Rent and resale are moving in different directions in this ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,658 per month, a 2.8% year-over-year increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it represents neither a lease-specific quote nor a bedroom-specific market average. By contrast, Redfin’s latest direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation records a $374,115 median sold price, down 3.1% from a year earlier. That contrast—higher current asking-rent index alongside lower observed sale prices—is the central cross-universe tension, not evidence that either rental or resale movement determines the other.
The 50263 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,386 median gross rent for occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and therefore does not measure the same thing as ZORI. The 19.6% gap between the ZIP asking-rent index and ACS median gross rent can reflect their distinct populations, timing, and utility treatment, rather than a verified change for any one home. Survey medians characterize collected responses, while ZORI captures a current asking-rent index.
HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR benchmark is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Its local two-bedroom standard is $1,490. Applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,335 for a studio, $1,391 for one bedroom, $1,658 for two bedrooms, $2,259 for three bedrooms, and $2,315 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents: the two-bedroom alignment follows the scaling method, and the overall asking index sits 11.3% above the HUD two-bedroom standard. They should not be substituted for observed listings or lease terms.
At a 30% rent-to-income screen, annual income required to support the current monthly asking index is $66,320. This is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ACS ZCTA reports $102,762 median household income, placing the index at 19.4% of that median when annualized; household-income and rental-index universes remain different. ACS also records 32.6% of renter households as paying 30% or more of income toward rent. That burden statistic reports survey conditions across renter households, not affordability or payment performance for a particular unit, household, or future lease.
Rent history supplies the counterweight to the resale signal. The ZIP series has 100% monthly coverage through its stated endpoint. Exact same-month changes annualize to 2.8% over one year, 1.6% over three years, and 3.1% over five years. The recent direction therefore confirms a positive longer path and runs faster than the three-year pace, although it remains below the five-year pace. Annualized variability in monthly returns is 2.4%, which means a single current rent snapshot warrants qualified confidence rather than certainty. Its maximum drawdown was 3.7%, measured from peak to trough. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 471 for stability, 1,379 for momentum, and 676 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Housing stock provides scale but not a unit-level availability reading. The matched ACS ZCTA contains 12,442 housing units, with a 3.7% vacancy rate and 349 units classified vacant for rent; it also counts 8,615 single-family units. Such counts neither confirm an advertised unit’s vacancy nor establish rent pressure for a specific property. For wider context only, the Waukee city context rent is $1,665, the Dallas County context rent is $1,546, and the Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA metro context rent is $1,310; each is a wider-geography comparator rather than a ZIP observation. The ZIP index lies very near the city figure while exceeding the county and metro context figures.
Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation should remain solely in the for-sale/resale universe, not be treated as rental transactions or rental comparables. It logged 306 homes sold, a median 137 days on market, 373 homes of inventory, and 3.7 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 99.84%, and 16.8% of sales were above list. Together with the price decline stated above, these resale liquidity and pricing signals challenge a simple upward reading from rent history. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals a 5.3% cross-source screening ratio only; it says nothing about property expenses, financing, net performance, or an expected return.
Several limits govern the reading. Zillow provides a blended ZIP asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty among occupied renter homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin is a short rolling resale window. The matched ZCTA, city, county, and metro comparisons cannot resolve the terms of a particular home. Concrete property-level checks are the advertised rent by bedroom and lease duration, whether utilities or fees are included, unit condition and availability date, and comparable sale records with listing and closing dates. Those checks can show whether the broad rent-versus-resale tension actually survives at the property level. Which of these source and property-level distinctions changes the interpretation most for the specific address under review?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index increased while Redfin’s direct resale median fell. The pattern is not internally contradictory because ZORI tracks typical asking rents across rental types, whereas Redfin records closed for-sale activity. The tension makes it important to retain each series in its own universe rather than infer property economics from either one.","title":"Rent-resale divergence"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD’s standards are administrative and bedroom specific, while ZORI is blended across types. Consequently, the outputs are useful for a consistent size-relative screen but are not observed listings, signed leases, or measured bedroom rents.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled, not observed"},{"body":"The required-income figure uses a fixed 30% arithmetic screen applied to the current ZIP asking index. It does not determine who qualifies for a lease. Likewise, ACS rent burden reports survey outcomes for renter households and cannot establish whether any particular unit, household, or future lease will be affordable.","title":"Income screen and burden measure different things"},{"body":"Full historical coverage and modest prior variation make the rent series more interpretable than an isolated observation, but the history remains backward-looking. Exact same-month change rates, drawdown, and discovery ranks describe what the index did through the endpoint only. They contain no projection of future rents, sales, or property-level results.","title":"History is steady but not a forecast"}],"risks":["The Census ZCTA is only a statistical match to the ZIP identifier, and its five-year ACS data summarize occupied renter homes rather than current delivery ZIP boundaries, listings, or any specific property.","The current asking index is blended across rental types, so it cannot identify the rent for an individual bedroom count, building condition, lease length, or utility arrangement without property-level evidence.","Redfin’s rolling resale window captures for-sale closings and marketing signals, not rental transactions; using it to explain a particular lease or an individual property’s operating performance would exceed the evidence.","Vacancy, stock, renter-share, and burden aggregates describe the matched statistical area and do not prove availability, demand, payment risk, or affordability for any advertised unit."],"qa":[{"a":"They are intentionally different measures. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, populations, and utility treatment can create a gap without identifying a change for a specific unit.","q":"Why is the ACS gross-rent figure lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative standards, not asking rents. The estimates preserve a local size relationship for screening but do not replace unit-specific listing, lease, or transaction evidence.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"It converts the current monthly ZIP asking-rent index into annual income at a 30% rent-to-income threshold. This is arithmetic for comparison only. It is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that a household paying a stated rent has the same income, expenses, or eligibility.","q":"What does the required-income screen establish?"},{"a":"No single series overturns another because the datasets observe different markets. The rent history describes ZIP asking-rent index movement, while Redfin describes direct ZIP resale outcomes over a rolling three-month window. Their divergence is a useful tension: it limits a simple unified narrative but does not establish causation, future direction, or property-level economics.","q":"Does the Redfin price decline overturn the rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1428.577282},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1421.399066},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1416.454775},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1414.883077},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1433.075184},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1447.706423},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1447.283774},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1443.586895},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1450.468905},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1461.712855},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1484.630357},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1506.934833},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1533.908413},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1555.499882},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1552.936219},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1556.216994},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1555.642545},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1543.19024},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1542.729965},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1546.426143},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1570.762339},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1587.511616},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1589.518193},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1585.2561},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1575.844087},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1582.674504},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1595.105938},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1616.718932},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1612.657191},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1622.629065},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1631.124038},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1642.712774},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1636.835038},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1640.179106},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1649.977821},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1656.456091},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1641.513523},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1613.327346},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1606.014722},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1598.390438},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1607.281555},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1610.285697},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1614.643596},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1612.179653},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1603.118334},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1601.291259},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1597.980293},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1597.349853},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1595.112621},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1612.42294},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1616.363364},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1615.082776},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1613.628094},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1613.038897},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1610.369538},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1611.220161},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1621.108049},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1623.795786},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1627.932603},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1633.454132},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1651.208382},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1657.646801}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":62,"firstPeriod":"2021-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":62,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1612.42294,"endRent":1657.646801,"change":0.028047145620490932,"cagr":0.028047145620490932},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1582.674504,"endRent":1657.646801,"change":0.047370635472118616,"cagr":0.015547242401467098},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1421.399066,"endRent":1657.646801,"change":0.16620788675824283,"cagr":0.03122918323938939}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03703295869615664,"annualizedVolatility":0.023568251911608905,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}