This ZIP presents a clear split: current asking rent is accelerating, while the direct resale price is essentially flat. Its asking level also remains below several rent reference measures. The 50310 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZORI was $1,023 per month, up 5.54% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level quote. The ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,113 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI therefore sits 8.1% below that ACS figure, a gap that primarily requires source-definition caution rather than a conclusion that one measure is wrong.
The history sharpens that tension rather than turning it into a projection. The exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 5.54% over 1 year, 2.90% over 3 years, and 3.87% over 5 years. The latest pace exceeds both longer annualized paths, so recent direction accelerates rather than breaks from the longer upward record. Complete 100% history coverage produces annualized monthly-return variability of 2.32% and a maximum drawdown of -3.06%. Those measures support more confidence in a current index reading than a sparse series would, but the drawdown shows that the path was not uninterrupted. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 165 on the balanced measure and 620 on momentum, with lower ranks stronger; they describe backward-looking history, not a forecast or investment recommendation.
Bedroom detail should be read as a model rather than an observation. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder generates modelled monthly estimates of $823 for a studio, $863 for one bedroom, $1,023 for two bedrooms, $1,391 for three bedrooms, and $1,431 for four bedrooms. These are not measured bedroom rents. The applicable HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,280, making the current ZIP index 79.9% of that benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, while the modelled estimates merely transfer its local bedroom pattern onto a blended asking-rent index. A unit’s advertised rent can depart from both series.
The household-income screen gives a second, distinct tension. Applying 30% mechanically to annualized ZORI produces $40,920 in required annual income, compared with a ZCTA median household income of $76,381. This arithmetic screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule; it does not establish what any household can pay or what a landlord will require. ACS nevertheless reports that 46.4% of renter households devoted at least thirty percent of income to gross rent. That is a five-year survey burden statistic for occupied renters, not proof that a particular available unit is unaffordable. Its coexistence with a median-income comparison underscores variation hidden by area medians.
Stock composition puts the renter statistics in a wider ZCTA frame. The matched ZCTA has 14,288 housing units, a 6.0% vacancy rate, and a 30.4% renter share. Its structure count includes 10,966 single-family units and 1,309 units in larger multifamily buildings. ACS also classifies 252 vacant units as for rent. These are ACS five-year housing estimates, not a live count of vacant rentals or a promise of current availability. They help describe the mix against which the blended ZORI is observed, yet they cannot show a particular building’s turnover, concessions, condition, or leasing status. The vacancy and burden measures should consequently remain area-level evidence rather than unit-level claims.
Wider geographies place the ZIP level in context but do not replace its direct reading. For wider context only, the Des Moines city scope had a $1,121.36 asking-rent index, the Polk County scope had a $1,259 asking-rent index, and the Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA metro scope had a $1,310 asking-rent index. Each exceeds the ZIP index, consistent with the lower current ZIP level noted above, but these city, county, and metro measures are not ZIP comps or evidence about a listing. The comparison also should not be merged with the ZCTA ACS gross-rent statistic: scope and rent definitions differ. The useful signal is relative positioning across named contexts, not an inferred premium for any home.
The resale record quantifies the split between rent acceleration and flat pricing. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, the median sold price was $239,946, down 0.02% year over year; 185 homes sold with a median 15 days on market. The same resale observation shows 103 homes of inventory, 1.7 months of supply, a 98.76% average sale-to-list ratio, and 17.24% of sales above list. These are for-sale liquidity, pricing, and marketing signals, not rental transactions or rental comps. Annualized ZORI divided by the median sold price is 5.12%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio. Flat resale pricing challenges a simple reading that the recent rent increase is mirrored by price movement, while quick marketing and lean supply provide a separate liquidity signal rather than confirmation of rental affordability.
