level evidence.","q":"Why cannot Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent be read as the same rent measure?"},{"a":"The bedroom amounts are mechanical modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not observed asking rent. Consequently, the estimates organize a comparison across bedroom sizes but do not establish what currently listed studios, one-bedroom, or larger units cost.","q":"What are the modelled bedroom estimates intended to show?"},{"a":"The screen divides the annualized index by 30% to show the income amount associated with that arithmetic threshold. It does not test a household’s actual income, debts, assets, subsidy status, credit, household size, or a landlord’s criteria. The ACS burden share describes surveyed renter households, not whether any individual property is affordable.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":962.276187},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":958.255694},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":952.813578},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":955.157502},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":960.082104},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":953.380901},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":945.487439},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":946.867358},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":960.036755},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":962.833226},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":971.196458},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":981.746282},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":984.005726},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":981.197091},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":984.305628},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":990.944868},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1000.060238},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1001.882581},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1009.007877},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1013.174604},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1014.181183},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1022.246894},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1019.35159},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1010.387828},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1005.842014},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1015.79251},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1027.55126},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1031.911299},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1034.149405},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1039.266521},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1045.081804},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1046.195829},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1053.124192},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1057.142671},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1056.085794},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1060.533673},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1059.699581},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1070.741108},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1072.338679},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1075.105874},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1073.156008},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1070.833116},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1079.396863},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1089.305285},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1095.750264},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1095.771686},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1098.363701},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1113.118391},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1128.964052},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1130.283369},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1119.963207},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1118.33078},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1126.854434},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1143.513289},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1145.110656},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1142.953832},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1131.466262},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1136.288673},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1144.15529},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1141.552348},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1140.660047},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1142.509338},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1157.812515},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1168.124967},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1173.846805},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1173.60535},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1180.030052},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1190.664604},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1210.277778}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":69,"firstPeriod":"2020-10-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":69,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1131.466262,"endRent":1210.277778,"change":0.06965432257846671,"cagr":0.06965432257846671},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1053.124192,"endRent":1210.277778,"change":0.1492260715249052,"cagr":0.047454475276298425},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":960.036755,"endRent":1210.277778,"change":0.2606577526294813,"cagr":0.04741656923140236}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0174469120475077,"annualizedVolatility":0.021175784653102908,"consecutiveReturnCount":68}}