At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI places the typical observed asking-rent index in 50315 at $1,099 per month. Zillow blends rental types in this asking-rent index, so it is neither a lease-level average nor a measured price for a specified bedroom count. At annualized ZORI, a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen equals $43,960 of income; that is below the matched ZCTA’s $60,590 median household income. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant-qualification rule. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The apparent separation between the required-income screen and rent burden reflects different evidence universes, not a contradiction. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, median gross rent was $1,001 and includes selected utilities. That survey figure is lower than Zillow’s current asking index, but it is not an asking-rent statistic: it describes occupied renter homes, with different timing and costs. ACS reports that 48.1% of renter households paid 30% or more of income toward gross rent. Published margins of error also apply. The all-household median income used in the arithmetic screen cannot identify renter earnings, actual utility bills, or affordability for a particular household or unit.
The history provides a more restrained signal: positive but slowing growth. Exact same-month ZORI change was 2.28% over one year, 2.66% annualized over three years, and 4.30% annualized over five years through the stated June endpoint. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path while breaking from its earlier faster pace. Annualizing the monthly changes yields 2.38% variability; against a highly erratic series, that gives a reader more confidence in one current ZIP snapshot, not certainty about individual listings. The recorded peak-to-trough decline reached 1.34%, and coverage reached 98.53%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place momentum at 1,276, stability at 500, and balanced at 615; lower ranks are higher. This record is backward-looking only, not a rent forecast or investment recommendation.
Bedroom detail needs a separate treatment. The FY 2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not a collection of asking rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $885 for a studio, $920 for one bedroom, $1,099 for two bedrooms, $1,492 for three bedrooms, and $1,537 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The identical two-bedroom model figure and blended index arise from the scaling design; they do not count advertised or signed two-bedroom leases. HUD’s purpose and bedroom structure mean its standards must remain separate from Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index.
ACS housing data frame the base that sits behind those area aggregates rather than live supply. The reported ZCTA vacancy rate is 7.7%, while the stock includes 11,526 single-family units and 2,833 units in large multifamily structures. Those are survey housing counts, not current Zillow listings, and they do not state the type, condition, price, or utility treatment of any available rental. Vacancy cannot demonstrate that a particular unit is available, habitable, or priced in line with the index. Likewise, the ZCTA burden share does not prove that a given building or lease is unaffordable. The evidence is useful for describing the area’s surveyed stock and occupied-renter experience, not for resolving a unit-level status question.
For wider-area context only, the City of Des Moines Zillow asking-rent index is $1,121 per month, Polk County’s Zillow asking-rent index is $1,259, and the Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA metro Zillow asking-rent index is $1,310. The ZIP’s current index lies below each broader value, yet these are named city, county, and metro aggregates rather than ZIP rental comps. Geography alone does not reconcile ACS gross rent, the HUD administrative standard, and Zillow asking rent; their source universes differ as well. Read the household-income screen and burden estimate within the matched ZCTA, using the broader geographic figures only to locate the current asking-rent level. None can verify an advertised rent, utility arrangement, lease term, or bedroom designation at an individual address.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation at the supplied endpoint belongs wholly to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. It reports a $199,955 median sold price, up 2.54% year over year, from 135 homes sold; median marketing time was 25 days. Inventory stood at 113 homes after an 8.55% annual increase, with 2.5 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.63%, 22.92% of sales went above list, and 50.74% went off market within two weeks. These are resale liquidity signals, not rental demand. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.60%, only a cross-source screening ratio. The resale price increase broadly confirms the positive rent-history direction, yet rising inventory and an average below-list sale signal challenge any simple reading of uniformly tight conditions.