Evidence limits are material at this ZIP scale. ZORI is an index, the ACS figures are ZCTA survey estimates with sampling uncertainty, HUD is a program standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation; none substitutes for property-level verification. Before relying on the snapshot, check current comparable asking rents by actual bedroom count and rental type, lease length, utility inclusions, concessions, listed availability, condition, and the exact address’s recent sale and list evidence. Check that the property is within the market identifier rather than assuming a USPS address maps identically to the ZCTA. The historical measures summarize a completed record and the resale screen joins unlike sources, so neither answers what an individual unit will rent or sell for. The practical unresolved question is whether the specific unit’s terms resemble the index and model inputs closely enough to make this area-level comparison relevant?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZIP ZORI was $1,023, up 5.54% year over year. It is a blended asking-rent index, whereas the matched ACS ZCTA median gross rent was $1,113 and includes selected utilities. City, county, and metro asking-rent context was higher as well. The relevant decision signal is a lower current ZIP index with a faster recent change, not a direct contradiction among measures.","title":"Current rent is rising but remains below broader reference levels"},{"body":"HUD-scaled bedroom figures translate the ZIP index into a consistent ladder, but they do not measure advertised or leased bedroom rents. The model produces $823 for a studio through $1,431 for four bedrooms by applying local HUD ratios to ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative standard. Confirm actual bedroom count, utilities, condition, concessions, and lease terms before comparing any unit with these estimates.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed rents"},{"body":"Applying the 30% rule arithmetically to annualized ZORI yields $40,920, below the ZCTA median household income of $76,381. This is neither a recommendation nor an applicant qualification test. ACS says 46.4% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on gross rent, an area-level five-year survey result that cannot establish the affordability of a particular home.","title":"Area affordability signals vary beneath the median-income screen"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record shows a nearly unchanged median sold price, rapid marketing time, and lean months of supply. That for-sale evidence cannot be used as rental transactions or rental comps. The 5.12% annualized-ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen. Flat resale pricing complicates the otherwise accelerating rent history, while the turnover signals describe resale liquidity rather than a unit’s rental prospects.","title":"Resale liquidity does not mirror the rent-history signal"}],"risks":["The ZORI value blends rental types and asking observations, so it can differ materially from a particular property’s current advertised rent, lease term, included utilities, condition, or concessions.","ACS estimates apply to the matched ZCTA and cover five survey years of occupied renter homes. Sampling uncertainty, gross-rent utility treatment, and the ZCTA-versus-USPS distinction limit address-level interpretation.","The modelled bedroom ladder imports the local HUD standard’s relative pattern; HUD is administrative rather than observed asking rent, and no estimate establishes availability or pricing for a specific unit.","Redfin is a direct ZIP resale observation over a rolling period, not rental evidence. Flat median sale pricing and the screening ratio cannot establish an individual property’s economics or transaction result."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level, typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. ACS is a five-year survey for the matched Census ZCTA of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. Different coverage, timing, and definitions make the figures complementary rather than interchangeable.","q":"Why can the Zillow and ACS rent readings differ in 50310?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates: ZORI is scaled by the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The model establishes a consistent comparison framework but does not observe leases, advertised units, utilities, concessions, condition, or exact-property bedroom pricing.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZORI by 30 percent to show the income level that would place the index at that share of income. It is arithmetic only, not financial advice, an underwriting conclusion, or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden statistic is separately measured across occupied renter households and cannot tell whether a particular household or listed unit meets that screen.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"It supplies a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale/resale observation: sold-price level and change, sales count, time on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. It does not report rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price makes a cross-source screening ratio only; it should not be treated as property-level economics or an expected outcome.","q":"What does the Redfin block add?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":832.051749},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":831.273517},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":838.310192},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":841.588338},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":845.629937},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":845.548586},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":846.009834},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":854.348397},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":861.653015},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":870.086701},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":872.701439},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":878.445683},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":877.301996},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":885.729048},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":883.997261},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":890.798847},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":897.364348},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":905.4578},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":918.503521},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":926.174791},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":933.144336},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":923.884707},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":920.463894},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":920.77563},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":934.391211},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":933.69821},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":932.690005},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":933.026674},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":937.14969},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":943.024214},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":938.602338},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":928.800596},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":924.979868},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":933.168456},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":942.389668},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":946.303425},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":946.859231},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":955.0687},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":966.814693},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":969.594141},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":972.410014},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":978.539068},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":985.363615},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":986.405173},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":976.264268},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":978.959042},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":988.03558},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":991.488389},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":981.550644},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":966.504977},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":961.197132},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":968.540338},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":977.27689},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":969.020326},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":969.097029},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":976.163831},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":988.805796},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":989.268808},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":983.545133},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":984.060554},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":993.910418},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1006.909937},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1011.700335},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1010.839222},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1008.580362},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1017.88573},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1022.780886}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":969.097029,"endRent":1022.780886,"change":0.05539575026392951,"cagr":0.05539575026392951},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":938.602338,"endRent":1022.780886,"change":0.0896849971409297,"cagr":0.02904331854298081},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":846.009834,"endRent":1022.780886,"change":0.20894680522117914,"cagr":0.03867920863673513}},"maxDrawdown":-0.030551297762096086,"annualizedVolatility":0.02320354381803867,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}