Limits point to a property-level evidence checklist rather than a conclusion from one aggregate. Verify the current advertised rent, actual bedroom designation, lease length, move-in date, separately billed utilities, concessions, property type, and stated availability. For a resale comparison, inspect recent sales, list-to-sale timing, condition, and the match between the property and Redfin’s direct ZIP resale universe; do not transfer those sales into a rental conclusion. Confirm which local HUD geography supplies the bedroom standard, retain the ZCTA boundary distinction, and account for ACS survey timing. The history is well covered and shows limited recorded variation, but only current listing terms and property documents can resolve a specific unit question. What do the lease and utility records show that ZIP, ZCTA, HUD, and resale measures cannot?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow places the June 2026 typical observed asking-rent index for 50315 at $1,099. The comparison with median household income produces a ZIP-wide arithmetic screen and a required-income figure at the 30% threshold. It does not describe a renter’s actual earnings, utilities, lease terms, or qualification. The matched ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Current index and arithmetic screen"},{"body":"Same-month asking-rent growth remains positive at each stated horizon, but the current annual pace is lower than the longer annualized rates. This confirms a longer upward path while indicating slower recent growth, not a reversal. High coverage, limited annualized monthly variability, and a shallow recorded drawdown make the current index more historically continuous than an intermittent series. Those measurements remain backward-looking and cannot forecast rents or justify an investment recommendation.","title":"History shows growth with a slower recent pace"},{"body":"The listed bedroom amounts are modelled outputs created by applying the HUD bedroom ladder to the blended ZIP ZORI. They give a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom comparison but are not observed rents, completed leases, or a statement of availability. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard and ACS gross rent includes selected utilities, so neither can be substituted for a Zillow asking-rent observation. Verify bedroom count and utilities on the actual listing.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Redfin directly observes ZIP resale activity, where sales occurred, listings moved, and prices were reported over a rolling three-month period. Its price and liquidity signals can be compared with the rent index only as separate market evidence. The annualized rent-to-price figure is a cross-source screen, not a property-specific calculation. Rising resale inventory alongside rent and resale price growth is the main evidence tension requiring property-level review.","title":"Resale evidence creates a mixed liquidity signal"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended current asking-rent index can differ from a property’s advertised rent because bedroom count, property type, lease timing, concessions, and separately billed utilities are not identified in the ZIP index.","ACS burden, income, vacancy, housing stock, and gross rent are matched-ZCTA five-year survey estimates, not a current inventory feed; their boundaries and sampled survey universes cannot identify conditions for a particular address.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The modelled bedroom ladder inherits its relative structure from HUD, so it cannot establish observed ZIP bedroom rents or signed lease payments.","Redfin resale results cover for-sale transactions, not rental transactions. Median price and the cross-source annualized rent-to-price screen omit property condition, expenses, financing, occupancy, and any individual property’s timing."],"qa":[{"a":"They are deliberately different evidence universes. Zillow reports a June 2026 ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS reports a 2024 five-year ZCTA survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, boundaries, occupied households, and cost inclusion mean the values should be compared as context, not treated as conflicting measurements of identical leases.","q":"Why does ACS median gross rent not equal Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. Each studio-through-four-bedroom amount is a modelled monthly ZIP estimate formed by scaling the blended ZORI with the local FY 2026 HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not observed asking rent. The resulting ladder maintains a consistent screen, but it does not count listings, signed leases, utility obligations, or availability for any bedroom.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts measured rents?"},{"a":"The record shows a longer upward history with a slower recent pace, modest annualized monthly change variability, a shallow recorded drawdown, and high coverage. That combination supports more confidence that the current ZORI is not based on a highly discontinuous time series. It cannot eliminate differences between individual listings, and the values remain historical measurements rather than forecasts.","q":"What do the history measures say about confidence in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation describes for-sale activity: sold-price levels and changes, transaction count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It can illuminate whether resale signals move alongside rent history, but it cannot provide rental comps or property-specific economics. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio.","q":"What can the resale data establish about rentals?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":862.621715},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":852.536159},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":862.802641},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":860.591895},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":878.174992},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":883.743064},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":888.514593},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":890.34297},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":888.774953},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":893.519193},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":887.835084},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":894.409752},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":907.869921},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":923.751406},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":928.444159},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":936.663526},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":935.199018},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":935.522546},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":942.853063},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":956.043956},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":964.978239},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":976.045121},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":981.854658},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":982.87179},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":983.059609},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":980.460749},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":993.493924},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":995.11007},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1006.180639},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1011.617914},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1015.905402},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1015.662646},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1010.886787},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1002.261792},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1003.197312},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1004.761197},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1021.048575},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1034.607404},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1033.594332},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1034.529527},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1030.655625},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1039.115653},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1050.701176},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1055.912341},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1060.131404},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1056.028622},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1059.598691},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1065.727826},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1066.238291},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1065.102349},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1055.404564},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1065.293043},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1072.640848},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1081.86351},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1074.526317},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1076.344861},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1081.53219},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1094.456645},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1097.027675},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1097.693848},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1095.068563},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1095.893721},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1106.761592},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1103.938024},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1103.123948},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1095.656375},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1099.010893}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":0.9852941176470589,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1074.526317,"endRent":1099.010893,"change":0.02278639025646112,"cagr":0.02278639025646112},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1015.905402,"endRent":1099.010893,"change":0.08180435977246625,"cagr":0.02655662266040859},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":890.34297,"endRent":1099.010893,"change":0.23436802449285343,"cagr":0.04301110549641973}},"maxDrawdown":-0.013430000444076717,"annualizedVolatility":0.023758441729728658,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}